Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #99
Expected Predictive Rating +3.6 #111
Pace 71.9 #95
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #201 C C+ D B- B
Defense #33 A- B C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #40 1.22 #111 +5.0 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #302 0.72 #237 -2.5 #304
Three Pointers 41% #188 0.90 #324 -2.6 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #180 -0.2 #180
Freethrows 0.34 #81 72% #204 0.24 #99
Second Chance 31.6% #154 1.10 #101 0.35 #115
Turnovers 18.6% #308
Total Offense -1.2 #201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 0.99 #21 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #142 0.71 #104 +0.1 #178
Three Pointers 33% #354 0.85 #18 +6.9 #4
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #21 +6.7 #21
Freethrows 0.30 #182 67% #12 0.20 #111
Second Chance 27.3% #72 0.95 #57 0.26 #44
Turnovers 16.2% #198
Total Defense +6.6 #33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #37 0.7% #233
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.7% #219 -13.7% #10
Possession Length 16.8 #124 17.1 #145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #222 0.16 #166
Improvement +2.5 #61 -2.9 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.8% 43.6% 34.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 63.9% 84.1% 45.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round38.8% 43.6% 34.4%
Second Round4.6% 5.5% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 7
Quad 417 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 72 @Oregon L 59 - 60 30% -3  0 - 1 +10 -13 F C F +23 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 311 East Texas A&M W 100 - 74 94% +17  1 - 1 +14 +14 A A+ C- -3 C- B- C
 Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88 - 56 99% +18  2 - 1 +5 +10 B- B- C -4 B- B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 327 Manhattan W 86 - 56 95% +15  3 - 1 +17 +2 D- B- B +14 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 223 Utah Tech W 68 - 62 87% +6  4 - 1 -1 -9 D- A+ F +8 A- A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 80 Arizona St. L 76 - 83 54% +2  4 - 2 -3 -2 C+ C+ F+ +0 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 28 290 North Dakota W 92 - 55 92% +14  5 - 2 +27 +3 B D+ D- +20 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 182 UC Davis W 75 - 69 82% +6  6 - 2 1 - 0 +1 -2 B+ C D- +3 A B+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 69 - 59 86% +9  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 -9 D- D+ D +12 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 256 UTEP W 66 - 61 89% -2  8 - 2 -3 -4 D- D- A+ +1 A- F D
 Thu, Jan 1 291 @UC Riverside W 88 - 45 82% +21  9 - 2 3 - 0 +39 +23 A+ A+ F+ +20 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 3 114 @UC San Diego L 73 - 83 46% -7  9 - 3 3 - 1 -4 +6 C B C -10 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 10 119 UC Irvine W 67 - 66 70% +2  10 - 3 4 - 1 +1 -2 B- D D- +3 A- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 288 @Cal Poly W 86 - 66 82% +8  11 - 3 5 - 1 +16 +2 B- C- F+ +12 B- C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 62 - 77 56% -12  11 - 4 5 - 2 -11 -5 D- C- F -8 D D B-
 Thu, Jan 22 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 98 - 71 93% +18  12 - 4 6 - 2 +16 +11 D- A+ C +2 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 217 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 68 86% +9  13 - 4 7 - 2 +15 +4 A- F+ F +8 B A C
 Thu, Jan 29 119 @UC Irvine L 68 - 69 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 251 @Long Beach St. W 75 - 68 76%
 Sun, Feb 8 114 UC San Diego W 74 - 69 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 14 217 @Cal St. Northridge W 81 - 75 70%
 Fri, Feb 20 288 Cal Poly W 88 - 72 93%
 Sun, Feb 22 146 UC Santa Barbara W 76 - 68 75%
 Thu, Feb 26 182 @UC Davis W 75 - 71 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 74 70%
 Fri, Mar 6 291 UC Riverside W 79 - 63 93%
 Sun, Mar 8 251 Long Beach St. W 78 - 65 89%
Totals 21 - 7 15 - 5 +5 -1 C C+ D +7 A- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.2 14.2 22.1 17.1 6.0 63.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.7 9.6 8.7 3.1 0.3 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.8 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.4 15.7 23.0 25.2 17.4 6.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 6.0    6.0
17-3 98.4% 17.1    15.9 1.2
16-4 87.7% 22.1    16.6 5.4 0.1
15-5 61.5% 14.2    6.9 6.4 0.9
14-6 27.0% 4.2    0.9 2.1 1.2 0.1
13-7 4.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 63.9% 63.9 46.2 15.2 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 6.0% 54.3% 54.3% 11.6 1.3 1.9 0.1 2.7
17-3 17.4% 46.7% 46.7% 12.3 0.4 4.9 2.7 0.2 9.3
16-4 25.2% 43.9% 43.9% 12.7 0.1 4.3 6.0 0.7 0.0 14.1
15-5 23.0% 38.5% 38.5% 12.9 0.0 2.0 5.4 1.4 0.0 14.2
14-6 15.7% 31.2% 31.2% 13.1 0.6 3.0 1.2 0.1 10.8
13-7 8.4% 23.7% 23.7% 13.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 6.4
12-8 3.3% 17.3% 17.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.7
11-9 0.9% 6.0% 6.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 12.7 61.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 11.6 39.1 57.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%