Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   19 - 1 8 - 0 +23.4      +11.8 6 +11.6 4 67.7 217 +29.2 3 +27.9 1
18 Louisville 96.4%   6   14 - 6 4 - 4 +17.5      +10.6 13 +6.9 28 73.1 72 +14.7 35 +11.7 7
22 Virginia 99.7%   5   17 - 3 6 - 2 +16.8      +10.2 16 +6.5 36 64.2 302 +19.0 16 +19.6 2
24 North Carolina St. 91.5%   8   15 - 6 6 - 2 +15.8      +9.1 24 +6.7 31 71.7 101 +12.6 43 +14.5 4
29 North Carolina 94.3%   7   16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.8      +9.7 20 +5.1 54 71.4 111 +16.9 22 +11.6 8
33 Clemson 95.4%   8   17 - 4 7 - 1 +14.2      +5.2 67 +9.0 15 62.9 330 +16.7 23 +19.5 3
36 SMU 87.7%   8   15 - 5 4 - 3 +13.9      +9.8 18 +4.1 68 71.5 106 +15.3 30 +14.4 5
39 Miami (FL) 72.2%   10   16 - 4 5 - 2 +12.8      +6.4 51 +6.4 38 71.4 113 +14.2 36 +13.7 6
60 Virginia Tech 29.9%   16 - 6 5 - 4 +9.4      +4.6 74 +4.9 57 69.8 155 +12.0 48 +11.1 10
66 California 19.9%   14 - 5 3 - 4 +8.5      +3.8 89 +4.7 61 68.5 188 +12.4 46 +11.5 9
68 Wake Forest 3.6%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +8.3      +3.9 87 +4.5 64 71.8 98 +7.6 75 +5.7 12
77 Syracuse 1.8%   12 - 9 3 - 5 +7.6      +3.9 85 +3.6 77 69.7 160 +6.3 84 +5.2 13
81 Notre Dame 1.4%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +7.1      +3.5 92 +3.7 73 63.8 311 +6.9 82 +4.1 15
84 Stanford 14.4%   14 - 6 3 - 4 +6.8      +2.9 99 +4.0 70 69.2 166 +10.8 57 +10.8 11
93 Pittsburgh 0.1%   9 - 12 2 - 6 +5.9      +4.1 80 +1.7 114 63.2 321 +2.4 123 +2.9 17
106 Florida St. 0.0%   8 - 12 1 - 6 +4.1      +2.9 96 +1.2 130 77.6 18 +1.0 149 +3.5 16
113 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +3.5      -0.3 170 +3.7 71 74.9 40 +1.6 138 +2.7 18
130 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 11 2 - 5 +1.8      -3.1 260 +4.8 58 66.3 253 -0.7 176 +4.4 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 29 North Carolina 85 22 Virginia 80   
Sat, Jan 24 24 North Carolina St. 81 93 Pittsburgh 72   
Sat, Jan 24 106 Florida St. 80 36 SMU 83   
Sat, Jan 24 39 Miami (FL) 85 77 Syracuse 76   
Sat, Jan 24 33 Clemson 77 113 Georgia Tech 63   
Sat, Jan 24 18 Louisville 85 60 Virginia Tech 71   
Sat, Jan 24 66 California 78 84 Stanford 66   
Sat, Jan 24 3 Duke 90 68 Wake Forest 69   
Sat, Jan 24 130 Boston College 64 81 Notre Dame 68   
Mon, Jan 26 3 Duke 83 18 Louisville 52   
Tue, Jan 27 93 Pittsburgh 80 68 Wake Forest 76   
Tue, Jan 27 24 North Carolina St. 88 77 Syracuse 68   
Tue, Jan 27 113 Georgia Tech 65 60 Virginia Tech 71   
Tue, Jan 27 81 Notre Dame 97 22 Virginia 100   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 39 Miami (FL) 80 84 Stanford 71 80%   
Wed, Jan 28 66 California 79 106 Florida St. 78 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 18 Louisville 86 36 SMU 79 74%   
Sat, Jan 31 81 Notre Dame 70 77 Syracuse 73 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 66 California 71 39 Miami (FL) 78 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 24 North Carolina St. 80 68 Wake Forest 76 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 106 Florida St. 80 84 Stanford 79 51%   
Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke 79 60 Virginia Tech 68 85%   
Sat, Jan 31 33 Clemson 73 93 Pittsburgh 62 85%   
Sat, Jan 31 113 Georgia Tech 75 29 North Carolina 83 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 130 Boston College 62 22 Virginia 74 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.1 93.7 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 5.8 0.1 5.0 10.9 14.7 16.8 16.6 14.1 10.8 6.3 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 2.7 8.2 47.7 23.7 11.0 5.2 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.6 2.0 14.6 17.3 18.6 16.4 12.9 8.6 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 6.6 0.3 2.9 6.2 9.8 13.0 15.9 16.8 14.7 9.9 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 3.1 6.9 36.7 26.9 14.5 7.9 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 5.8 0.3 6.0 11.1 14.8 16.0 15.3 13.6 10.2 6.5 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.1 0.7 10.9 14.7 16.9 17.0 14.5 10.6 7.1 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 4.9 9.1 15.2 20.4 20.7 13.6 7.1 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
California 8.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 5.3 8.4 11.4 15.0 16.1 13.0 9.8 6.4 4.2 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2
Wake Forest 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 4.8 7.9 11.2 13.5 14.9 13.8 11.0 8.4 5.2 3.6 1.8
Syracuse 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 6.1 9.5 13.5 16.5 15.7 13.2 9.7 6.2 3.2 1.0
Notre Dame 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.5 4.8 8.5 12.8 15.3 15.4 12.8 10.4 7.5 5.3 3.3
Stanford 10.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 5.3 8.4 12.2 14.4 15.6 12.6 9.6 6.8 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.7
Pittsburgh 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.4 7.9 11.4 14.0 15.5 16.7 14.5 9.7
Florida St. 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.2 9.6 11.6 13.9 14.0 14.8 18.0
Georgia Tech 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.1 12.1 15.4 17.7 17.0 13.5
Boston College 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.5 11.0 14.4 17.1 18.5 17.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 28 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.4 12.4 26.4 33.9 21.6
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.6 11.5 19.8 25.5 22.0 12.1 3.1
Virginia 14 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 5.2 12.9 24.3 30.7 20.7 4.3
North Carolina St. 12 - 6 21 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 12.0 21.3 24.1 19.9 11.1 4.0 0.5
North Carolina 10 - 8 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 9.1 16.8 23.0 22.7 14.9 6.9 2.0 0.2
Clemson 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.7 17.9 25.6 24.4 14.6 4.9 0.6
SMU 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.5 11.7 18.8 22.7 20.5 12.4 5.1 1.0
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 23 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 7.3 15.4 22.3 23.2 17.0 8.2 2.5 0.4
Virginia Tech 9 - 9 20 - 11 0.5 5.0 16.9 28.8 26.6 14.9 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
California 9 - 9 20 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.4 13.6 19.1 20.9 17.8 11.2 4.9 1.5 0.2
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 0.4 2.3 7.2 15.7 22.4 21.9 16.9 9.1 3.1 0.8 0.1
Syracuse 6 - 12 15 - 16 1.5 7.6 18.4 25.8 23.9 14.5 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
Notre Dame 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.5 3.0 10.5 19.7 24.8 22.2 12.9 5.0 1.3 0.2
Stanford 8 - 10 19 - 12 0.5 2.9 9.0 16.8 21.9 20.6 15.2 8.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 12 - 19 2.8 12.5 23.4 26.6 20.1 10.1 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 12 - 19 1.3 6.3 15.6 22.3 22.1 16.9 9.7 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 14 - 17 4.5 16.1 25.6 25.2 16.6 8.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Boston College 5 - 13 12 - 19 6.5 18.4 25.9 23.9 15.0 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 93.7% 84.1 8.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia 8.2% 2.6 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 2.0% 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 6.9% 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0
California 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Stanford
Pittsburgh
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1   70.3 26.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 96.4% 10.1% 86.3% 6   0.5 1.5 4.4 9.2 15.7 18.0 18.0 13.7 8.5 5.1 1.8 0.0 3.6 96.0%
Virginia 99.7% 12.0% 87.6% 5   0.7 2.6 9.0 18.2 24.0 22.7 13.5 5.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 99.6%
North Carolina St. 91.5% 7.4% 84.1% 8   0.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 7.0 12.4 17.8 19.1 15.6 10.9 4.8 0.0 8.5 90.9%
North Carolina 94.3% 4.5% 89.8% 7   0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 11.0 17.7 19.5 17.4 12.5 7.3 2.9 0.0 5.7 94.0%
Clemson 95.4% 6.2% 89.2% 8   0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 9.2 16.8 21.7 19.9 14.1 7.6 2.0 0.0 4.6 95.1%
SMU 87.7% 3.9% 83.8% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 9.5 15.8 18.1 18.2 13.4 5.6 0.0 12.3 87.2%
Miami (FL) 72.2% 3.0% 69.2% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.8 7.3 12.8 16.2 18.1 11.9 0.1 27.8 71.4%
Virginia Tech 29.9% 0.4% 29.5% 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.1 9.6 12.0 0.2 70.1 29.6%
California 19.9% 0.3% 19.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 6.1 9.4 0.1 80.1 19.7%
Wake Forest 3.6% 0.2% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 0.1 96.4 3.4%
Syracuse 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 98.3 1.7%
Notre Dame 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 98.6 1.3%
Stanford 14.4% 0.1% 14.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 5.0 6.0 0.1 85.6 14.4%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.1 0.2 3.1 21.3 44.6 25.8 4.7 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 0.5 6.4 31.4 43.9 16.1 1.6 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.1 0.9 6.6 21.6 33.4 27.1 9.1 1.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.8% 2.2 2.2 21.5 38.5 27.3 8.9 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 78.7% 1.1 21.3 50.8 23.6 4.0 0.3 0.0
Final Four 50.5% 0.6 49.5 44.3 6.0 0.3
Final Game 28.4% 0.3 71.6 27.4 1.0
Champion 15.5% 0.2 84.5 15.5

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 81.0% 56.9% 36.4% 22.1% 13.0%
Louisville 96.4% 2.1% 95.6% 70.7% 31.7% 13.6% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0%
Virginia 99.7% 0.1% 99.6% 78.5% 36.1% 13.9% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6%
North Carolina St. 91.5% 5.2% 89.4% 56.2% 19.2% 7.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
North Carolina 94.3% 3.1% 92.8% 57.3% 18.6% 6.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Clemson 95.4% 2.3% 94.3% 54.9% 15.5% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%
SMU 87.7% 6.1% 84.8% 46.3% 12.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 72.2% 13.0% 66.0% 31.5% 7.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 29.9% 12.9% 22.6% 7.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 19.9% 9.9% 14.2% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 3.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 14.4% 6.3% 10.4% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%