SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#39
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#29
Pace73.2#79
Improvement-1.9#305

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#38
First Shot+5.3#54
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#53
Layup/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#298
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot+4.0#52
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#156
Layups/Dunks+2.9#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement-1.8#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.6% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 14.6% 14.8% 5.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.9% 66.4% 45.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.1% 65.5% 44.4%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 97.7% 98.0% 88.1%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 69.8% 52.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 2.1%
First Four8.9% 9.0% 7.6%
First Round61.3% 61.7% 40.8%
Second Round32.5% 32.8% 18.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 9.0% 3.5%
Elite Eight2.8% 2.9% 0.9%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 27 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 Tarleton St. W 96-76 94%     1 - 0 +14.4 +17.2 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 6 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 95%     2 - 0 +4.7 -2.8 +7.7
  Tue, Nov 11 100 Murray St. W 102-91 83%     3 - 0 +12.9 +13.5 -2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 54 Butler W 87-85 69%     4 - 0 +8.9 +10.1 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 18 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +30.3 +13.0 +11.3
  Fri, Nov 21 153 Arkansas St. W 100-69 91%     6 - 0 +28.4 +13.0 +11.4
  Mon, Nov 24 267 Radford W 89-72 96%     7 - 0 +8.3 +2.6 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 80 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 57%     8 - 0 +16.3 +8.4 +7.2
  Wed, Dec 3 11 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 19%     8 - 1 +2.3 +6.2 -4.5
  Sun, Dec 7 49 Texas A&M W 93-80 OT 55%     9 - 1 +23.8 +8.7 +12.9
  Sat, Dec 13 35 LSU L 77-89 47%     9 - 2 +0.8 +16.4 -16.7
  Sun, Dec 21 283 Central Arkansas W 87-65 98%    
  Sun, Dec 28 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 96-75 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 22 North Carolina L 78-79 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 36 @Clemson L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Duke L 69-83 10%    
  Wed, Jan 14 64 Virginia Tech W 83-77 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 25 Virginia W 79-78 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 51 @Wake Forest L 79-81 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 105 Florida St. W 90-79 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 10 @Louisville L 78-88 19%    
  Tue, Feb 3 29 North Carolina St. W 82-81 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 107 @Pittsburgh W 77-72 68%    
  Tue, Feb 10 55 Notre Dame W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 68 @Syracuse W 77-76 53%    
  Tue, Feb 17 10 Louisville L 81-85 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 150 Boston College W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Feb 25 82 @California W 79-77 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 93 @Stanford W 82-79 62%    
  Wed, Mar 4 33 Miami (FL) W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 105 @Florida St. W 87-82 67%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 4.3 2.1 0.2 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.3 2.5 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.2 4.4 0.6 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 5.0 1.5 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.1 2.9 0.2 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 3.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.6 11.8 14.5 15.0 13.9 11.3 7.8 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 80.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 46.7% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 14.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.4% 99.9% 8.1% 91.9% 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 7.8% 99.5% 6.5% 93.0% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 11.3% 97.7% 4.3% 93.5% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.6%
11-7 13.9% 92.9% 2.5% 90.3% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.9 3.5 1.9 0.4 1.0 92.7%
10-8 15.0% 82.4% 1.3% 81.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 3.8 3.9 1.3 2.6 82.2%
9-9 14.5% 64.8% 0.9% 63.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.0 5.1 64.5%
8-10 11.8% 36.0% 0.4% 35.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 0.1 7.5 35.8%
7-11 8.6% 13.5% 0.1% 13.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 7.5 13.4%
6-12 5.4% 2.3% 0.2% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3 2.1%
5-13 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.8 0.1%
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 65.9% 2.4% 63.5% 8.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.4 6.6 9.2 11.1 11.7 11.5 7.6 0.2 34.1 65.1%