North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.8 #29
Expected Predictive Rating +16.9 #22
Pace 71.4 #111
Improvement -3.2 #317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #20 B+ B B+ B- B-
Defense #54 B+ A- D+ A+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.30 #44 +4.8 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #272 0.85 #55 -0.8 #223
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.13 #47 +2.9 #86
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #25 +6.9 #24
Freethrows 0.36 #37 68% #311 0.24 #101
Second Chance 35.5% #50 1.14 #72 0.40 #42
Turnovers 13.1% #19
Total Offense +9.7 #20

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #334 0.98 #14 +7.0 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #16 0.65 #30 -1.4 #293
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.04 #224 -0.1 #178
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #38 +5.5 #38
Freethrows 0.20 #5 69% #43 0.14 #3
Second Chance 25.3% #27 0.86 #11 0.22 #8
Turnovers 14.4% #300
Total Defense +5.1 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #78 -3.0% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.8% #24 -8.0% #47
Possession Length 15.4 #30 19.3 #361
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #65 0.09 #9
Improvement +1.8 #91 -5.1 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.1% 7.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 34.8% 38.9% 19.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 95.9% 88.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.0% 95.7% 88.2%
Average Seed 7.2 7.0 7.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 91.1% 69.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 2.4% 5.9%
First Round92.8% 94.8% 85.7%
Second Round57.3% 59.8% 48.2%
Sweet Sixteen18.6% 20.2% 12.6%
Elite Eight6.7% 7.4% 4.2%
Final Four2.5% 2.8% 1.4%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 8
Quad 24 - 211 - 9
Quad 37 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 97% +24  1 - 0 +33 +11 B+ A+ B- +19 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 17 Kansas W 87 - 74 49% +2  2 - 0 +28 +22 A+ D+ C- +6 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 255 Radford W 89 - 74 97% +11  3 - 0 +7 -3 D- C- B+ +7 A+ B+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 342 NC Central W 97 - 53 99% +20  4 - 0 +29 +17 B- A+ B +13 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 183 Navy W 73 - 61 95% +10  5 - 0 +7 -0 B D- D +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 150 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 90% +11  6 - 0 +16 +9 B B+ D+ +6 B A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 6 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 29% -4  6 - 1 +5 +7 C C+ A -5 C B C
 Tue, Dec 2 27 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 37% -2  7 - 1 +21 +10 D+ A+ D+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 90 Georgetown W 81 - 61 86% +7  8 - 1 +23 +8 A- D A- +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 307 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98% +8  9 - 1 +7 +11 B C+ A+ -3 B- C F
 Tue, Dec 16 129 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 92% +10  10 - 1 +18 +15 A- A+ A+ +5 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 35 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 53% +4  11 - 1 +15 +9 B- B A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 253 East Carolina W 99 - 51 97% +24  12 - 1 +40 +17 A+ B C+ +19 A+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 106 Florida St. W 79 - 66 89% +7  13 - 1 1 - 0 +14 +6 C- B- A+ +8 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 3 36 @SMU L 83 - 97 42% -5  13 - 2 1 - 1 +3 +17 A+ D- A- -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 68 Wake Forest W 87 - 84 81% +8  14 - 2 2 - 1 +8 +16 A- A+ C+ -7 D- B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 84 @Stanford L 90 - 95 69% +5  14 - 3 2 - 2 +5 +19 A+ A A -14 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 66 @California L 78 - 84 63% -11  14 - 4 2 - 3 +5 +11 A+ C C+ -5 C F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 81 Notre Dame W 91 - 69 84% +14  15 - 4 3 - 3 +26 +22 A+ A+ B+ +5 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 22 @Virginia W 85 - 80 32% -0  16 - 4 4 - 3 +25 +23 A+ D+ A+ +2 B+ B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 113 @Georgia Tech W 83 - 75 78%
 Mon, Feb 2 77 Syracuse W 83 - 73 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke L 74 - 80 30%
 Tue, Feb 10 39 @Miami (FL) L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 93 Pittsburgh W 82 - 70 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 83 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 77 @Syracuse W 80 - 76 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 18 Louisville W 83 - 82 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 60 Virginia Tech W 82 - 74 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 33 Clemson W 74 - 70 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 71 - 83 14%
Totals 22 - 9 10 - 8 +15 +10 B+ B B+ +5 B+ A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 3.3 0.5 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 6.1 1.9 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 7.0 5.0 0.3 13.0 5th
6th 0.2 4.9 9.6 1.2 15.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 10.4 3.7 0.0 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 7.2 6.0 0.4 14.7 8th
9th 0.1 3.2 5.5 1.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.8 3.2 1.3 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 9.1 16.8 23.0 22.7 14.9 6.9 2.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 68.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 9.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.0% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.9% 99.9% 10.6% 89.4% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 14.9% 99.8% 7.6% 92.2% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.3 5.4 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
11-7 22.7% 99.4% 5.5% 94.0% 6.6 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.9 7.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
10-8 23.0% 97.9% 2.8% 95.1% 7.6 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.3 7.4 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.5 97.8%
9-9 16.8% 94.3% 1.7% 92.6% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.7 5.1 2.7 0.4 1.0 94.2%
8-10 9.1% 81.5% 1.4% 80.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.8 1.3 1.7 81.2%
7-11 3.5% 55.7% 0.9% 54.9% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.6 55.3%
6-12 1.0% 23.1% 0.5% 22.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 22.7%
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.3% 4.5% 89.8% 7.2 5.7 94.0%