California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#82
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#32
Pace68.7#209
Improvement-2.3#317

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#76
First Shot+5.7#43
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#267
Layup/Dunks-0.4#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#36
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-1.7#305

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#82
First Shot+3.9#54
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#259
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows+3.6#14
Improvement-0.6#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 17.2% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.8% 16.9% 8.2%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 92.7% 92.9% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 38.4% 38.6% 25.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 4.3% 9.9%
First Four6.3% 6.4% 2.4%
First Round13.4% 13.4% 6.5%
Second Round4.9% 4.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 23 - 46 - 11
Quad 36 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 95%     1 - 0 +15.3 +5.2 +8.9
  Thu, Nov 6 143 Wright St. W 77-67 81%     2 - 0 +8.0 +3.9 +4.2
  Mon, Nov 10 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 93%     3 - 0 +19.2 +7.2 +9.4
  Thu, Nov 13 67 @Kansas St. L 96-99 35%     3 - 1 +8.3 +17.2 -8.6
  Tue, Nov 18 260 Presbyterian W 67-57 92%     4 - 1 +1.5 +6.0 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 21 280 Sacramento St. W 91-67 93%     5 - 1 +14.7 +8.3 +4.8
  Tue, Nov 25 30 UCLA W 80-72 26%     6 - 1 +21.9 +12.2 +9.6
  Tue, Dec 2 120 Utah W 79-72 75%     7 - 1 +7.1 +6.3 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 6 129 Pacific W 67-61 78%     8 - 1 +5.1 +4.3 +1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 274 Northwestern St. W 79-70 93%     9 - 1 +0.1 +3.3 -2.8
  Fri, Dec 19 359 Morgan St. W 90-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 138 Columbia W 79-70 79%    
  Tue, Dec 30 10 Louisville L 75-84 21%    
  Fri, Jan 2 55 Notre Dame W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 25 @Virginia L 70-81 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 64 @Virginia Tech L 74-78 35%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 67-79 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 North Carolina L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 93 @Stanford L 76-77 46%    
  Wed, Jan 28 105 @Florida St. W 81-80 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 33 @Miami (FL) L 71-80 21%    
  Wed, Feb 4 131 Georgia Tech W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 36 Clemson L 69-71 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 68 @Syracuse L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 150 @Boston College W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 93 Stanford W 79-74 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 39 SMU L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 107 Pittsburgh W 75-69 72%    
  Wed, Mar 4 131 @Georgia Tech W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 @Wake Forest L 73-79 28%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.9 3.1 0.2 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.1 2.0 5.6 1.9 0.1 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 9.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 8.0 14th
15th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.6 0.2 5.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.8 9.2 12.6 14.8 14.6 13.4 10.5 7.0 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 31.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 3.8% 96.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 96.6% 7.6% 89.1% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.4%
13-5 2.2% 89.8% 1.9% 87.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 89.6%
12-6 4.1% 77.4% 2.0% 75.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.9 77.0%
11-7 7.0% 57.6% 0.8% 56.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 57.3%
10-8 10.5% 36.1% 0.5% 35.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 0.0 6.7 35.8%
9-9 13.4% 16.0% 0.3% 15.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.1 11.3 15.7%
8-10 14.6% 4.6% 0.1% 4.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.9 4.5%
7-11 14.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.7 0.7%
6-12 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 12.6 0.1%
5-13 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 9.2
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 0.4% 16.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.8 5.5 0.2 82.9 16.8%