Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#272
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#255
Pace84.7#3
Improvement+2.1#60

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#248
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#330
Layup/Dunks+1.0#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#231
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+1.1#85

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#269
First Shot-2.8#270
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#280
Freethrows-2.6#327
Improvement+0.9#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.5 15.3
.500 or above 3.6% 13.9% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 15.3% 26.4% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 12.9% 22.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 1.3% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 97 @Wyoming L 82-92 10%     0 - 1 -1.9 -0.7 +0.4
  Mon, Nov 10 82 @California L 65-93 7%     0 - 2 -17.7 -9.4 -5.7
  Sat, Nov 15 129 Pacific L 73-85 31%     0 - 3 -12.9 -7.5 -4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 269 @Portland L 85-103 38%     0 - 4 -20.7 +1.9 -20.7
  Sat, Nov 22 136 St. Thomas W 88-80 24%     1 - 4 +9.6 +8.2 +0.6
  Sun, Nov 23 156 Northern Colorado L 93-97 28%     1 - 5 -3.8 +7.4 -10.7
  Sat, Nov 29 293 Pepperdine W 83-69 67%     2 - 5 +3.7 +7.2 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 4 249 Cal Poly L 91-94 59%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.1 -2.5 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 111 @Hawaii L 59-69 13%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -3.5 -8.9 +5.7
  Sat, Dec 13 314 @Denver W 105-86 51%     3 - 7 +13.0 +14.1 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 53 @Oklahoma St. L 81-100 4%    
  Sun, Dec 28 39 @SMU L 75-96 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 151 UC Santa Barbara L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 122 UC Irvine L 73-79 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 89 @UC San Diego L 76-91 9%    
  Sat, Jan 10 222 Cal St. Northridge W 88-87 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 201 @UC Davis L 76-82 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 268 @UC Riverside L 79-82 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 Long Beach St. W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 249 @Cal Poly L 89-93 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 151 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-85 20%    
  Thu, Feb 5 268 UC Riverside W 82-79 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-79 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 279 @Long Beach St. L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 @UC Irvine L 70-82 14%    
  Thu, Feb 19 201 UC Davis L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 82-83 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 111 Hawaii L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 89 UC San Diego L 79-88 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 222 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-90 32%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.2 4.1 0.6 0.1 17.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 6.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.1 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.8 9.2 13.1 14.8 14.8 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 31.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.4% 11.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 5.1% 5.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.1% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-9 4.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
10-10 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.9
9-11 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.3
8-12 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
7-13 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
6-14 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-15 13.1% 13.1
4-16 9.2% 9.2
3-17 5.8% 5.8
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%