Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#33
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#35
Pace73.3#77
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#56
First Shot+4.4#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#74
Layup/Dunks+10.8#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#306
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement-0.3#207

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#21
First Shot+8.2#11
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#260
Layups/Dunks+6.6#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#313
Freethrows+2.2#64
Improvement-0.2#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 5.3% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 18.0% 18.5% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.7% 68.6% 50.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.2% 67.0% 49.0%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 8.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 90.1% 82.4%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four8.6% 8.6% 9.3%
First Round63.5% 64.4% 46.0%
Second Round37.1% 37.8% 24.0%
Sweet Sixteen11.9% 12.1% 6.5%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.3% 2.2%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 95.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 24 - 18 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 291 Jacksonville W 86-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.8 +5.2 +0.8
  Thu, Nov 6 223 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 96%     2 - 0 +33.4 +21.5 +10.6
  Mon, Nov 10 346 Stetson W 102-61 99%     3 - 0 +26.1 +10.6 +10.9
  Sun, Nov 16 13 Florida L 68-82 33%     3 - 1 +3.9 -1.1 +6.2
  Thu, Nov 20 192 Elon W 99-72 94%     4 - 1 +22.1 +15.4 +5.5
  Sun, Nov 23 348 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     5 - 1 +40.9 +19.0 +21.5
  Thu, Nov 27 9 BYU L 62-72 28%     5 - 2 +9.3 -1.4 +10.6
  Fri, Nov 28 101 Georgetown W 78-65 79%     6 - 2 +17.9 +13.0 +5.9
  Tue, Dec 2 60 @Mississippi W 75-66 54%     7 - 2 +21.1 +11.9 +9.7
  Sat, Dec 6 202 Southern Miss W 88-64 95%     8 - 2 +18.2 +7.3 +9.7
  Sat, Dec 13 358 Louisiana Monroe W 104-79 99%     9 - 2 +7.7 +21.3 -13.9
  Tue, Dec 16 186 Florida International W 87-69 95%    
  Sun, Dec 21 344 North Florida W 96-68 99.5%   
  Tue, Dec 30 107 Pittsburgh W 79-67 88%    
  Wed, Jan 7 51 @Wake Forest L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 131 Georgia Tech W 81-67 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 55 @Notre Dame W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 36 @Clemson L 70-72 41%    
  Tue, Jan 20 105 Florida St. W 88-76 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 68 @Syracuse W 76-74 58%    
  Wed, Jan 28 93 Stanford W 84-73 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 82 California W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 150 @Boston College W 76-66 81%    
  Tue, Feb 10 22 North Carolina W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 29 @North Carolina St. L 77-81 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 64 Virginia Tech W 81-73 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 25 @Virginia L 74-79 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 105 @Florida St. W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 150 Boston College W 79-63 92%    
  Wed, Mar 4 39 @SMU L 78-80 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 Louisville L 80-83 41%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.6 3.7 1.0 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.1 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.8 5.4 0.8 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 2.6 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.2 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 1.7 0.2 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.4 8.8 12.8 15.5 16.6 14.6 11.0 6.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 90.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 67.0% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 33.1% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 11.2% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.1% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.4% 99.7% 11.1% 88.6% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
14-4 11.0% 98.5% 9.6% 88.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.7 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-5 14.6% 94.1% 6.6% 87.6% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.2 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.9 93.7%
12-6 16.6% 83.3% 4.2% 79.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.1 3.3 0.9 0.0 2.8 82.5%
11-7 15.5% 66.4% 2.0% 64.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.7 2.2 0.0 5.2 65.7%
10-8 12.8% 44.6% 1.0% 43.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.4 0.0 7.1 44.0%
9-9 8.8% 26.2% 0.4% 25.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.0 6.5 25.8%
8-10 5.4% 9.6% 0.4% 9.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.9 9.3%
7-11 2.8% 2.2% 0.4% 1.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.8%
6-12 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.2%
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 67.7% 4.6% 63.1% 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.5 7.4 9.1 10.3 11.1 11.5 7.4 0.2 32.3 66.2%