UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #182
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #155
Pace 71.1 #120
Improvement -1.2 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 B- C- C- B C
Defense #201 C- C C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.23 #99 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.75 #192 -0.2 #184
Three Pointers 44% #115 1.10 #73 +3.5 #66
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #96 +2.8 #95
Freethrows 0.34 #79 75% #90 0.25 #58
Second Chance 26.2% #299 1.12 #82 0.29 #234
Turnovers 17.4% #243
Total Offense -0.7 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.17 #189 -1.4 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #290 0.68 #59 +2.1 #41
Three Pointers 42% #132 1.09 #287 -2.3 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #232 -1.7 #232
Freethrows 0.34 #291 73% #219 0.25 #291
Second Chance 30.8% #191 1.02 #140 0.32 #171
Turnovers 17.6% #98
Total Defense -0.9 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #210 1.2% #284
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #82 2.1% #222
Possession Length 16.3 #76 17.6 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #185 0.17 #191
Improvement -0.3 #191 -0.9 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 74.0% 86.8% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 85.2% 59.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.8% 5.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 4
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 134 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 50% +2  1 - 0 +11 +7 A A F +4 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 204 @Portland L 63 - 67 43% +0  1 - 1 -4 -9 F B- F +5 B B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 293 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 80% -2  2 - 1 -7 -4 D- C D -3 D+ C A-
 Tue, Nov 18 74 @Nevada W 75 - 71 13% -0  3 - 1 +15 +2 A+ F F +12 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 82 @Colorado L 79 - 95 14% -6  3 - 2 -6 +9 B- A+ D+ -15 F C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 314 Louisiana W 77 - 56 84% +8  4 - 2 +9 +6 A- C- B- +4 C+ B- A-
 Thu, Dec 4 99 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 18% -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +2 +3 C D+ C+ -1 F+ B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 72 @Oregon L 62 - 104 13% -30  4 - 4 -31 -8 D- D D -22 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 123 Seattle L 78 - 79 46% -4  4 - 5 -1 +7 A+ F A- -8 C F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 225 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 47% +8  5 - 5 +9 +24 A+ C+ A+ -14 F C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 217 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 68% +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +3 +5 A+ F F -4 C- B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 82% +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -13 -0 C+ D+ D- -13 D D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 146 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 30% -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +11 +17 A B- B- -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 288 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 61% +6  7 - 7 2 - 3 -10 -1 D- D C -9 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 216 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 68% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -1 -6 D B- F +4 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 119 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 45% +2  9 - 7 4 - 3 +3 +8 D+ A- B -5 D C+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 114 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 42% -1  9 - 8 4 - 4 -6 -3 D D- C+ -2 D B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 291 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 80% +10  10 - 8 5 - 4 -2 -2 B- D F -1 B+ F C
 Thu, Jan 29 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 81 - 82 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 75 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 146 UC Santa Barbara W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Cal Poly W 88 - 79 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 114 @UC San Diego L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 251 Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 81 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 291 @UC Riverside W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Feb 26 99 Hawaii L 71 - 75 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 251 @Long Beach St. W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Mar 7 119 @UC Irvine L 68 - 75 25%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 -2 -1 B- C- C- -1 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.1 1.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 9.1 8.5 1.9 0.1 21.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 9.5 9.9 2.1 0.1 23.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.1 7.7 1.7 0.1 17.7 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 5.7 1.2 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.1 8.8 15.8 20.3 21.8 15.8 9.0 3.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 46.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 14.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.8% 25.9% 25.9% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-6 3.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-7 9.0% 8.8% 8.8% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.2
12-8 15.8% 4.9% 4.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 15.1
11-9 21.8% 3.7% 3.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 21.0
10-10 20.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 19.9
9-11 15.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.6
8-12 8.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.8
7-13 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 13.7 96.2 0.0%