UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.8 #146
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #166
Pace 63.1 #322
Improvement +2.2 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #79 B+ C C- C+ C
Defense #280 D+ C C D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.24 #89 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.75 #176 -0.7 #216
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.21 #9 +5.7 #28
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #38 +6.0 #38
Freethrows 0.30 #191 77% #43 0.23 #133
Second Chance 32.5% #126 1.01 #223 0.33 #154
Turnovers 17.5% #250
Total Offense +4.2 #79

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.22 #264 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.95 #362 -1.5 #298
Three Pointers 42% #137 1.04 #216 -1.1 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #289 -3.6 #290
Freethrows 0.36 #326 72% #156 0.26 #324
Second Chance 27.2% #68 1.16 #317 0.32 #178
Turnovers 16.3% #185
Total Defense -3.3 #280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #169 0.3% #188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.4% #29 6.8% #306
Possession Length 18.7 #309 17.8 #262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #303 0.16 #152
Improvement +1.0 #133 +1.2 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 15.3% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 93.9% 98.8% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 98.5% 90.5%
Conference Champion 6.8% 13.7% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.8% 15.3% 8.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 413 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 249 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 80% +9  1 - 0 +3 +17 A+ C+ B- -13 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 293 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 70% +6  2 - 0 +0 +12 B- C A+ -12 F C+ C+
 Mon, Nov 17 155 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 64% +3  2 - 1 -7 -1 D+ C+ A+ -5 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 74 @Nevada L 64 - 77 18% -8  2 - 2 -2 -2 D B F -0 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 303 Lehigh W 72 - 70 81% -1  3 - 2 -6 +3 F D+ B -9 C- D C+
 Sat, Nov 29 123 Seattle W 74 - 71 43% +1  4 - 2 +6 +17 A+ A+ F -11 D- D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 251 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 80% +1  5 - 2 1 - 0 -1 +3 B- F D -4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 87% +14  6 - 2 2 - 0 +14 +27 A+ A B -14 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 109 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 39% -12  6 - 3 -11 -15 F C F +3 B+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 243 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 60% -8  6 - 4 -5 +2 A- C+ F -8 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 204 Portland W 79 - 61 74% +11  7 - 4 +12 +12 A+ C+ F+ +2 A F B
 Thu, Jan 1 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 54% -13  7 - 5 2 - 1 -11 +5 A+ C- F -15 F+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 55% -6  7 - 6 2 - 2 -9 -11 F F+ F +2 C- C- A
 Thu, Jan 8 182 UC Davis L 86 - 93 70% +3  7 - 7 2 - 3 -12 +9 A+ F A+ -21 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 72% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +10 B F C- -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 99 Hawaii W 77 - 62 44% +12  9 - 7 4 - 3 +17 +19 A+ A- D- +0 C+ B B
 Thu, Jan 22 288 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 85% +24  10 - 7 5 - 3 +30 +34 A+ A+ B- -2 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 251 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 61% +8  11 - 7 6 - 3 +1 +9 C+ C+ A- -8 F+ A D-
 Thu, Jan 29 114 @UC San Diego L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 76 75%
 Thu, Feb 5 182 @UC Davis L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 119 UC Irvine W 71 - 70 54%
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @UC Riverside W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 288 @Cal Poly W 85 - 80 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 217 Cal St. Northridge W 84 - 77 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 99 @Hawaii L 68 - 76 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 291 UC Riverside W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 119 @UC Irvine L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 114 UC San Diego W 74 - 73 51%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1 +4 B+ C C- -3 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 2.9 1.6 0.2 6.8 1st
2nd 0.6 4.7 7.1 3.3 0.3 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.7 12.0 4.2 0.3 26.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 9.2 11.3 3.0 0.1 25.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.4 1.6 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.1 11.0 17.9 22.3 20.0 13.1 6.5 1.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 85.0% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 44.5% 2.9    1.1 1.4 0.4
14-6 14.0% 1.8    0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 2.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 49.0% 49.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.9% 27.5% 27.5% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.4
15-5 6.5% 26.6% 26.6% 13.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 4.8
14-6 13.1% 20.6% 20.6% 13.4 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 10.4
13-7 20.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 17.2
12-8 22.3% 8.0% 8.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 20.5
11-9 17.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 17.1
10-10 11.0% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.7
9-11 5.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
8-12 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.6 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 16.7 62.5 20.8