Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
89 UC San Diego 38.0%   13   8 - 1 1 - 0 24 - 6 16 - 4 +5.8      +4.3 73 +1.5 122 70.5 163 +11.7 53 +12.0 1
111 Hawaii 22.6%   8 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +3.5      -2.3 231 +5.7 37 72.3 107 +3.6 117 +8.2 2
122 UC Irvine 20.7%   5 - 4 2 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +2.9      -4.0 276 +7.0 25 71.3 134 +0.6 162 +7.6 3
151 UC Santa Barbara 10.4%   6 - 3 2 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +0.6      +3.0 104 -2.4 253 64.3 313 +2.5 135 +4.8 4
201 UC Davis 3.3%   4 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 10 -2.6      -2.9 244 +0.3 155 69.1 196 +1.8 143 -8.7 8
222 Cal St. Northridge 2.1%   5 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.6      -0.9 190 -2.7 260 78.9 15 -1.3 187 -2.9 6
249 Cal Poly 1.0%   3 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.1      -2.4 233 -2.7 259 86.2 2 -2.9 211 -5.8 7
268 UC Riverside 0.9%   4 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.7      -2.0 223 -3.8 299 67.5 238 -3.7 231 +1.9 5
272 Cal St. Fullerton 0.5%   3 - 7 0 - 2 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.8      -3.0 248 -2.8 269 84.7 3 -6.1 255 -19.8 11
279 Long Beach St. 0.5%   1 - 9 0 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6.2      -2.1 226 -4.2 315 66.1 268 -11.8 324 -12.0 9
312 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   3 - 8 0 - 2 9 - 21 5 - 15 -8.7      -4.9 300 -3.9 305 72.6 99 -9.5 304 -14.1 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 222 Cal St. Northridge 89 184 Fresno St. 87   
Thu, Dec 11 312 Cal St. Bakersfield 69 144 North Dakota St. 80   
Sat, Dec 13 151 UC Santa Barbara 53 84 Utah Valley 68   
Sat, Dec 13 111 Hawaii 66 218 UTEP 61   
Sat, Dec 13 207 Tulane 67 89 UC San Diego 93   
Sat, Dec 13 222 Cal St. Northridge 88 282 Delaware 66   
Sat, Dec 13 66 Oregon 104 201 UC Davis 62   
Sat, Dec 13 312 Cal St. Bakersfield 62 293 Pepperdine 70   
Sat, Dec 13 272 Cal St. Fullerton 105 314 Denver 86   
Sat, Dec 13 9 BYU 100 268 UC Riverside 53   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 134 Loyola Marymount 71 89 UC San Diego 73 54%   
Tue, Dec 16 249 Cal Poly 77 174 Montana St. 78 54%   
Wed, Dec 17 119 Seattle 71 201 UC Davis 68 61%   
Wed, Dec 17 277 Green Bay 70 151 UC Santa Barbara 74 64%   
Thu, Dec 18 279 Long Beach St. 71 293 Pepperdine 67 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.9 52.4 23.8 13.3 6.4 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.6 28.6 28.0 20.4 12.3 5.7 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 2.8 24.2 26.2 22.1 14.1 7.2 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.8 10.7 16.8 20.0 21.1 13.7 8.0 4.9 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2
UC Davis 5.9 1.9 4.8 9.2 14.0 17.4 15.3 12.3 9.7 7.3 5.2 2.8
Cal St. Northridge 6.2 1.1 3.2 6.7 12.0 16.7 16.8 14.2 11.7 8.9 6.0 2.7
Cal Poly 7.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.0 11.4 14.3 16.1 15.2 13.5 10.4 6.3
UC Riverside 7.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 7.3 12.0 15.3 15.8 15.0 13.1 9.9 6.0
Cal St. Fullerton 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 7.1 10.1 13.7 15.1 17.1 16.9 13.7
Long Beach St. 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 7.6 10.8 13.5 14.8 16.5 16.7 14.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.3 7.9 11.1 15.6 22.1 33.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.9 8.0 11.9 14.9 17.2 16.0 13.1 7.3 2.0
Hawaii 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.5 12.6 15.3 16.0 14.2 10.5 5.9 2.2 0.5
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.7 13.7 15.4 15.0 12.6 9.0 4.7 1.8 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.8 9.6 12.7 13.8 14.4 12.8 9.6 6.8 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.4 9.2 11.7 13.2 13.3 12.5 9.8 7.3 4.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.9 7.8 11.2 13.5 14.5 13.9 11.1 8.6 5.6 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.4 8.8 12.0 14.3 15.1 13.2 10.6 7.4 5.0 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.8 8.5 11.8 14.4 15.0 13.7 11.0 8.1 5.0 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.8 9.2 13.1 14.8 14.8 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.7 8.9 12.9 14.3 15.0 12.8 10.6 7.3 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 5 - 15 0.9 3.4 8.0 12.4 15.6 16.5 14.6 11.4 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 52.4% 40.1 10.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 28.6% 18.8 8.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 24.2% 15.7 6.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 10.7% 6.2 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 38.0% 37.9% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.1 19.0 9.9 2.0 0.1 62.0 0.2%
Hawaii 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.6 9.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 77.4 0.0%
UC Irvine 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.7 8.6 5.1 1.4 0.2 79.3 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 3.3 1.2 0.2 89.6 0.0%
UC Davis 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 96.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 97.9 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 99.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 99.1 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 38.0% 0.1% 38.0% 6.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 22.6% 0.0% 22.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 20.7% 0.1% 20.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.5 0.1
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0