Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.8 #84
Expected Predictive Rating +10.8 #57
Pace 69.2 #166
Improvement -1.5 #260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 C+ C+ B- B+ A-
Defense #70 B- C+ B D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #25 1.12 #223 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #355 0.74 #197 -4.5 #355
Three Pointers 46% #84 1.07 #109 +3.6 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #118 +2.3 #117
Freethrows 0.36 #21 73% #168 0.27 #33
Second Chance 34.9% #63 1.00 #235 0.35 #111
Turnovers 15.1% #96
Total Offense +2.9 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.13 #143 +1.0 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.73 #126 -2.3 #335
Three Pointers 35% #340 0.93 #70 +4.8 #21
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #69 +3.5 #70
Freethrows 0.32 #263 76% #339 0.25 #292
Second Chance 26.9% #58 1.10 #270 0.30 #116
Turnovers 19.3% #45
Total Defense +4.0 #70

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #8 -1.9% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #170 -5.1% #83
Possession Length 16.9 #126 17.6 #221
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #97 0.11 #25
Improvement -1.9 #281 +0.4 #167

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 28.2% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.4% 28.1% 11.0%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 96.5% 99.8% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 28.2% 51.0% 22.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.4% 3.4%
First Four6.3% 9.7% 5.4%
First Round10.4% 21.7% 7.6%
Second Round2.7% 6.5% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 6
Quad 24 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 414 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 149 Portland St. W 89 - 79 81% +6  1 - 0 +8 +7 B- B+ D- -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 161 Montana W 91 - 68 82% +11  2 - 0 +20 +11 B- C- A+ +7 A D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 157 Montana St. W 77 - 68 82% +4  3 - 0 +6 -2 C- C C- +8 C+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 314 Louisiana W 93 - 66 95% +12  4 - 0 +15 +15 B C- B+ -1 D B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 123 Seattle L 69 - 77 76% +2  4 - 1 -8 -1 D+ C A -7 C D B+
 Thu, Nov 27 76 Minnesota W 72 - 68 47% +1  5 - 1 +12 +10 D A+ A+ +2 D F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 26 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 21% -6  6 - 1 +16 +11 B C+ B +6 A+ D- C-
 Mon, Dec 1 204 Portland W 94 - 72 88% +14  7 - 1 +16 +20 A A+ A+ -3 D C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 125 UNLV L 74 - 75 77% +2  7 - 2 -2 -2 F A+ D- +0 C+ B B
 Sat, Dec 13 249 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 79% +8  8 - 2 +2 +12 A+ A+ F -10 C F F
 Wed, Dec 17 158 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 82% +12  9 - 2 +13 +8 A- B- C- +6 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 82 Colorado W 77 - 68 49% +3  10 - 2 +16 +5 D+ B B+ +11 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 217 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 89% +1  11 - 2 +2 +6 A+ F D+ -5 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 81 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 60% -5  11 - 3 0 - 1 -3 -22 F F A- +18 A+ B- A
 Fri, Jan 2 18 Louisville W 80 - 76 23% +3  12 - 3 1 - 1 +18 +20 A A+ A- -1 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 60 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 29% -5  13 - 3 2 - 1 +13 +14 A- B A+ -0 B A C
 Sat, Jan 10 22 @Virginia L 55 - 70 12% -6  13 - 4 2 - 2 +5 -4 C F F +7 B+ A C
 Wed, Jan 14 29 North Carolina W 95 - 90 31% -5  14 - 4 3 - 2 +17 +22 A+ F A- -5 C- D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Duke L 50 - 80 11% -15  14 - 5 3 - 3 -10 -7 D A- F -6 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 66 California L 66 - 78 55% -1  14 - 6 3 - 4 -7 -5 F D- A+ -1 B- C+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 39 @Miami (FL) L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Jan 31 106 @Florida St. L 79 - 80 49%
 Wed, Feb 4 33 Clemson L 67 - 71 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 113 Georgia Tech W 78 - 72 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 130 @Boston College W 70 - 68 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 68 @Wake Forest L 73 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 66 @California L 71 - 76 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 93 Pittsburgh W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 36 SMU L 76 - 80 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 81 @Notre Dame L 69 - 72 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 82 13%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +7 +3 C+ C+ B- +4 B- C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.7 2.8 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.3 5.0 6.1 0.7 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 3.2 8.6 2.5 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 9.0 5.2 0.4 15.6 11th
12th 0.1 4.5 7.2 0.9 0.0 12.6 12th
13th 0.9 6.6 2.1 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.0 2.8 3.8 0.2 6.8 14th
15th 0.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 4.5 15th
16th 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.7 16th
17th 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 17th
18th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.5 2.9 9.0 16.8 21.9 20.6 15.2 8.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.0% 89.5% 0.5% 89.0% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 89.4%
11-7 3.2% 69.0% 0.5% 68.5% 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 1.0 68.9%
10-8 8.7% 50.9% 0.2% 50.8% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 1.4 4.2 50.8%
9-9 15.2% 29.4% 0.1% 29.3% 10.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.4 0.0 10.7 29.3%
8-10 20.6% 9.0% 0.1% 8.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.0 18.8 8.9%
7-11 21.9% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 21.5 1.8%
6-12 16.8% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 16.7 0.2%
5-13 9.0% 9.0
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.4% 0.1% 14.3% 10.1 85.6 14.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%