Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   10 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +22.6      +11.0 10 +11.6 2 67.5 237 +28.1 3 0.0 1
10 Louisville 99.1%   3   9 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.8      +12.3 4 +6.5 29 74.8 51 +20.3 13 0.0 1
22 North Carolina 93.2%   5   9 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15.2      +7.7 35 +7.5 17 72.0 116 +21.1 12 0.0 1
25 Virginia 89.4%   7   9 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14.9      +10.0 14 +4.8 50 66.8 254 +16.9 22 0.0 1
29 North Carolina St. 72.3%   9   7 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +14.1      +9.1 20 +5.1 48 73.0 82 +9.5 64 0.0 1
33 Miami (FL) 67.7%   9   9 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13.2      +6.1 56 +7.2 21 73.3 77 +14.3 35 0.0 1
36 Clemson 66.4%   10   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +12.6      +6.8 48 +5.8 34 62.3 345 +12.5 46 0.0 1
39 SMU 65.9%   10   9 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.0      +7.6 38 +4.4 62 73.2 79 +15.4 29 0.0 1
51 Wake Forest 39.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +10.8      +5.4 63 +5.4 42 73.6 68 +10.3 56 0.0 1
55 Notre Dame 36.8%   9 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +9.6      +5.1 66 +4.6 59 63.7 321 +13.7 37 0.0 1
64 Virginia Tech 25.4%   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +8.5      +5.2 65 +3.4 74 71.7 125 +13.0 40 0.0 1
68 Syracuse 11.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.1      +3.2 95 +4.8 51 69.7 180 +7.0 85 0.0 1
82 California 17.1%   9 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +7.3      +4.3 76 +3.0 82 68.7 209 +14.6 32 0.0 1
93 Stanford 5.6%   8 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 12 +5.6      +3.2 97 +2.4 96 73.9 66 +7.2 82 0.0 1
105 Florida St. 0.5%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +4.0      +2.2 114 +1.9 109 82.1 7 0.0 170 0.0 1
107 Pittsburgh 0.5%   5 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 13 +3.8      +3.7 87 +0.1 162 62.0 352 +0.1 168 0.0 1
131 Georgia Tech 0.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +1.8      -2.7 239 +4.5 60 74.0 65 -0.8 184 0.0 1
150 Boston College 0.0%   5 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.7      -2.4 235 +3.1 81 66.9 252 -4.2 235 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 173 Idaho 65 55 Notre Dame 80   
Wed, Dec 10 150 Boston College 74 152 Massachusetts 76   
Wed, Dec 10 108 Liberty 45 29 North Carolina St. 85   
Thu, Dec 11 171 Saint Joseph's 63 68 Syracuse 71   
Thu, Dec 11 64 Virginia Tech 96 294 Western Carolina 74   
Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas 77 29 North Carolina St. 76   
Sat, Dec 13 35 LSU 89 39 SMU 77   
Sat, Dec 13 10 Louisville 99 76 Memphis 73   
Sat, Dec 13 115 Hofstra 70 68 Syracuse 69   
Sat, Dec 13 107 Pittsburgh 61 37 Villanova 79   
Sat, Dec 13 105 Florida St. 95 152 Massachusetts 103   
Sat, Dec 13 188 San Jose St. 82 93 Stanford 86   
Sat, Dec 13 36 Clemson 70 169 Mercer 63   
Sat, Dec 13 82 California 79 274 Northwestern St. 70   
Sat, Dec 13 276 Evansville 58 55 Notre Dame 82   
Sat, Dec 13 22 North Carolina 80 261 South Carolina Upstate 62   
Sat, Dec 13 33 Miami (FL) 104 358 Louisiana Monroe 79   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 191 Queens 74 51 Wake Forest 89 92%   
Sun, Dec 14 343 Maryland Eastern Shore 57 64 Virginia Tech 80 97%   
Tue, Dec 16 10 Louisville 77 18 Tennessee 78 51%   
Tue, Dec 16 36 Clemson 73 87 South Carolina 63 82%   
Tue, Dec 16 72 Dayton 83 105 Florida St. 76 74%   
Tue, Dec 16 131 Georgia Tech 69 155 Marist 64 67%   
Tue, Dec 16 123 East Tennessee St. 67 22 North Carolina 83 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 186 Florida International 69 33 Miami (FL) 87 94%   
Tue, Dec 16 2 Duke 85 142 Lipscomb 61 98%   
Wed, Dec 17 93 Stanford 77 177 Texas Arlington 67 82%   
Wed, Dec 17 310 Longwood 67 51 Wake Forest 89 97%   
Wed, Dec 17 328 Mercyhurst 58 68 Syracuse 79 96%   
Wed, Dec 17 29 North Carolina St. 91 306 Texas Southern 66 98%   
Wed, Dec 17 356 Binghamton 59 107 Pittsburgh 80 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.8 64.2 17.7 8.2 4.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.5 22.6 22.9 16.2 11.6 8.5 5.9 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 5.6 7.4 11.4 12.2 12.1 11.5 10.2 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 3.2 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 5.0 9.1 15.1 14.4 13.3 11.2 9.4 7.4 6.0 4.5 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.9 5.9 10.9 11.4 11.5 10.8 10.2 9.2 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.3 6.6 13.8 13.8 12.6 11.6 10.0 8.4 6.7 5.3 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Clemson 6.0 5.0 10.2 11.6 12.0 11.5 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.2 4.9 3.9 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
SMU 7.7 2.2 5.5 6.9 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.7 8.0 6.8 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3
Wake Forest 8.3 1.5 4.0 5.8 6.9 7.5 8.5 8.9 9.6 9.2 8.9 7.8 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.4
Notre Dame 8.7 1.2 2.7 4.6 6.1 6.9 8.3 9.0 9.9 9.6 9.3 8.3 7.3 5.8 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.5
Virginia Tech 10.8 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.6 10.6 10.8 10.5 9.1 6.8 4.5 2.8 1.2
Syracuse 10.6 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.8 4.9 6.4 7.7 8.8 9.4 9.9 10.5 9.4 7.4 6.2 4.7 2.9 1.5
California 10.7 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.9 4.9 6.3 7.4 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.0 6.8 5.0 3.4 2.0
Stanford 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 3.2 4.0 5.3 6.6 8.4 9.6 11.1 11.8 11.3 10.2 7.7 5.2
Florida St. 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.7 9.9 12.2 12.9 13.5 12.5 9.5
Pittsburgh 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.9 5.6 7.6 9.8 11.3 13.0 14.2 13.9 11.4
Georgia Tech 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 4.3 6.0 8.1 11.0 13.5 16.1 17.7 15.8
Boston College 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.9 8.5 11.7 15.9 20.7 26.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.1 8.7 14.8 20.2 22.5 17.4 7.7
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 14.4 17.2 17.9 14.4 9.2 3.8 0.9
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.3 9.9 13.3 15.7 16.1 13.5 9.8 5.7 2.5 0.7 0.1
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.6 7.7 11.8 14.4 16.8 15.6 12.0 7.9 4.0 1.1 0.2
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.4 7.1 11.1 13.9 15.6 15.4 12.6 8.8 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.4 8.8 12.8 15.5 16.6 14.6 11.0 6.4 3.1 0.9 0.2
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.4 7.1 10.4 14.3 16.1 15.6 12.5 8.9 4.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.6 11.8 14.5 15.0 13.9 11.3 7.8 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.7 9.8 13.4 15.1 14.7 12.5 9.4 6.4 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.4 7.7 10.9 14.6 15.4 14.6 12.2 8.5 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.3 9.6 14.1 16.1 16.2 13.8 9.7 6.3 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.3 8.9 12.4 15.2 15.3 14.1 10.9 6.9 4.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.8 9.2 12.6 14.8 14.6 13.4 10.5 7.0 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.8 11.8 14.6 16.0 14.7 11.9 8.2 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 0.6 2.8 6.9 11.5 14.8 17.1 15.2 12.0 8.5 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 0.8 3.4 8.0 12.7 15.8 16.4 15.1 11.5 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 1.1 4.8 10.6 16.0 18.6 16.9 13.5 9.0 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 2.6 8.4 15.5 18.8 18.3 15.0 9.8 5.9 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 64.2% 48.7 12.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 22.6% 13.0 6.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 7.4% 3.4 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Virginia 9.1% 4.2 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.9% 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 6.6% 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 5.0% 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
SMU 2.2% 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech
Boston College 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1   49.1 32.0 11.8 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 99.1% 20.2% 78.9% 3   10.7 17.9 20.7 18.2 12.4 8.2 4.9 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 98.9%
North Carolina 93.2% 7.4% 85.8% 5   1.6 4.3 9.2 13.0 14.8 14.7 11.9 9.3 6.7 4.8 2.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 92.7%
Virginia 89.4% 7.2% 82.1% 7   0.9 2.4 6.1 9.3 12.0 13.5 12.8 11.2 9.9 7.5 3.7 0.1 10.7 88.5%
North Carolina St. 72.3% 5.4% 66.9% 9   0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.6 9.0 11.4 12.4 10.6 9.5 5.7 0.2 0.0 27.7 70.8%
Miami (FL) 67.7% 4.6% 63.1% 9   0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.5 7.4 9.1 10.3 11.1 11.5 7.4 0.2 32.3 66.2%
Clemson 66.4% 3.7% 62.8% 10   0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.6 9.0 11.1 12.0 12.3 7.8 0.2 0.0 33.6 65.2%
SMU 65.9% 2.4% 63.5% 10   0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.4 6.6 9.2 11.1 11.7 11.5 7.6 0.2 34.1 65.1%
Wake Forest 39.9% 1.7% 38.2% 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.8 7.4 9.7 8.0 0.3 60.1 38.8%
Notre Dame 36.8% 1.0% 35.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.1 5.1 7.1 9.5 8.6 0.3 63.2 36.2%
Virginia Tech 25.4% 0.5% 24.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.0 6.4 0.2 0.0 74.6 25.0%
Syracuse 11.1% 0.4% 10.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.3 3.5 0.1 88.9 10.8%
California 17.1% 0.4% 16.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.8 5.5 0.2 82.9 16.8%
Stanford 5.6% 0.1% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.0 0.1 94.4 5.4%
Florida St. 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.5%
Pittsburgh 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.5%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 77.8% 53.0% 32.8% 18.4% 9.9%
Louisville 99.1% 0.6% 98.9% 87.5% 55.0% 27.9% 13.3% 6.0% 2.4%
North Carolina 93.2% 3.2% 91.7% 65.1% 28.9% 10.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Virginia 89.4% 4.2% 87.4% 59.1% 24.3% 9.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
North Carolina St. 72.3% 6.8% 69.3% 43.1% 15.1% 5.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 67.7% 8.6% 63.5% 37.1% 11.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Clemson 66.4% 9.0% 61.9% 33.6% 9.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
SMU 65.9% 8.9% 61.3% 32.5% 8.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Wake Forest 39.9% 9.2% 35.1% 17.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Notre Dame 36.8% 9.9% 31.3% 13.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 25.4% 7.3% 21.3% 8.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 11.1% 4.0% 9.1% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 17.1% 6.3% 13.4% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 5.6% 2.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.1 1.1 8.1 25.9 35.8 22.2 6.0 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.2 2.5 14.6 33.0 32.9 14.0 2.6 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 1.1 7.5 22.7 33.6 24.9 8.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.3% 2.4 1.7 15.7 37.1 32.0 11.4 1.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 80.6% 1.2 19.4 46.9 27.9 5.3 0.4 0.0
Final Four 51.7% 0.6 48.3 44.1 7.3 0.3 0.0
Final Game 27.7% 0.3 72.3 26.7 1.0
Champion 13.5% 0.1 86.5 13.5