North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#29
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#64
Pace73.0#82
Improvement-1.6#293

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#20
First Shot+8.8#14
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#58
Freethrows+2.4#62
Improvement-3.7#362

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+1.8#111
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#17
Layups/Dunks+6.9#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#347
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+2.1#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.9% 6.9% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 22.5% 22.6% 8.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.3% 72.5% 56.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.8% 70.9% 54.6%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.6
.500 or above 95.5% 95.6% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 85.4% 74.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 5.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four6.8% 6.7% 12.6%
First Round69.3% 69.5% 49.4%
Second Round43.1% 43.2% 29.4%
Sweet Sixteen15.1% 15.2% 5.6%
Elite Eight5.8% 5.8% 1.5%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 35 - 016 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 349 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +33.6 +31.3 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 7 110 UAB W 94-70 89%     2 - 0 +24.8 +16.0 +7.3
  Wed, Nov 12 281 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 98%     3 - 0 +36.5 +25.1 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 17 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 73%     4 - 0 +13.9 +13.1 +0.5
  Mon, Nov 24 56 Seton Hall L 74-85 67%     4 - 1 -1.4 +4.3 -5.2
  Tue, Nov 25 46 Boise St. W 81-70 62%     5 - 1 +22.0 +15.1 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 41 Texas L 97-102 59%     5 - 2 +6.9 +25.0 -18.0
  Wed, Dec 3 28 @Auburn L 73-83 37%     5 - 3 +7.4 +5.6 +1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 227 UNC Asheville W 75-63 96%     6 - 3 +5.3 +0.6 +5.2
  Wed, Dec 10 108 Liberty W 85-45 89%     7 - 3 +40.8 +14.7 +27.7
  Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas L 76-77 OT 51%     7 - 4 +12.8 +7.1 +5.8
  Wed, Dec 17 306 Texas Southern W 91-66 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 60 Mississippi W 78-73 68%    
  Wed, Dec 31 51 Wake Forest W 83-77 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 25 Virginia W 80-78 58%    
  Tue, Jan 6 150 @Boston College W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 105 @Florida St. W 88-81 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 Georgia Tech W 84-69 92%    
  Tue, Jan 20 36 @Clemson L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 107 @Pittsburgh W 78-71 75%    
  Tue, Jan 27 68 Syracuse W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 @Wake Forest W 81-80 52%    
  Tue, Feb 3 39 @SMU L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 64 Virginia Tech W 84-75 78%    
  Mon, Feb 9 10 @Louisville L 80-88 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 Miami (FL) W 81-77 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 22 North Carolina W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 25 @Virginia L 77-81 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 55 @Notre Dame W 75-74 56%    
  Mon, Mar 2 2 Duke L 74-79 31%    
  Sat, Mar 7 93 Stanford W 87-75 85%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.9 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 5.7 1.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.6 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.0 1.2 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.0 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.5 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.4 7.1 11.1 13.9 15.6 15.4 12.6 8.8 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 76.4% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-3 44.6% 2.4    0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 13.8% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.0% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.8% 99.9% 12.1% 87.8% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 12.6% 98.5% 8.4% 90.1% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.4%
12-6 15.4% 94.8% 5.6% 89.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.8 94.5%
11-7 15.6% 86.0% 3.5% 82.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 2.2 85.4%
10-8 13.9% 67.4% 2.1% 65.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 2.0 0.0 4.5 66.7%
9-9 11.1% 41.9% 1.1% 40.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.1 6.4 41.3%
8-10 7.1% 14.9% 0.6% 14.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 14.4%
7-11 4.4% 3.1% 0.2% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 2.9%
6-12 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 72.3% 5.4% 66.9% 7.5 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.6 9.0 11.4 12.4 10.6 9.5 5.7 0.2 0.0 27.7 70.8%