Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
155 Marist 24.1%   15   6 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 8 15 - 5 +0.2      -5.1 304 +5.3 44 67.7 231 +1.1 157 +3.8 2
164 Siena 21.6%   9 - 2 2 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 -0.3      -1.5 207 +1.2 132 64.7 302 +3.0 131 +0.2 4
168 Quinnipiac 19.3%   7 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 10 15 - 5 -0.8      -1.9 221 +1.2 133 77.3 27 +6.9 88 +13.7 1
170 Iona 18.0%   8 - 4 1 - 1 21 - 10 14 - 6 -0.9      -0.4 177 -0.5 185 76.2 38 +2.2 138 -3.0 6
254 Sacred Heart 5.5%   3 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 16 11 - 9 -5.2      -0.9 187 -4.3 319 71.7 124 -5.6 249 -4.2 8
273 Merrimack 3.9%   6 - 6 2 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 10 -5.9      -3.9 270 -2.0 240 62.7 338 -2.0 197 +2.6 3
292 St. Peter's 2.6%   4 - 5 2 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -7.2      -5.3 312 -1.9 237 62.5 342 -7.9 285 +0.2 4
296 Mount St. Mary's 2.0%   3 - 8 0 - 2 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7.4      -4.4 291 -3.0 274 68.4 216 -9.3 303 -20.2 13
305 Fairfield 1.5%   5 - 5 0 - 2 14 - 16 8 - 12 -8.0      -4.2 284 -3.7 297 69.4 190 -5.7 250 -20.2 12
321 Manhattan 0.9%   3 - 7 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -9.5      -1.7 215 -7.8 358 70.0 170 -9.7 307 -3.9 7
339 Canisius 0.3%   4 - 6 0 - 2 10 - 20 6 - 14 -11.1      -7.8 352 -3.3 283 62.3 344 -7.3 273 -17.0 10
347 Rider 0.2%   0 - 8 0 - 2 6 - 22 6 - 14 -12.0      -9.8 360 -2.2 244 64.4 311 -24.0 365 -16.1 9
353 Niagara 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13.1      -8.0 354 -5.1 334 63.3 326 -14.8 347 -17.0 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 273 Merrimack 59 255 Princeton 56   
Wed, Dec 10 297 Bryant 63 170 Iona 69   
Sat, Dec 13 170 Iona 64 16 St. John's 91   
Sat, Dec 13 339 Canisius 70 336 Maine 43   
Sat, Dec 13 297 Bryant 74 155 Marist 82   
Sat, Dec 13 168 Quinnipiac 75 304 Umass Lowell 71   
Sat, Dec 13 338 Loyola Maryland 73 296 Mount St. Mary's 81   
Sat, Dec 13 198 Fordham 82 321 Manhattan 53   
Sat, Dec 13 101 Georgetown 76 292 St. Peter's 68   
Sat, Dec 13 359 Morgan St. 81 353 Niagara 73   
Sat, Dec 13 352 NJIT 49 254 Sacred Heart 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 273 Merrimack 65 185 Vermont 72 75%   
Sun, Dec 14 305 Fairfield 72 206 Monmouth 74 58%   
Mon, Dec 15 353 Niagara 56 48 Virginia Commonwealth 83 99%   
Tue, Dec 16 131 Georgia Tech 69 155 Marist 64 67%   
Tue, Dec 16 254 Sacred Heart 78 304 Umass Lowell 79 51%   
Tue, Dec 16 282 Delaware 69 347 Rider 61 79%   
Tue, Dec 16 339 Canisius 58 116 Rhode Island 75 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 164 Siena 68 185 Vermont 70 56%   
Wed, Dec 17 206 Monmouth 76 168 Quinnipiac 75 53%   
Thu, Dec 18 241 Central Connecticut St. 73 305 Fairfield 66 73%   
Thu, Dec 18 148 Furman 80 321 Manhattan 73 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.7 34.2 21.0 16.2 12.2 7.2 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 2.8 30.4 22.2 17.2 13.0 7.9 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 2.7 31.8 23.7 17.8 11.9 6.7 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iona 3.2 19.6 23.2 20.9 16.4 9.0 5.0 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 5.5 4.0 7.1 10.5 14.1 17.4 14.4 11.2 8.0 5.8 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5
Merrimack 6.3 2.6 4.7 7.7 10.6 14.0 14.9 13.7 11.3 8.9 6.1 3.5 1.6 0.5
St. Peter's 7.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 8.2 11.7 14.1 13.9 12.9 11.0 8.9 5.6 3.0 0.9
Mount St. Mary's 7.8 0.5 1.6 3.2 5.7 9.5 12.0 13.8 13.5 12.6 10.9 8.4 5.4 3.0
Fairfield 8.4 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.9 6.9 9.9 12.0 13.6 14.3 13.3 11.0 7.7 4.4
Manhattan 8.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.1 10.4 12.6 14.1 13.9 12.6 10.5 7.2 3.8
Canisius 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.6 8.8 11.2 14.2 17.5 17.9 14.6
Rider 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.6 9.5 12.7 17.3 22.1 21.0
Niagara 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.7 11.3 16.2 22.5 30.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.7 8.6 11.6 14.2 15.4 14.3 11.5 7.8 3.5 0.8
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 5.9 9.0 12.4 15.0 15.9 14.6 11.0 6.2 2.7 0.5
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.3 8.5 12.1 15.2 16.7 14.7 11.8 6.9 2.9 0.6
Iona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.4 7.0 11.1 14.9 17.2 16.5 13.1 8.2 3.2 0.7
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.5 7.9 10.4 13.3 14.9 14.4 11.9 8.6 5.5 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.7 7.5 10.7 13.8 14.3 14.1 12.0 8.6 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.8 10.0 12.8 14.8 14.1 12.5 9.4 6.5 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.9 9.2 12.2 14.4 14.4 12.9 10.6 7.4 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.2 11.7 14.2 15.0 13.7 11.5 8.0 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.9 11.5 14.0 15.0 14.1 11.8 8.3 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 0.3 1.5 4.2 8.4 12.1 14.2 15.2 13.7 11.5 7.9 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 6 - 14 0.6 3.0 6.9 11.3 14.3 15.3 14.6 12.2 9.0 6.0 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 5 - 15 1.3 4.4 9.6 13.9 16.2 15.8 13.5 10.5 6.8 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 34.2% 23.4 8.4 2.0 0.3 0.0
Siena 30.4% 19.8 8.2 2.1 0.3 0.1
Quinnipiac 31.8% 20.5 8.8 2.2 0.3 0.0
Iona 19.6% 10.7 6.6 1.9 0.3 0.0
Sacred Heart 4.0% 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rider 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 8.4 7.5 2.1 75.9 0.0%
Siena 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.2 7.3 1.7 78.4 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.2 7.4 5.7 1.0 80.7 0.0%
Iona 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.2 6.9 2.2 82.0 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 94.5 0.0%
Merrimack 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 96.1 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 97.5 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.7 98.0 0.0%
Fairfield 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%
Manhattan 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Rider 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.1% 0.5% 23.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 21.6% 0.3% 21.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.3% 0.2% 19.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 18.0% 0.4% 17.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 3.9% 1.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 2.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.7% 1.0 4.3 95.7
2nd Round 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0