Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#111
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#117
Pace72.3#107
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#231
First Shot-3.0#261
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#303
Freethrows+2.4#59
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#37
First Shot+4.7#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#120
Layups/Dunks-2.1#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#12
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement-1.1#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 24.5% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.4% 92.5%
Conference Champion 28.6% 33.5% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.6% 24.4% 17.8%
Second Round2.6% 2.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 416 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 66 @Oregon L 59-60 23%     0 - 1 +10.3 -13.4 +23.8
  Sun, Nov 9 303 East Texas A&M W 100-74 90%     1 - 1 +15.1 +14.5 -1.9
  Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-56 99%     2 - 1 +6.3 +9.4 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 14 321 Manhattan W 86-56 92%     3 - 1 +17.5 +1.0 +15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 262 Utah Tech W 68-62 87%     4 - 1 -2.5 -8.5 +5.9
  Thu, Nov 20 61 Arizona St. L 76-83 40%     4 - 2 -0.9 -0.4 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 28 342 North Dakota W 92-55 94%     5 - 2 +22.5 +5.0 +13.9
  Thu, Dec 4 201 UC Davis W 75-69 80%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +0.4 -0.4 +0.7
  Sat, Dec 6 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 69-59 87%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +1.2 -10.8 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 13 218 UTEP W 66-61 82%     8 - 2 -1.4 -1.6 +0.7
  Thu, Jan 1 268 @UC Riverside W 74-68 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 89 @UC San Diego L 71-76 30%    
  Sun, Jan 11 122 UC Irvine W 69-65 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 249 @Cal Poly W 82-76 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 151 @UC Santa Barbara L 71-72 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-65 92%    
  Sun, Jan 25 222 Cal St. Northridge W 82-72 82%    
  Thu, Jan 29 122 @UC Irvine L 66-68 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 279 @Long Beach St. W 74-67 73%    
  Sun, Feb 8 89 UC San Diego W 74-73 52%    
  Thu, Feb 12 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 222 @Cal St. Northridge W 79-75 64%    
  Fri, Feb 20 249 Cal Poly W 85-73 85%    
  Sun, Feb 22 151 UC Santa Barbara W 74-68 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 201 @UC Davis W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 272 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81-75 71%    
  Fri, Mar 6 268 UC Riverside W 77-65 86%    
  Sun, Mar 8 279 Long Beach St. W 77-64 87%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.1 8.3 5.7 2.2 0.5 28.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.8 9.2 6.7 2.2 0.3 28.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.5 6.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 20.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.5 12.6 15.3 16.0 14.2 10.5 5.9 2.2 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
18-2 95.6% 5.7    5.0 0.7
17-3 79.1% 8.3    6.0 2.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 49.7% 7.1    3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 23.4% 3.7    1.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.6% 28.6 18.8 8.0 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 55.7% 53.7% 2.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.3%
19-1 2.2% 50.8% 50.8% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1
18-2 5.9% 45.2% 45.2% 12.2 0.2 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.2
17-3 10.5% 40.3% 40.3% 12.5 0.1 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.2
16-4 14.2% 31.4% 31.4% 12.9 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 9.8
15-5 16.0% 24.9% 24.9% 13.1 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.1 12.0
14-6 15.3% 17.9% 17.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
13-7 12.6% 13.0% 13.0% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 11.0
12-8 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.6
11-9 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.9
10-10 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
9-11 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.6 9.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.5 1.3 1.3 5.0 11.3 13.8 58.8 7.5 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 4.5% 10.5 2.3 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 4.0% 11.0 4.0