Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #217
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #194
Pace 80.6 #6
Improvement +3.2 #46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #211 C C C- C- B
Defense #233 C C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 1.10 #250 +3.7 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #243 0.71 #243 -1.6 #263
Three Pointers 36% #298 1.02 #190 -2.8 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #197 -0.7 #196
Freethrows 0.31 #152 66% #339 0.21 #215
Second Chance 33.6% #99 0.93 #324 0.31 #191
Turnovers 17.1% #227
Total Offense -1.6 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.19 #231 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.81 #266 +0.3 #161
Three Pointers 49% #20 1.01 #167 -3.7 #319
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #199 -0.7 #200
Freethrows 0.31 #200 77% #353 0.24 #271
Second Chance 26.3% #45 1.24 #354 0.33 #208
Turnovers 15.0% #273
Total Defense -1.8 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #50 -0.2% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.5% #236 1.6% #210
Possession Length 14.9 #16 17.2 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #140 0.19 #260
Improvement +0.5 #153 +2.7 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 37.1% 48.3% 23.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.8% 58.6% 30.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.0% 4.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 108 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 17% -17  0 - 1 -22 -9 D- D- F -12 D- D C
 Sun, Nov 9 290 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 54% +4  1 - 1 +4 +9 B- B- D+ -6 D+ D F
 Tue, Nov 11 134 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 23% -5  1 - 2 -17 -12 F B+ F -3 A F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 115 Troy W 94 - 85 36% +4  2 - 2 +9 +16 B+ A+ D -7 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 189 Idaho L 64 - 78 44% -4  2 - 3 -16 -14 F C C- -2 A F C
 Fri, Nov 28 225 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 52% -18  2 - 4 -36 -30 F D F -3 C F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 77% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +5 C+ B- C- +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 19% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D- A+ -14 C- F D+
 Wed, Dec 10 152 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 47% +4  4 - 5 -0 +17 A+ F+ B -17 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 297 @Delaware W 88 - 66 55% +19  5 - 5 +17 +17 A+ C- C+ +1 C+ B- A
 Mon, Dec 22 293 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 76% +4  6 - 5 +1 +7 A- F B -8 D+ A F
 Sat, Dec 27 84 @Stanford L 80 - 88 11% -1  6 - 6 +2 +7 B+ F C -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 182 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 32% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -8 +1 C D+ F+ -8 F A- B
 Sat, Jan 3 146 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 45% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +7 -7 D+ C+ F +13 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 8 288 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 75% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -5 +4 A B- D -10 C- C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 38% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 -1 C D C+ -5 D C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 114 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 18% +2  9 - 8 4 - 3 +11 +12 C- A- A+ -1 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 251 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 67% -0  9 - 9 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- D -8 D B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 99 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 14% -9  9 - 10 4 - 5 -13 -3 C+ D D+ -7 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 29 182 UC Davis W 82 - 81 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 114 UC San Diego L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 5 288 @Cal Poly W 90 - 89 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 291 UC Riverside W 82 - 75 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Hawaii L 75 - 81 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 @Long Beach St. L 79 - 80 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 119 UC Irvine L 75 - 78 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @UC Riverside W 79 - 78 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 81 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 87 - 84 61%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3 -2 C C C- -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.7 0.3 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.4 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 7.7 6.8 1.0 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 9.1 8.7 1.7 0.0 21.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 8.4 8.0 1.9 0.1 19.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.1 5.8 1.5 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.3 17.0 20.6 19.7 14.7 7.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.8% 9.7% 9.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 2.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-8 7.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
11-9 14.7% 2.0% 2.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.4
10-10 19.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.4
9-11 20.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.1 0.1 20.4
8-12 17.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.9
7-13 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 4.8% 4.8
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.6 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%