Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.5 332
Results Rating -10.5 326
Consistency 0.12 32
Pace 73.9 41
Improvement -2.2 260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 309 D- C- D B+ F+
Defense D- 329 D F+ C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 D+ 54% 276 -2.4 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 5 D+ 35% 292 +4.0 27
Three Pointers 29% 356 F+ 29% 345 -8.1 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 350 D- -4.7 329
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 349
Second Chance C 30.5% 175 D+ 0.96 280 C- 0.29 212
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 305
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 289
Turnovers D 18.9% 314
Freethrows B+ 0.36 30 C+ 74% 131 B+ 0.26 32
Total Offense D -5.5 309

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 40% 305 C- 11.7% 224
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 100 D+ 6.7% 294
Three Pointers C- 81% 249 D 1.4% 306
Total D- 46% 339 D 7.0% 323


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 146 C- 59% 208 +1.1 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 D- 43% 340 +0.5 227
Three Pointers 41% 171 D 37% 309 +1.7 276
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 217 D +3.0 300
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 290
Second Chance F 37.0% 357 C- 1.06 242 F+ 0.39 344
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 155
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 162
Turnovers C+ 17.1% 149
Freethrows D- 0.36 332 C 72% 197 D- 0.26 327
Total Defense D- -6.0 329

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 189 B- 13.8% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 254 B+ 8.4% 33
Three Pointers D 88% 311 C 1.0% 131
Total C- 58% 236 B 7.5% 49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 151 16.0 13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 138 0.21 316
Consistency 0.10 46 0.11 75
Improvement +0.1 184 -2.3 297

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 332 332 332
Results Rating Rank 326 325 325
Conference Record 2 - 18 2 - 18 2 - 18
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 43 - 86 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 74 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -12 D- F F C- -3 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 364 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 84% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D- -8 F+ F+ F B- +2 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 62 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 2% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -10 C- -1 C C+ D- F -12 B+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 158 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 9% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 90% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F B- B+ D -5 D- B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 63 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 2% -13  12% 2 - 4 F+ -18 F -20 F B+ F B+ +7 B+ F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 133 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 7% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +4 D D A B+ +6 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 178 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 11% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -19 F -12 F A F D -6 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 143 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 8% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +5 A+ F C- F -26 F F F+
 Thu, Dec 11 125 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 15% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -12 F+ -10 F B F+ C -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 273 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 41% -4  12% 3 - 8 F+ -17 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 159 Idaho W 64 - 63 20% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -2 D- -8 B- C- F B+ +6 A C C+
 Thu, Jan 1 110 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 13% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -3 B +7 C B+ A F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 174 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 D B+ A C- -2 D+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 271 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 41% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 F -12 F A+ F B +4 D+ A A
 Sat, Jan 10 250 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 19% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D+ -8 D- -6 D+ F D C -1 D F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 143 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 19% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C -0 F A B+ F+ -9 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 137 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 18% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -23 F -12 D- F F F -10 C D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 119 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D -5 F F A+ F -13 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 221 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 31% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -31 F+ -9 D+ A- F F -20 F D- A
 Sat, Jan 31 174 UC Davis L 72 - 80 24% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D+ -4 C B- D F+ -8 B F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 110 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 5% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -9 D- -8 F B+ F C -1 B- A F
 Sat, Feb 7 179 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 11% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 D- -14 F -12 F C- D- C -1 D- A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 119 Hawaii L 74 - 89 14% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ D C+ F -14 D F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 271 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 22% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -31 F -17 F F D F -12 F A- D-
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 24% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -12 C- -1 F+ C A F -11 F B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 137 @UC San Diego L 72 - 84 8% -11  1% 6 - 21 2 - 15 D+ -8 C +0 C F D D- -8 B- F C
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Long Beach St. L 87 - 88 37% -3  15% 6 - 22 2 - 16 D -9 C+ +3 C C+ A F -12 F A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 178 Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 86 24% -0  42% 6 - 23 2 - 17 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F A- C- -2 B+ F A-
 Sat, Mar 7 221 @Cal Poly L 76 - 108 15% -18  10% 6 - 24 2 - 18 F -32 F -12 F+ C F F -15 D- F+ F
Totals 6 - 24 2 - 18 -11 D -5 F D- F+ D- -6 F+ C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ F+ D- 37% 65% 29% F+ D- C D+ C- D B+ C+ B+ D- C- D- D D 40% 19% 41% C- D F C- F+ C+ D- C D-
1.01 54% 35% 29% -5 -2 0.89 31% 1.0 .29 19% .36 74% .26 1.17 59% 43% 37% +3 0 1.09 37% 1.1 .39 17% .36 72% .26
Nov
3		 California F F D D- D- 51% 33% 16% D+ D- B- F F F A+ D+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 47% 14% 39% F F F B- F A F B+ D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D- C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C- F+ B- F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi C- C+ B- F C+ 41% 39% 20% D C B C- C+ D- A+ D- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A F+ F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- B+ C- 34% 32% 34% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F F F B- F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F+ F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ B B- B+ A+ D- A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- B- B+ B- F F A+ F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B B+ B+ F A+ F A+ B+ C- F A+ A 44% 2% 54% F B+ F+ C- F+ A+ F F F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. B- B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D- C- D A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F A+ F F F A F+ D+ F+
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A B- A F A+ B A+ D C- F C D- 57% 8% 35% F F+ F D- F C F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A+ F F F C- A+ C- A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F+ F F+ F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F+ C F F+ F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ C+ B F+ A+ A- A+ C A A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B+ F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F C- F F 40% 24% 36% D- F B+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F+ A+ A+ A- F+ A D
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho D- B+ A- C B 27% 33% 40% F+ B- D+ B C- F F F F B+ B- B- A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C C C C+ C+ F C-
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F C A+ D+ B+ A B+ A- A- F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B D C+ C- D+ 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A B+ A A A+ A+ C- A D+ F D+ 34% 11% 55% F+ D+ F D F B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F C+ B+ B B A+ F+ F D+ 42% 18% 40% C- D+ B A+ A A C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D D+ A+ C+ C C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D B- F F+ B+ F D F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C D+ A F D- 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A B+ B C- B- F+ C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% C+ D+ D A+ B C- F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C+ D- 29% 29% 43% F+ D- B- F F F A+ C- A+ F A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C- C B- F D- F D- C- D
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F B+ F A+ A+ B- A+ F F A- A+ B 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D+ F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B A- A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A D- A D F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D+ D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C D+ A+ B- D B D C+ F+ C+ D- B+ B- 29% 29% 42% A- B D- F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine D- F C- F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B B+ B+ F B+ A+ A+ C C F+ A+ B+ 57% 20% 23% F B- F A+ A F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F+ C- D- A+ F C C A+ F F D- 35% 15% 50% D+ D- F+ A+ A- C- D- C- D-
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C- A- A+ F A- 25% 55% 20% F C+ C- F D C+ C+ A- B F F A+ D- F 30% 30% 40% A+ D F F F C- F D- F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ A- D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton C- A+ F+ F D+ 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- B C A A- A A F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F B- C- D+ B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22
Feb
26		 UC San Diego C A+ A+ F B- 30% 28% 41% D- C F A F D A+ A A+ D- B F B- C+ 39% 18% 43% B B- F F F C F C F
1.01 79% 54% 16% -1 -2 0.98 13% 1.3 .17 18% .55 78% .43 1.18 53% 50% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.8 .61 17% .59 69% .40
Feb
28		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D- C+ 40% 38% 22% F C D- A+ C+ A A+ F+ A+ F F C F F 40% 31% 29% D+ F B- A+ A+ A F A D
1.17 72% 35% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.7 .36 12% .67 68% .46 1.19 81% 38% 60% +20 -1 1.40 23% 0.3 .08 23% .35 65% .23
Mar
5		 Cal St. Northridge D+ B- F B- C 39% 25% 36% C- C D F F A- C+ F D+ C- B F A+ B+ 38% 22% 40% A- B+ F F F A- C+ F D+
1.06 63% 27% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 0.8 .19 13% .32 64% .20 1.08 52% 46% 25% -6 0 0.90 43% 1.4 .60 21% .29 78% .22
Mar
7		 Cal Poly F D- B- F+ D- 38% 25% 38% D F+ C- C+ C F C+ F C- F F A+ D+ F+ 44% 6% 50% D+ D- F C F+ F D+ C D+
0.92 52% 43% 29% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 65% .20 1.31 70% 0% 35% +4 +2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 11% .33 79% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18 100.0% 100.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%