UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.5 #114
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #96
Pace 67.9 #213
Improvement -5.2 #352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #126 B- C- B D+ B
Defense #111 B- C C- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.22 #109 +2.9 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #325 0.79 #127 -2.7 #312
Three Pointers 46% #82 1.04 #150 +3.0 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #86 +3.2 #86
Freethrows 0.27 #281 69% #285 0.19 #303
Second Chance 27.3% #271 1.08 #126 0.29 #232
Turnovers 14.3% #51
Total Offense +1.6 #126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.07 #70 +4.1 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #218 0.78 #229 +0.3 #164
Three Pointers 47% #40 0.97 #115 -1.9 #276
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #99 +2.5 #97
Freethrows 0.26 #51 68% #21 0.17 #29
Second Chance 30.0% #154 1.06 #216 0.32 #184
Turnovers 15.5% #229
Total Defense +1.9 #111

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #39 -0.2% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #114 -4.7% #88
Possession Length 16.4 #87 18.3 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #130 0.16 #138
Improvement -5.6 #362 +0.3 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 19.8% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 97.2% 95.3%
Conference Champion 7.7% 8.1% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.2% 19.8% 16.4%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 311 - 312 - 6
Quad 411 - 423 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 300 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 91% +13  1 - 0 +7 -2 C+ D- C- +9 C A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 152 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 50% +4  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ B- F -0 D+ B- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 189 Idaho W 75 - 67 79% -3  3 - 0 +3 -1 C D C- +4 A C C
 Mon, Nov 24 143 Temple W 91 - 76 59% +9  4 - 0 +16 +20 A+ F A+ -4 A- F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 126 Bradley W 87 - 77 56% +3  5 - 0 +12 +15 C A+ A+ -3 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 164 Towson W 87 - 73 65% +13  6 - 0 +14 +25 A+ C A+ -10 C C- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 74 @Nevada L 70 - 76 24% -4  6 - 1 +5 +8 D- A+ A+ -4 C- D C
 Sat, Dec 6 251 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 70% +4  7 - 1 1 - 0 +4 +9 A F C+ -5 C- B- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 174 Tulane W 93 - 67 67% +16  8 - 1 +25 +10 B D+ B +12 B+ B+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 155 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 51% +3  9 - 1 +13 -2 B C F +15 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 212 San Diego W 82 - 72 82% -7 
 Thu, Jan 1 288 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 77% +2  9 - 2 1 - 1 -6 -7 F B D+ +0 A- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 99 Hawaii W 83 - 73 54% +7  10 - 2 2 - 1 +12 +18 A- A A -6 C+ D+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 82% -4  10 - 3 2 - 2 -23 -4 F A- F -20 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 291 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 78% -1  11 - 3 3 - 2 -1 +0 C+ C- F -2 B+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 217 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 82% -2  11 - 4 3 - 3 -11 +0 F+ C+ A+ -11 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 80% +13  12 - 4 4 - 3 +16 +7 C D A+ +8 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 182 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 58% +1  13 - 4 5 - 3 +7 +3 B D- F+ +4 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 24 119 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 64% -1  13 - 5 5 - 4 -2 -9 C+ F A +7 B A D
 Thu, Jan 29 146 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 217 @Cal St. Northridge W 81 - 77 64%
 Thu, Feb 5 251 Long Beach St. W 78 - 67 86%
 Sun, Feb 8 99 @Hawaii L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 182 UC Davis W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 291 UC Riverside W 79 - 65 90%
 Sat, Feb 21 119 @UC Irvine L 69 - 71 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 288 Cal Poly W 88 - 74 90%
 Thu, Mar 5 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 76 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 74 49%
Totals 21 - 9 13 - 7 +3 +2 B- C- B +2 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.1 3.8 1.6 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.6 9.6 4.0 0.2 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 9.7 15.6 6.5 0.5 33.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.6 10.3 3.0 0.1 22.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.0 1.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.1 14.9 22.1 24.5 18.2 8.3 1.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 90.3% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 45.9% 3.8    1.5 1.8 0.5
14-6 11.3% 2.1    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 2.8 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.8% 40.9% 40.9% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.0
15-5 8.3% 36.9% 36.9% 12.2 0.1 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.2
14-6 18.2% 28.2% 28.2% 12.6 0.0 2.5 2.4 0.3 13.1
13-7 24.5% 19.2% 19.2% 12.8 0.0 1.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 19.8
12-8 22.1% 14.7% 14.7% 13.1 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 18.9
11-9 14.9% 11.0% 11.0% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 13.3
10-10 7.1% 7.9% 7.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.6
9-11 2.4% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
8-12 0.6% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 12.7 80.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.6 0.8 36.5 60.3 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%