Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#249
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#211
Pace86.2#2
Improvement-1.3#274

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#233
First Shot-1.5#219
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#234
Layup/Dunks-5.3#338
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#11
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+1.7#61

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-3.5#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#132
Layups/Dunks-1.2#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#255
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-3.0#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 9.4% 14.5% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 28.0% 32.9% 23.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 8.5% 13.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 47 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 34 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -14.0 -12.6 +3.3
  Sat, Nov 8 119 @Seattle W 73-71 15%     1 - 1 +8.2 -1.3 +9.3
  Wed, Nov 12 69 @Colorado St. L 79-93 8%     1 - 2 -3.1 +1.8 -3.9
  Fri, Nov 14 205 @Montana L 82-90 31%     1 - 3 -7.9 -3.3 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 120 @Utah W 92-85 15%     2 - 3 +13.1 +5.3 +6.6
  Mon, Nov 24 270 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 41%     2 - 4 -8.8 +3.2 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 25 217 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 43%     2 - 5 -19.4 -9.8 -8.6
  Thu, Dec 4 272 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 41%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +0.2 +2.8 -3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 268 UC Riverside L 84-88 64%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -12.7 +4.3 -17.0
  Tue, Dec 16 174 Montana St. L 77-78 46%    
  Fri, Dec 19 30 @UCLA L 68-90 2%    
  Sun, Dec 21 173 Idaho L 82-83 46%    
  Thu, Jan 1 89 UC San Diego L 80-88 23%    
  Sat, Jan 3 279 @Long Beach St. L 80-82 43%    
  Thu, Jan 8 222 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-91 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 201 UC Davis W 80-79 52%    
  Thu, Jan 15 111 Hawaii L 76-82 31%    
  Thu, Jan 22 151 @UC Santa Barbara L 77-86 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-89 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-83 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 268 @UC Riverside L 81-83 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 222 Cal St. Northridge W 90-88 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 201 @UC Davis L 77-82 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 122 UC Irvine L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Feb 14 151 UC Santa Barbara L 80-83 40%    
  Fri, Feb 20 111 @Hawaii L 73-85 15%    
  Thu, Feb 26 279 Long Beach St. W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 89 @UC San Diego L 77-91 11%    
  Thu, Mar 5 122 @UC Irvine L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Mar 7 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-80 72%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.8 4.1 0.9 0.1 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.0 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.5 4.1 0.9 0.0 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.4 8.8 12.0 14.3 15.1 13.2 10.6 7.4 5.0 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 89.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
14-6 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 31.5% 31.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 17.4% 17.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.5% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-7 2.6% 5.9% 5.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4
12-8 5.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
11-9 7.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
10-10 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 10.5
9-11 13.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.1
8-12 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.0
7-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 12.0% 12.0
5-15 8.8% 8.8
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%