Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #68
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 #75
Pace 71.8 #98
Improvement -5.3 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #87 C+ B B- C+ C+
Defense #64 B- C A- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.20 #124 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #258 0.96 #11 +0.2 #166
Three Pointers 46% #76 1.00 #208 +2.4 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.5 #110
Freethrows 0.30 #197 76% #55 0.23 #149
Second Chance 32.2% #137 1.22 #23 0.39 #50
Turnovers 14.8% #80
Total Offense +3.9 #87

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.21 #253 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.69 #69 +2.1 #36
Three Pointers 49% #14 0.88 #33 -0.8 #215
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #86 +2.9 #87
Freethrows 0.31 #197 74% #282 0.23 #224
Second Chance 30.4% #171 1.02 #137 0.31 #154
Turnovers 20.9% #13
Total Defense +4.5 #64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #139 0.5% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #108 -6.0% #72
Possession Length 16.1 #63 18.2 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #88 0.14 #68
Improvement -2.3 #306 -2.9 #331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 6.9% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 6.6% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 54.9% 75.0% 44.4%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 25.9% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 1.6% 8.2%
First Four2.3% 4.0% 1.3%
First Round2.3% 4.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 10
Quad 25 - 57 - 16
Quad 33 - 19 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 220 American W 88 - 74 91% +9  1 - 0 +7 +6 D A+ B+ +0 C+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 299 Morehead St. W 81 - 65 95% +8  2 - 0 +5 -9 F B F +12 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84 - 85 OT 7% -2  2 - 1 +24 +9 D+ A+ B+ +15 A+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 16 317 Umass Lowell W 109 - 75 96% +15  3 - 1 +22 +22 B+ A+ A- -3 D B+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 15 Texas Tech L 83 - 84 18% -2  3 - 2 +17 +11 B A A+ +6 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 103 Memphis W 69 - 68 63% -5  4 - 2 +6 +5 D+ A+ C- +1 D B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 206 Campbell W 99 - 51 90% +26  5 - 2 +42 +19 A A+ A+ +22 A+ A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 259 Northeastern W 86 - 73 93% +7  6 - 2 +5 +3 A B+ F +2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 52 Oklahoma L 68 - 86 55% -4  6 - 3 -11 -6 F+ F+ C- -4 D D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 56 West Virginia W 75 - 66 44% +6  7 - 3 +19 +20 A+ B C +0 B F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 186 Queens W 111 - 73 89% +19  8 - 3 +33 +29 A+ A- C +3 C A- B
 Wed, Dec 17 261 Longwood W 71 - 68 93% +2  9 - 3 -5 -9 F F B+ +4 A C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 12 Vanderbilt L 67 - 98 23% -19  9 - 4 -15 -2 D+ C+ F+ -12 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 31 24 @North Carolina St. L 57 - 70 16% -7  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 -9 D F C- +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 60 Virginia Tech W 81 - 78 57% +4  10 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +7 C- A+ A- +2 C- B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 39 Miami (FL) L 77 - 81 44% +1  10 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +11 A+ C B -5 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 29 @North Carolina L 84 - 87 19% -8  10 - 7 1 - 3 +15 +16 A+ A- F+ -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Florida St. W 69 - 68 55% -3  11 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +3 D+ A- A+ +5 B+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 36 SMU L 79 - 91 40% -8  11 - 8 2 - 4 -1 +3 B- C- B+ -3 D C A
 Sat, Jan 24 3 @Duke L 69 - 90 6% -9  11 - 9 2 - 5 +5 +15 A C+ A+ -11 B- D D+
 Tue, Jan 27 93 @Pittsburgh L 76 - 80 OT 48% +3  11 - 10 2 - 6 +5 +4 C C D +1 A D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 24 North Carolina St. L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 18 Louisville L 77 - 83 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 113 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 76 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 84 Stanford W 78 - 73 66%
 Wed, Feb 18 33 Clemson L 69 - 72 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 60 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 78 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 130 @Boston College W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 77 Syracuse W 78 - 74 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 22 @Virginia L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Mar 7 66 California W 76 - 73 61%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8 +4 C+ B B- +4 B- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.1 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.3 4.0 3.4 0.2 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 2.8 6.9 1.5 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 8.0 4.3 0.2 13.5 11th
12th 0.1 5.9 8.0 0.9 0.0 14.9 12th
13th 1.7 9.5 2.5 0.1 13.8 13th
14th 0.2 5.5 5.1 0.2 11.0 14th
15th 0.0 1.5 6.0 0.9 8.4 15th
16th 0.2 2.8 2.1 0.1 5.2 16th
17th 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.3 3.6 17th
18th 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 18th
Total 0.4 2.3 7.2 15.7 22.4 21.9 16.9 9.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 64.9% 2.4% 62.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 64.0%
10-8 3.1% 34.6% 0.8% 33.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 2.0 34.0%
9-9 9.1% 14.8% 0.5% 14.3% 10.7 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 7.8 14.4%
8-10 16.9% 2.4% 0.2% 2.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 16.5 2.2%
7-11 21.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.8 0.3%
6-12 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 22.4
5-13 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 15.7
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 0.2% 3.4% 10.4 96.4 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%