North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#22
Expected Predictive Rating+21.1#12
Pace72.0#116
Improvement-1.7#299

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#35
First Shot+4.8#62
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#33
Layup/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#219
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement-1.8#307

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#17
First Shot+5.5#37
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#54
Layups/Dunks+4.9#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#253
Freethrows+5.4#5
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 6.2% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 28.1% 29.3% 14.1%
Top 6 Seed 57.7% 59.1% 41.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.2% 93.8% 86.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.7% 93.3% 85.4%
Average Seed 5.9 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 87.9% 79.4%
Conference Champion 7.4% 7.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four3.2% 2.9% 6.1%
First Round91.7% 92.4% 83.0%
Second Round65.1% 66.3% 51.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.9% 29.7% 19.3%
Elite Eight10.8% 11.1% 6.8%
Final Four4.0% 4.1% 2.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 283 Central Arkansas W 94-54 98%     1 - 0 +30.5 +12.0 +15.6
  Fri, Nov 7 17 Kansas W 87-74 55%     2 - 0 +26.8 +22.3 +4.4
  Tue, Nov 11 267 Radford W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 +6.3 -1.0 +5.1
  Fri, Nov 14 349 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +28.6 +18.6 +9.9
  Tue, Nov 18 204 Navy W 73-61 96%     5 - 0 +6.2 -1.1 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 25 113 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 86%     6 - 0 +18.4 +12.4 +5.7
  Thu, Nov 27 12 Michigan St. L 58-74 39%     6 - 1 +1.9 +5.1 -5.6
  Tue, Dec 2 21 @Kentucky W 67-64 37%     7 - 1 +21.6 +10.2 +11.7
  Sun, Dec 7 101 Georgetown W 81-61 89%     8 - 1 +21.9 +7.0 +14.5
  Sat, Dec 13 261 South Carolina Upstate W 80-62 98%     9 - 1 +9.5 +12.1 -0.9
  Tue, Dec 16 123 East Tennessee St. W 83-68 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 31 Ohio St. W 79-77 56%    
  Mon, Dec 22 287 East Carolina W 87-62 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 105 Florida St. W 89-75 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 39 @SMU W 79-78 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 Wake Forest W 81-74 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 93 @Stanford W 82-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 82 @California W 78-73 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 55 Notre Dame W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 25 @Virginia L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 131 @Georgia Tech W 79-69 82%    
  Mon, Feb 2 68 Syracuse W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 2 Duke L 72-76 34%    
  Tue, Feb 10 33 @Miami (FL) L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 107 Pittsburgh W 80-66 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 29 @North Carolina St. L 78-80 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 68 @Syracuse W 77-73 64%    
  Mon, Feb 23 10 Louisville L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 64 Virginia Tech W 82-72 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 36 Clemson W 74-68 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 2 @Duke L 69-79 17%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.0 2.7 0.3 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.0 2.8 0.3 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.2 3.6 0.4 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.0 5.0 0.8 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.6 1.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.7 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.9 3.6 0.5 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.3 9.9 13.3 15.7 16.1 13.5 9.8 5.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 86.3% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 47.8% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
14-4 15.2% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 3.4 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.9 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.8% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.6 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 4.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.1% 99.9% 7.5% 92.4% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.9 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.7% 99.3% 4.8% 94.4% 6.4 0.2 0.9 2.8 4.7 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 13.3% 97.7% 2.5% 95.1% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.5 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.3 97.6%
9-9 9.9% 92.4% 1.7% 90.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.8 92.3%
8-10 6.3% 78.2% 1.1% 77.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.4 78.0%
7-11 3.6% 49.0% 0.5% 48.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.8 48.8%
6-12 1.7% 21.9% 0.4% 21.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 21.6%
5-13 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.3%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 93.2% 7.4% 85.8% 5.9 1.6 4.3 9.2 13.0 14.8 14.7 11.9 9.3 6.7 4.8 2.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 92.7%