Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #250
Pace 68.0 #207
Improvement +3.0 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #238 C D+ C D+ D-
Defense #249 C- C- C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.26 #80 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.73 #214 +3.3 #43
Three Pointers 35% #308 1.00 #209 -3.2 #293
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.5 #188
Freethrows 0.26 #296 73% #150 0.19 #274
Second Chance 26.7% #287 1.01 #222 0.27 #276
Turnovers 16.3% #167
Total Offense -2.5 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.24 #288 -3.3 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.84 #304 -1.2 #279
Three Pointers 37% #282 0.97 #113 +2.7 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #240 -1.8 #241
Freethrows 0.35 #309 76% #336 0.26 #330
Second Chance 26.7% #53 1.31 #363 0.35 #255
Turnovers 16.6% #173
Total Defense -2.4 #249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 0.2% #178
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.1% #143 3.4% #246
Possession Length 17.7 #210 17.1 #142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #241 0.18 #206
Improvement +0.0 #185 +3.0 #31

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.9% 33.1% 11.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 1.6% 11.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 112 - 16
Quad 48 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 46 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 5% -13  0 - 1 -18 -20 F+ D F +3 B+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 152 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 21% -10  0 - 2 -16 -7 D- D- F+ -9 F B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 131 @Pacific L 66 - 69 18% +3  0 - 3 +2 -3 D- B D- +5 A+ F B
 Sun, Nov 16 89 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 22% -4  0 - 4 +1 +11 A C+ A+ -10 B- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 157 Montana St. L 72 - 78 42% -3  0 - 5 -9 -2 C+ D- C- -7 C+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 204 @Portland L 73 - 93 31% -11  0 - 6 -20 -1 D+ C- D+ -19 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 212 San Diego W 76 - 72 54% -1  1 - 6 -2 +8 C+ A+ A+ -10 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 20% -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -3 -1 F A+ C- -1 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 114 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 30% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -6 +4 B D- B -10 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 249 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 38% -1  1 - 9 -8 +7 D B+ D+ -14 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 280 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 68% -2  2 - 9 -7 +6 B+ D B+ -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 7 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1% -29  2 - 10 -8 -4 D+ F A -3 D+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 288 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 70% +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -5 C- D D+ +3 A+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 119 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 16% -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -4 -2 B- F D+ -2 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 75 73% +5  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 -3 C D+ F -3 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 291 UC Riverside W 88 - 73 70% +10  5 - 11 3 - 3 +5 +13 A+ C B -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @Cal St. Northridge W 87 - 80 33% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 +7 +4 B- D- D+ +2 A F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 61 - 71 33% -11  6 - 12 4 - 4 -10 -9 D F F -1 F+ A- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 146 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 74 39% -8  6 - 13 4 - 5 -5 +2 B- F A- -7 C+ D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 291 @UC Riverside L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 99 Hawaii L 68 - 75 24%
 Thu, Feb 5 114 @UC San Diego L 67 - 78 14%
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 182 @UC Davis L 72 - 78 27%
 Thu, Feb 19 119 UC Irvine L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 Cal St. Northridge W 80 - 79 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 288 @Cal Poly L 81 - 82 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 74 51%
 Thu, Mar 5 182 UC Davis L 74 - 75 48%
 Sun, Mar 8 99 @Hawaii L 65 - 78 11%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5 -3 C D+ C -2 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.9 3.0 0.3 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 7.5 5.6 0.7 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 9.4 8.1 1.3 0.0 20.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 10.1 9.9 2.1 0.1 24.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 6.1 6.1 1.3 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.7 1.1 0.4 2.2 11th
Total 1.0 4.6 11.8 18.8 22.5 19.4 12.8 6.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 23.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.6% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.0
11-9 6.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 6.2
10-10 12.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.7
9-11 19.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 19.2
8-12 22.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 22.4
7-13 18.8% 18.8
6-14 11.8% 11.8
5-15 4.6% 4.6
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%