Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #81
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #82
Pace 63.8 #311
Improvement -3.8 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #92 B- C C+ C D+
Defense #73 B B+ D+ C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.29 #57 -0.4 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.82 #96 +1.7 #89
Three Pointers 43% #144 1.10 #70 +2.8 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #66 +4.0 #67
Freethrows 0.31 #163 71% #236 0.22 #182
Second Chance 34.4% #74 0.95 #310 0.33 #157
Turnovers 15.7% #129
Total Offense +3.5 #92

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.11 #109 +5.9 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #124 0.75 #157 -0.4 #214
Three Pointers 48% #24 0.92 #63 -1.4 #247
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #58 +4.1 #58
Freethrows 0.27 #83 74% #291 0.20 #116
Second Chance 23.0% #7 1.08 #243 0.25 #35
Turnovers 14.4% #303
Total Defense +3.7 #73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #275 -1.6% #59
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.4% #47 -6.5% #68
Possession Length 17.7 #208 18.2 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #196 0.15 #97
Improvement -0.4 #203 -3.4 #340

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.7
.500 or above 43.8% 64.2% 31.7%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 13.6% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 3.1% 13.3%
First Four1.0% 2.1% 0.3%
First Round0.8% 1.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 11
Quad 23 - 35 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 LIU Brooklyn W 89 - 67 90% +15  1 - 0 +15 +12 B+ A+ F +3 A- B+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 289 Detroit Mercy W 102 - 70 94% +17  2 - 0 +22 +15 B+ A+ A +4 D+ A- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 312 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 58 95% +7  3 - 0 +8 +15 C A- C+ -4 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 35 @Ohio St. L 63 - 64 18% +3  3 - 1 +16 -1 B F D- +17 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 302 Bellarmine W 86 - 79 95% +9  4 - 1 -4 +2 B+ B+ F -7 D A B-
 Mon, Nov 24 17 Kansas L 61 - 71 16% -6  4 - 2 +8 +2 C+ F+ A+ +5 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 120 Rutgers W 68 - 63 66% +8  5 - 2 +8 +5 A- B+ F +4 B D A+
 Wed, Nov 26 4 Houston L 56 - 66 10% -12  5 - 3 +11 +4 D C A+ +5 A+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 54 Missouri W 76 - 71 51% -1  6 - 3 +12 +6 A- D- D+ +6 A A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 5 44 @TCU W 87 - 85 OT 24% -2  7 - 3 +17 +18 A+ F+ B- -1 D+ B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 189 Idaho W 80 - 65 87% +5  8 - 3 +10 +13 A B- C+ -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 270 Evansville W 82 - 58 93% +11  9 - 3 +15 +12 A- D C- +4 C- A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 218 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 72 89% -4  9 - 4 -9 -7 D- F+ D -2 C+ A D-
 Tue, Dec 30 84 @Stanford W 47 - 40 40% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +17 -11 F C C- +29 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 66 @California L 71 - 72 34% +2  10 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +12 B D A+ -2 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Clemson L 61 - 76 35% -6  10 - 6 1 - 2 -4 +1 A C F -7 A- D F
 Tue, Jan 13 39 Miami (FL) L 69 - 81 40% -5  10 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +3 B B F -6 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 60 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 89 30% -11  10 - 8 1 - 4 -1 +8 C+ B+ C -9 C F B
 Wed, Jan 21 29 @North Carolina L 69 - 91 16% -14  10 - 9 1 - 5 -4 +4 C- C+ A+ -8 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 130 Boston College W 68 - 64 79% -4  11 - 9 2 - 5 +3 +5 C- A- B+ -2 B+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 27 22 Virginia L 97 - 100 2OT 26% +9  11 - 10 2 - 6 +11 +19 A+ D B+ -8 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 77 @Syracuse L 70 - 73 37%
 Wed, Feb 4 18 @Louisville L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Feb 7 106 Florida St. W 79 - 73 71%
 Tue, Feb 10 36 @SMU L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 14 113 Georgia Tech W 76 - 69 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 93 @Pittsburgh L 68 - 70 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 3 Duke L 64 - 77 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 North Carolina St. L 71 - 77 30%
 Wed, Mar 4 84 Stanford W 72 - 69 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 130 @Boston College W 67 - 65 59%
Totals 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7 +3 B- C C+ +4 B B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.3 2.5 1.9 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 5.1 0.9 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 7.9 3.8 0.1 12.8 11th
12th 0.1 5.9 8.3 1.0 15.3 12th
13th 2.0 10.3 3.0 0.0 15.4 13th
14th 0.2 6.3 6.0 0.3 12.8 14th
15th 0.0 1.7 7.4 1.3 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.1 3.9 3.3 0.1 7.5 16th
17th 0.0 1.1 3.6 0.6 5.3 17th
18th 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.0 3.3 18th
Total 0.5 3.0 10.5 19.7 24.8 22.2 12.9 5.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 69.8% 69.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 69.8%
10-8 1.3% 33.5% 0.4% 33.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 33.2%
9-9 5.0% 10.2% 0.1% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.5 10.1%
8-10 12.9% 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.7 1.7%
7-11 22.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 22.1 0.2%
6-12 24.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 24.8
5-13 19.7% 19.7
4-14 10.5% 10.5
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 10.6 98.6 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%