SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.9 #36
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #30
Pace 71.5 #106
Improvement -0.2 #188

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #18 A- B B- C+ D+
Defense #68 B- B- B- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 1.31 #34 +2.7 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #68 0.95 #14 +4.8 #12
Three Pointers 35% #303 1.18 #14 +0.0 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #18 +7.6 #18
Freethrows 0.31 #173 77% #39 0.24 #121
Second Chance 37.3% #23 1.05 #170 0.39 #53
Turnovers 14.6% #74
Total Offense +9.8 #18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.15 #167 +4.4 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.69 #77 -0.7 #231
Three Pointers 45% #80 0.98 #125 -1.0 #225
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #90 +2.7 #90
Freethrows 0.26 #58 70% #86 0.18 #48
Second Chance 29.9% #151 0.93 #42 0.28 #85
Turnovers 18.3% #72
Total Defense +4.1 #68

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #293 -2.0% #42
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.6% #7 -3.4% #117
Possession Length 15.5 #36 18.7 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.13 #51
Improvement +1.2 #121 -1.3 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 5.9% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 16.7% 32.7% 10.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.7% 95.1% 84.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.2% 94.8% 84.4%
Average Seed 8.0 7.2 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 98.1% 90.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.1% 1.9% 7.7%
First Round84.8% 94.3% 81.2%
Second Round46.3% 57.3% 42.2%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 17.5% 10.8%
Elite Eight4.3% 6.2% 3.6%
Final Four1.3% 2.0% 1.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 187 Tarleton St. W 96 - 76 95% +7  1 - 0 +15 +17 B+ F+ A+ -3 B+ B+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 58 95% +2  2 - 0 +6 -1 D- F A+ +8 B+ A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 101 Murray St. W 102 - 91 86% +9  3 - 0 +13 +13 B- B B -1 C C- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 58 Butler W 87 - 85 76% -0  4 - 0 +9 +11 A+ B- F -2 F+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106 - 60 99% +25  5 - 0 +33 +13 A+ F+ C +14 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 151 Arkansas St. W 100 - 69 93% +15  6 - 0 +29 +12 A+ F A- +13 B+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 255 Radford W 89 - 72 97% +11  7 - 0 +9 +1 D+ B+ D- +6 A+ D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 85 @Mississippi St. W 87 - 81 OT 65% -1  8 - 0 +16 +9 C+ A+ C +6 A- A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 12 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 88 22% -9  8 - 1 +3 +8 C A+ C -6 D+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 30 Texas A&M W 93 - 80 OT 47% +5  9 - 1 +28 +10 C- A+ A+ +15 A A- A
 Sat, Dec 13 41 LSU L 77 - 89 57% -7  9 - 2 +0 +15 A+ B+ C -16 F+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 233 Central Arkansas W 99 - 82 96% +11  10 - 2 +10 +23 A+ A+ C+ -13 D- F A
 Sun, Dec 28 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 110 - 63 96% +25  11 - 2 +41 +26 A+ B+ A+ +11 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 29 North Carolina W 97 - 83 58% +5  12 - 2 1 - 0 +26 +29 A+ C A -3 D A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 33 @Clemson L 70 - 74 37% -7  12 - 3 1 - 1 +13 +12 C- A+ D +1 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 3 @Duke L 75 - 82 12% -4  12 - 4 1 - 2 +19 +16 A+ B F +4 C A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 60 Virginia Tech W 77 - 76 76% -0  13 - 4 2 - 2 +7 +8 B C- B+ -1 C B C
 Sat, Jan 17 22 Virginia L 68 - 72 51% +1  13 - 5 2 - 3 +10 +9 B A B- +0 A- F B+
 Tue, Jan 20 68 @Wake Forest W 91 - 79 60% +8  14 - 5 3 - 3 +23 +17 A+ B B- +5 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 106 Florida St. W 83 - 80 88% +4  15 - 5 4 - 3 +4 +12 B C A+ -8 C- B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 18 @Louisville L 79 - 86 27%
 Tue, Feb 3 24 North Carolina St. W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 93 @Pittsburgh W 79 - 74 68%
 Tue, Feb 10 81 Notre Dame W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 77 @Syracuse W 81 - 78 63%
 Tue, Feb 17 18 Louisville L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 130 Boston College W 80 - 65 92%
 Wed, Feb 25 66 @California W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 @Stanford W 80 - 76 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 39 Miami (FL) W 82 - 78 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 106 @Florida St. W 88 - 81 73%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14 +10 A- B B- +4 B- B- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.8 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 5.9 1.8 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 8.6 3.9 0.3 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.9 6.9 0.5 16.0 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 9.2 1.5 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 8.3 3.2 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.5 0.3 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.5 11.7 18.8 22.7 20.5 12.4 5.1 1.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 14.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 3.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.1% 99.9% 10.1% 89.8% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 12.4% 99.6% 7.7% 91.9% 6.5 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 20.5% 98.2% 5.0% 93.2% 7.5 0.1 0.9 2.8 6.4 5.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.4 98.1%
11-7 22.7% 94.4% 3.5% 90.9% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 6.5 6.5 3.0 0.5 1.3 94.2%
10-8 18.8% 86.9% 1.9% 85.0% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 5.6 5.0 1.6 2.5 86.6%
9-9 11.7% 71.7% 1.1% 70.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.6 1.9 3.3 71.4%
8-10 5.5% 46.7% 0.7% 46.0% 10.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.0 2.9 46.3%
7-11 1.8% 18.7% 0.3% 18.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4 18.5%
6-12 0.4% 3.9% 3.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.7% 3.9% 83.8% 8.0 12.3 87.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 8.3 25.0 50.0 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.0 5.7 13.2 58.5 20.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 4.5 3.6 7.1 39.3 35.7 12.5 1.8