Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #265
Pace 84.6 #1
Improvement -3.2 #314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #267 C C- F+ B- B+
Defense #293 D+ C- D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.08 #275 -2.6 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.51 #364 -5.8 #365
Three Pointers 56% #1 1.02 #184 +7.5 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #200 -0.8 #201
Freethrows 0.32 #121 75% #106 0.24 #105
Second Chance 30.2% #200 0.98 #263 0.30 #226
Turnovers 20.2% #352
Total Offense -3.4 #267

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.26 #304 -2.4 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #312 0.73 #132 +2.0 #47
Three Pointers 45% #73 1.02 #186 -2.0 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.5 #267
Freethrows 0.30 #171 74% #276 0.22 #195
Second Chance 30.9% #193 1.09 #260 0.34 #236
Turnovers 15.0% #277
Total Defense -4.0 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #24 1.3% #289
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #253 3.6% #249
Possession Length 14.6 #8 17.1 #133
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #129 0.21 #299
Improvement -0.1 #187 -3.1 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.6% 7.0% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.4% 10.8% 39.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 44 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @USC L 64 - 94 3% -12  0 - 1 -16 -11 C- C- F -0 C B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 123 @Seattle W 73 - 71 12% -4  1 - 1 +8 +3 B C F +5 D+ B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 97 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 8% -9  1 - 2 -6 +2 B- F+ D+ -6 C B F+
 Fri, Nov 14 161 @Montana L 82 - 90 17% -7  1 - 3 -5 -0 C C- D- -4 A- D- F+
 Thu, Nov 20 104 @Utah W 92 - 85 9% +7  2 - 3 +15 +5 A C F +8 B- A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 313 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 44% -0  2 - 4 -12 -1 B- F F+ -10 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 40% -3  2 - 5 -21 -10 F B+ F -10 D+ C C-
 Thu, Dec 4 216 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 25% +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +5 A+ F F -3 D+ D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 62% -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -14 +5 B F+ D- -19 D- D F
 Tue, Dec 16 157 Montana St. L 80 - 83 33% -3  3 - 7 -6 +3 F A+ C -9 B+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 37 @UCLA L 87 - 108 2% -7  3 - 8 -5 +12 A+ C F -14 F A- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 189 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 41% -7  3 - 9 -8 -9 F F D +1 B- C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 114 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 23% -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +2 -2 D- C B +4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 251 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 30% -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -10 -9 F C C+ -1 C- C C
 Thu, Jan 8 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 25% +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 +5 C C D+ -9 F D C
 Sat, Jan 10 182 UC Davis W 84 - 78 39% -6  5 - 11 3 - 3 +1 +4 D C A -3 B+ C+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 99 Hawaii L 66 - 86 18% -8  5 - 12 3 - 4 -18 -8 B- B- F -7 D- B- C
 Thu, Jan 22 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 15% -24  5 - 13 3 - 5 -36 -4 C- F+ D- -34 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 46% -8  5 - 14 3 - 6 -21 -1 C B F -19 F C C
 Thu, Jan 29 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 83 - 85 41%
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @UC Riverside L 79 - 82 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 217 Cal St. Northridge L 89 - 90 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 182 @UC Davis L 79 - 88 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 119 UC Irvine L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 146 UC Santa Barbara L 80 - 85 32%
 Fri, Feb 20 99 @Hawaii L 72 - 88 7%
 Thu, Feb 26 251 Long Beach St. W 82 - 81 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 114 @UC San Diego L 74 - 88 10%
 Thu, Mar 5 119 @UC Irvine L 72 - 85 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 86 - 82 64%
Totals 8 - 22 6 - 14 -7 -3 C C- F+ -4 D+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 9.2 6.8 1.1 0.0 19.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 12.2 10.4 1.7 0.1 27.2 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 9.6 8.7 1.4 0.0 21.9 10th
11th 1.9 6.4 5.3 1.0 0.0 14.6 11th
Total 1.9 8.7 17.8 23.8 22.4 14.5 7.5 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
9-11 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
7-13 22.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.4
6-14 23.8% 23.8
5-15 17.8% 17.8
4-16 8.7% 8.7
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%