Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.1 #106
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #149
Pace 77.6 #18
Improvement -2.2 #288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 C B+ B C- B
Defense #130 C C+ B+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #179 1.21 #113 +1.1 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.69 #285 -3.7 #342
Three Pointers 50% #28 0.93 #292 +2.3 #107
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.4 #186
Freethrows 0.29 #238 72% #189 0.21 #217
Second Chance 33.6% #98 1.21 #25 0.41 #40
Turnovers 14.4% #64
Total Offense +2.9 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.17 #195 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.78 #223 -0.2 #198
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.03 #197 -2.4 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.4 #193
Freethrows 0.29 #142 72% #186 0.21 #139
Second Chance 31.3% #216 0.98 #88 0.31 #138
Turnovers 19.9% #28
Total Defense +1.2 #130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #42 -0.6% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #225 1.3% #207
Possession Length 14.4 #5 18.0 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #154 0.17 #185
Improvement +0.1 #175 -2.3 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 n/a
.500 or above 2.1% 4.0% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.3% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.0% 22.1% 43.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 22 - 74 - 18
Quad 31 - 25 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 350 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 96% +17  1 - 0 +17 +20 B B A+ -6 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 318 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 93% +20  2 - 0 +25 +11 D A+ D+ +10 A+ D+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 10 @Florida L 76 - 78 5% -1  2 - 1 +21 +4 D+ C+ A- +17 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 229 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 85% +19  3 - 1 +7 +7 B- D- A+ -1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 86% +14  4 - 1 +18 +4 C- C A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 92% +13  5 - 1 +19 -1 D+ B- D- +15 A- D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 16% -22  5 - 2 -21 -12 F C+ C- -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 28 Georgia L 73 - 107 23% -19  5 - 3 -22 -2 C C A -16 F+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 4 Houston L 67 - 82 6% -10  5 - 4 +6 +5 C A+ F+ +1 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 170 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 69% -5  5 - 5 -9 +9 B+ C- B- -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 86 @Dayton L 69 - 97 30% -13  5 - 6 -18 -4 D+ C- D- -12 C- B- C-
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +32  6 - 6 +20 +8 D C B +9 B+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 283 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 90% +18  7 - 6 +14 +17 C A A- -1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 29 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 11% -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +5 +0 D- A- C+ +4 A B- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Duke L 87 - 91 7% -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +16 +25 A+ A+ B- -8 D+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 21% -24  7 - 9 0 - 3 -31 -5 F+ A- A -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 77 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 27% -1  7 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +15 B+ A+ C- -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 68 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 45% +3  7 - 11 0 - 5 +4 +2 D+ A D- +2 B D+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 39 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 14% +0  8 - 11 1 - 5 +18 +1 B F C+ +17 A+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 36 @SMU L 80 - 83 12% -4  8 - 12 1 - 6 +14 +15 B- B+ A+ -1 B- A- F+
 Wed, Jan 28 66 California L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 84 Stanford W 80 - 79 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 81 @Notre Dame L 73 - 79 29%
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Virginia L 73 - 83 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 60 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 22%
 Tue, Feb 17 130 Boston College W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 33 @Clemson L 67 - 80 11%
 Tue, Feb 24 39 Miami (FL) L 78 - 84 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 113 @Georgia Tech L 80 - 82 42%
 Wed, Mar 4 93 @Pittsburgh L 75 - 80 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 SMU L 81 - 88 27%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +4 +3 C B+ B +1 C C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.0 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 3.5 3.4 0.2 7.2 12th
13th 1.5 6.8 1.4 0.0 9.6 13th
14th 0.3 6.4 4.8 0.2 11.6 14th
15th 0.1 3.5 9.1 1.2 0.0 13.9 15th
16th 1.1 8.6 4.2 0.1 14.0 16th
17th 0.3 5.8 7.9 0.8 14.8 17th
18th 1.3 6.0 8.6 2.1 0.0 18.0 18th
Total 1.3 6.3 15.6 22.3 22.1 16.9 9.7 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.6%
9-9 1.3% 1.3
8-10 4.1% 4.1
7-11 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 16.9% 16.9
5-13 22.1% 22.1
4-14 22.3% 22.3
3-15 15.6% 15.6
2-16 6.3% 6.3
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%