Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
1 Duke 100.0%   1   31 - 2 17 - 1 +26.4      +12.8 6 +13.6 2 65.0 274 +29.2 3 +27.9 1
17 Virginia 100.0%   2   29 - 4 15 - 3 +18.3      +8.9 29 +9.4 16 64.7 282 +21.8 7 +21.4 2
20 Louisville 100.0%   6   23 - 10 11 - 7 +18.2      +10.6 20 +7.6 25 73.1 60 +16.2 24 +15.1 5
28 North Carolina 100.0%   6   24 - 8 12 - 6 +15.3      +9.0 28 +6.3 36 69.8 136 +17.6 21 +16.8 3
31 Miami (FL) 99.8%   7   25 - 8 13 - 5 +14.5      +8.6 33 +5.9 39 69.1 157 +16.2 25 +16.0 4
34 North Carolina St. 77.2%   9   20 - 13 10 - 8 +13.9      +10.5 21 +3.3 84 71.9 89 +12.3 45 +13.0 7
40 Clemson 97.6%   8   24 - 10 12 - 6 +13.5      +5.1 72 +8.5 19 62.2 335 +15.2 31 +14.1 6
42 SMU 47.4%   11   20 - 13 8 - 10 +13.2      +9.7 25 +3.5 81 71.4 101 +11.6 49 +10.3 12
56 Virginia Tech 13.6%   19 - 13 8 - 10 +10.2      +5.9 61 +4.3 69 68.0 192 +10.7 54 +10.4 11
60 Stanford 29.1%   20 - 12 9 - 9 +9.6      +5.6 66 +4.0 73 67.5 201 +10.5 56 +11.1 9
63 Florida St. 3.3%   18 - 15 10 - 8 +9.3      +6.6 54 +2.8 98 75.2 29 +10.1 60 +12.7 8
64 Wake Forest 0.0%   17 - 16 7 - 11 +9.2      +6.3 56 +2.9 94 70.0 133 +9.1 66 +8.3 13
74 California 16.9%   20 - 11 9 - 9 +8.1      +3.4 92 +4.7 57 69.5 146 +10.6 55 +10.6 10
83 Syracuse 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 +7.2      +4.3 82 +3.0 93 68.6 175 +6.7 88 +6.2 14
90 Notre Dame 0.0%   13 - 18 4 - 14 +6.1      +4.4 80 +1.7 127 65.5 258 +5.4 99 +2.7 17
91 Pittsburgh 0.0%   13 - 20 5 - 13 +6.1      +3.6 87 +2.4 108 61.3 345 +4.8 105 +5.1 15
131 Boston College 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 +1.9      -3.2 259 +5.1 54 65.7 256 -0.3 163 +2.8 16
138 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 20 2 - 16 +1.2      -0.7 183 +1.9 122 75.7 24 -1.0 179 -2.1 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Mar 10 56 Virginia Tech 89 64 Wake Forest 95   
Tue, Mar 10 91 Pittsburgh 64 60 Stanford 63   
Tue, Mar 10 42 SMU 86 83 Syracuse 69   
Wed, Mar 11 20 Louisville 62 42 SMU 58   
Wed, Mar 11 34 North Carolina St. 98 91 Pittsburgh 88   
Wed, Mar 11 40 Clemson 71 64 Wake Forest 62   
Wed, Mar 11 74 California 89 63 Florida St. 95   
Thu, Mar 12 1 Duke 80 63 Florida St. 79   
Thu, Mar 12 20 Louisville 73 31 Miami (FL) 78   
Thu, Mar 12 34 North Carolina St. 74 17 Virginia 81   
Thu, Mar 12 40 Clemson 80 28 North Carolina 79   
Fri, Mar 13 40 Clemson 61 1 Duke 73   
Fri, Mar 13 31 Miami (FL) 62 17 Virginia 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Mar 14 1 Duke 74 17 Virginia 66 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 100.0
Virginia 2.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 3.0 100.0
North Carolina 4.0 100.0
Clemson 4.0 100.0
Louisville 6.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 7.0 100.0
Florida St. 7.0 100.0
Stanford 9.0 100.0
California 9.0 100.0
SMU 11.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 11.0 100.0
Wake Forest 13.0 100.0
Syracuse 14.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 15.0 100.0
Boston College 16.0 100.0
Notre Dame 16.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 18.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 32 - 2 100.0
Virginia 15 - 3 29 - 5 100.0
Miami (FL) 13 - 5 25 - 8 100.0
North Carolina 12 - 6 24 - 8 100.0
Clemson 12 - 6 24 - 10 100.0
Louisville 11 - 7 23 - 10 100.0
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 20 - 13 100.0
Florida St. 10 - 8 18 - 15 100.0
Stanford 9 - 9 20 - 12 100.0
California 9 - 9 20 - 11 100.0
SMU 8 - 10 20 - 13 100.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 19 - 13 100.0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 17 - 16 100.0
Syracuse 6 - 12 15 - 17 100.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 13 - 20 100.0
Boston College 4 - 14 11 - 20 100.0
Notre Dame 4 - 14 13 - 18 100.0
Georgia Tech 2 - 16 11 - 20 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 100.0% 100.0
Virginia
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Clemson
Louisville
North Carolina St.
Florida St.
Stanford
California
SMU
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 79.2% 20.8% 1   99.2 0.8 100.0%
Virginia 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2   9.0 36.4 30.8 19.5 4.1 0.2 100.0%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.5 2.4 22.5 54.5 18.0 2.0 0.1 100.0%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.1 0.6 10.9 43.6 37.3 6.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
Miami (FL) 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 7   0.1 1.2 16.1 43.2 30.7 8.1 0.4 0.2 99.8%
North Carolina St. 77.2% 0.0% 77.2% 9   0.0 0.4 4.9 18.4 34.1 18.2 1.2 22.8 77.2%
Clemson 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 8   0.2 5.0 25.3 41.1 23.4 2.7 0.0 2.4 97.6%
SMU 47.4% 0.0% 47.4% 11   0.4 3.6 19.7 23.4 0.3 52.6 47.4%
Virginia Tech 13.6% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0 0.5 11.4 1.7 86.4 13.6%
Stanford 29.1% 0.0% 29.1% 0.1 1.0 8.4 19.5 0.2 70.9 29.1%
Florida St. 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 2.4 0.9 0.0 96.7 3.3%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
California 16.9% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0 0.9 14.2 1.8 83.1 16.9%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.1 4.8 29.9 43.4 19.1 2.6 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.1 7.9 44.7 38.5 8.4 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 5.0 0.0 0.8 6.5 23.0 36.5 25.3 7.0 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.8% 2.4 1.2 14.8 42.3 31.0 9.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 85.5% 1.3 14.5 49.0 30.6 5.6 0.3 0.0
Final Four 61.5% 0.7 38.5 53.8 7.5 0.2
Final Game 37.9% 0.4 62.1 36.9 1.1
Champion 21.8% 0.2 78.2 21.8

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 88.8% 68.9% 51.7% 33.2% 20.3%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.9% 60.3% 27.0% 9.0% 3.2% 1.0%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.7% 35.1% 15.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 64.9% 20.9% 7.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 56.1% 12.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 77.2% 0.7% 76.9% 36.6% 5.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Clemson 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 48.3% 8.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 47.4% 19.5% 38.9% 15.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 13.6% 12.7% 6.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 29.1% 17.1% 19.2% 4.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 3.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 16.9% 15.4% 7.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%