UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #291
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #268
Pace 68.0 #210
Improvement -0.8 #221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #289 C D D+ C C+
Defense #274 D+ C+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #74 1.12 #227 +1.4 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #175 0.75 #193 -0.1 #179
Three Pointers 37% #266 1.01 #200 -2.2 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #204 -0.9 #203
Freethrows 0.30 #196 74% #127 0.22 #171
Second Chance 24.6% #328 0.96 #290 0.24 #336
Turnovers 18.2% #289
Total Offense -4.4 #289

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.22 #268 -4.5 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #118 0.90 #349 -2.1 #330
Three Pointers 34% #342 1.04 #221 +3.1 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #287 -3.5 #288
Freethrows 0.32 #262 69% #39 0.22 #202
Second Chance 30.9% #195 0.97 #78 0.30 #117
Turnovers 14.4% #302
Total Defense -3.1 #274

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #149 0.4% #200
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #213 6.4% #302
Possession Length 18.1 #255 16.6 #57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.20 #262
Improvement -2.0 #286 +1.1 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 2.2% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.2% 30.5% 54.8%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 16
Quad 47 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 290 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 38% +5  1 - 0 -0 -3 C F F +3 F+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 43 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 3% -5  1 - 1 +1 +8 A+ D- D+ -8 D+ B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 290 North Dakota L 74 - 76 61% -0  1 - 2 -12 -10 C F F -2 D- A D+
 Tue, Nov 18 139 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 14% -15  1 - 3 -19 -17 D F F -0 C+ B C-
 Fri, Nov 21 212 @San Diego W 85 - 71 24% +10  2 - 3 +14 +14 A+ C+ A- -0 B+ C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 285 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 61% -1  3 - 3 -1 +8 A D- C- -9 B- C- F
 Sat, Nov 29 223 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 26% -4  3 - 4 -9 +3 B- C- D -12 D- D+ F
 Thu, Dec 4 119 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 11% -11  3 - 5 0 - 1 -7 -4 F D- B -4 D- A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 288 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 38% +7  4 - 5 1 - 1 -0 +11 B- C- A+ -11 F A D
 Sat, Dec 13 14 @BYU L 53 - 100 1% -14  4 - 6 -25 -14 D+ D- F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 127 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 13% -7  4 - 7 -9 +8 B- D- C -17 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 37 @UCLA L 65 - 97 2% -14  4 - 8 -16 -7 C+ F F -5 B- F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 99 Hawaii L 45 - 88 18% -21  4 - 9 1 - 2 -41 -18 F D- D+ -27 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 41% -0  4 - 10 1 - 3 -6 -9 C+ F F +2 B+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 114 UC San Diego L 66 - 69 22% +1  4 - 11 1 - 4 -3 -1 D B F -2 C- C+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 251 @Long Beach St. L 73 - 88 30% -10  4 - 12 1 - 5 -17 +1 F C+ A+ -19 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 72 45% +9  5 - 12 2 - 5 +3 -2 B+ F D- +4 A+ B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 119 UC Irvine L 66 - 80 24% -10  5 - 13 2 - 6 -14 -3 D- B D -11 C- F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 182 @UC Davis L 66 - 74 20% -10  5 - 14 2 - 7 -7 -5 F+ B- C- -2 D B+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 251 Long Beach St. W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Jan 31 288 Cal Poly W 82 - 79 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 75 - 82 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 146 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 114 @UC San Diego L 65 - 79 10%
 Thu, Feb 19 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 UC Davis L 73 - 76 39%
 Thu, Feb 26 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 68 - 79 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 79 46%
 Fri, Mar 6 99 @Hawaii L 63 - 79 7%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7 -4 C D D+ -3 D+ C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 6.9 3.6 0.3 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 10.4 7.5 0.8 21.4 9th
10th 0.4 4.9 13.3 9.9 1.5 0.0 29.9 10th
11th 1.2 6.0 10.6 6.7 1.1 0.0 25.6 11th
Total 1.2 6.3 15.5 22.6 23.1 17.1 9.2 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-11 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-13 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.1
6-14 23.1% 23.1
5-15 22.6% 22.6
4-16 15.5% 15.5
3-17 6.3% 6.3
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%