Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 Hawaii 38.8%   13   13 - 4 7 - 2 +5.4      -1.2 201 +6.6 33 71.9 95 +3.6 111 +4.8 2
114 UC San Diego 19.2%   13 - 5 5 - 4 +3.5      +1.6 126 +1.9 111 67.9 213 +4.5 96 -1.6 4
119 UC Irvine 23.6%   12 - 7 7 - 2 +2.8      -3.2 265 +6.0 43 70.7 132 +2.3 128 +6.3 1
146 UC Santa Barbara 10.8%   11 - 7 6 - 3 +0.8      +4.2 79 -3.3 280 63.1 322 -0.3 166 -0.2 3
182 UC Davis 3.8%   10 - 8 5 - 4 -1.5      -0.7 183 -0.9 201 71.1 120 +0.4 155 -1.6 5
216 Cal St. Fullerton 1.6%   8 - 12 5 - 5 -3.3      -2.4 232 -0.9 203 80.2 8 -2.7 213 -2.2 6
217 Cal St. Northridge 1.5%   9 - 10 4 - 5 -3.3      -1.6 211 -1.8 233 80.6 6 -1.6 194 -2.6 7
251 Long Beach St. 0.6%   6 - 13 4 - 5 -5.0      -2.5 238 -2.4 249 68.0 207 -5.8 250 -4.1 8
288 Cal Poly 0.1%   5 - 14 3 - 6 -7.4      -3.4 267 -4.0 293 84.6 1 -6.2 265 -5.9 9
291 UC Riverside 0.1%   5 - 14 2 - 7 -7.5      -4.4 289 -3.1 274 68.0 210 -6.4 268 -8.1 11
301 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 13 2 - 7 -8.2      -5.0 305 -3.3 279 73.1 71 -6.3 267 -7.6 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 119 UC Irvine 61 114 UC San Diego 59   
Sat, Jan 24 251 Long Beach St. 71 146 UC Santa Barbara 74   
Sat, Jan 24 217 Cal St. Northridge 68 99 Hawaii 89   
Sat, Jan 24 288 Cal Poly 78 216 Cal St. Fullerton 93   
Sat, Jan 24 182 UC Davis 74 291 UC Riverside 66   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 99 Hawaii 67 119 UC Irvine 68 52%   
Thu, Jan 29 114 UC San Diego 77 146 UC Santa Barbara 71 71%   
Thu, Jan 29 217 Cal St. Northridge 82 182 UC Davis 81 55%   
Thu, Jan 29 301 Cal St. Bakersfield 85 288 Cal Poly 83 58%   
Thu, Jan 29 251 Long Beach St. 72 291 UC Riverside 73 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 216 Cal St. Fullerton 76 146 UC Santa Barbara 83 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 217 Cal St. Northridge 77 114 UC San Diego 81 64%   
Sat, Jan 31 288 Cal Poly 79 291 UC Riverside 82 61%   
Sat, Jan 31 99 Hawaii 75 251 Long Beach St. 68 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 301 Cal St. Bakersfield 75 182 UC Davis 79 64%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.5 63.9 25.8 7.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 3.3 7.7 20.0 33.9 22.0 10.1 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 1.9 43.6 36.2 13.2 4.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.6 6.8 16.0 26.5 25.5 14.2 7.0 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 5.1 1.1 4.3 12.1 21.5 23.7 17.7 11.3 5.7 1.9 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 5.9 0.2 1.4 5.6 13.0 20.4 23.8 19.9 10.5 3.7 1.1 0.2
Cal St. Northridge 6.2 0.2 1.4 5.0 11.4 17.5 21.4 19.9 13.1 6.6 2.8 0.8
Long Beach St. 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 9.8 15.7 20.6 24.1 14.5 7.1 2.2
Cal Poly 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.9 9.8 19.0 27.2 21.9 14.6
UC Riverside 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.5 12.5 21.4 29.9 25.6
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.7 11.5 20.4 26.5 32.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.4 15.7 23.0 25.2 17.4 6.0
UC San Diego 13 - 7 21 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.1 14.9 22.1 24.5 18.2 8.3 1.8
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 6.7 13.6 20.3 23.9 19.0 10.3 2.8
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.1 11.0 17.9 22.3 20.0 13.1 6.5 1.9 0.2
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 0.1 0.9 3.1 8.8 15.8 20.3 21.8 15.8 9.0 3.5 0.8 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.3 2.0 7.2 15.5 22.8 22.8 16.7 8.8 3.1 0.8 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 14 - 16 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.3 17.0 20.6 19.7 14.7 7.6 2.9 0.8 0.1
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 10 - 20 1.0 4.6 11.8 18.8 22.5 19.4 12.8 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1
Cal Poly 6 - 14 8 - 22 1.9 8.7 17.8 23.8 22.4 14.5 7.5 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 6 - 14 9 - 21 1.2 6.3 15.5 22.6 23.1 17.1 9.2 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 6 - 14 10 - 20 1.6 8.3 17.2 23.0 21.8 15.3 8.5 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 63.9% 46.2 15.2 2.2 0.2 0.0
UC San Diego 7.7% 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 43.6% 27.4 13.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 6.8% 2.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 13   1.7 13.8 18.4 4.6 0.2 61.2 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 7.1 9.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 80.8 0.0%
UC Irvine 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 0.2 4.6 11.7 6.2 0.8 0.0 76.4 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 3.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 89.2 0.0%
UC Davis 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 96.2 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 98.4 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 38.8% 0.0% 38.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 19.2% 0.0% 19.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 23.6% 0.0% 23.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%