Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
210 Iona 13.8%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 12 - 8 -2.5      -1.2 212 -1.3 214 67.2 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
212 Quinnipiac 13.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 8 -2.6      -1.7 231 -1.0 200 76.6 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 St. Peter's 13.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 8 -2.7      -5.0 319 +2.3 105 61.5 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Marist 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 -3.5      -4.9 315 +1.4 131 62.9 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Fairfield 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -3.5      -1.8 235 -1.7 234 70.0 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Rider 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 11 - 9 -3.9      -2.3 251 -1.6 229 69.4 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 Merrimack 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 11 - 9 -3.9      -5.6 331 +1.7 124 68.0 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Mount St. Mary's 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -5.2      -3.7 291 -1.5 222 71.5 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Canisius 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 11 -7.0      -4.4 305 -2.5 261 67.1 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
308 Niagara 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -7.6      -4.2 303 -3.4 286 67.9 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 Manhattan 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 13 -10.0      -5.9 335 -4.1 317 69.8 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Sacred Heart 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -10.6      -5.1 320 -5.5 344 72.2 75 0.0 1 0.0 1
339 Siena 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 13 -11.0      -8.0 354 -3.1 276 65.6 263 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Iona 4.6 19.3 14.8 12.1 10.5 9.1 7.9 6.8 5.7 4.5 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.1
Quinnipiac 4.9 17.1 13.6 11.4 10.4 9.4 8.3 7.2 6.3 5.2 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.3
St. Peter's 4.7 18.2 14.3 11.9 10.5 9.0 7.9 6.9 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.2 1.3
Marist 5.3 14.2 11.7 10.9 10.2 9.2 8.5 7.8 6.8 6.0 5.3 4.3 3.1 2.0
Fairfield 5.4 13.2 11.4 10.7 10.0 9.6 8.9 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.6 4.3 3.2 1.8
Rider 5.9 10.6 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.3 9.3 8.3 8.0 7.4 6.3 5.3 3.9 2.2
Merrimack 5.5 12.0 11.6 10.9 10.6 9.6 8.8 8.0 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.3 1.8
Mount St. Mary's 6.4 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.1 3.3
Canisius 7.4 4.4 5.8 6.6 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.8 5.6
Niagara 7.8 3.7 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.0 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.3 7.3
Manhattan 9.1 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.0 5.1 5.9 7.0 8.1 9.6 10.9 12.6 14.3 15.5
Sacred Heart 9.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.2 4.0 5.2 6.1 7.4 9.4 11.2 13.6 16.0 18.2
Siena 9.6 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.1 6.3 7.5 9.1 10.9 13.4 15.9 19.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.4 6.7 8.8 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.5 7.7 5.5 3.5 1.7 0.5
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.3 10.5 10.6 9.9 8.6 7.1 4.8 2.9 1.3 0.4
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.6 7.2 8.7 9.6 10.6 10.7 9.8 9.1 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.5
Marist 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.6 5.8 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.3
Fairfield 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.7 7.2 8.7 9.6 10.8 10.3 9.9 8.7 7.1 5.5 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.2
Rider 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.8 6.4 8.1 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.2 9.6 7.8 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2
Merrimack 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.2 8.8 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.2 8.7 7.2 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.5 9.0 9.9 10.3 10.0 9.6 8.6 7.0 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Canisius 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.2 8.1 9.5 10.2 10.8 10.3 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Niagara 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 5.2 7.5 8.7 9.9 10.5 10.6 9.8 8.5 7.1 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.4 6.7 8.9 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.4 9.0 7.7 6.1 4.4 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 7 - 13 1.0 2.8 5.3 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.7 11.0 9.9 8.3 6.5 5.0 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 7 - 13 1.0 3.1 5.7 8.2 9.9 11.6 11.4 10.7 9.8 8.4 6.5 4.9 3.5 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 19.3% 13.0 4.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
Quinnipiac 17.1% 11.3 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 18.2% 12.1 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marist 14.2% 9.1 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 13.2% 8.5 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Rider 10.6% 6.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 12.0% 7.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8.1% 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Canisius 4.4% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 3.7% 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Siena 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.1 3.8 3.8 86.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.8 3.8 86.9 0.0%
St. Peter's 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.8 3.4 86.8 0.0%
Marist 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 89.5 0.0%
Fairfield 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.7 88.9 0.0%
Rider 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 2.9 90.4 0.0%
Merrimack 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.1 90.2 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 92.9 0.0%
Canisius 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 95.8 0.0%
Niagara 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 96.4 0.0%
Manhattan 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 98.4 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 98.7 0.0%
Siena 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 98.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 13.8% 1.9% 13.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 13.1% 1.8% 12.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 13.2% 1.7% 12.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 10.5% 2.1% 9.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 11.1% 2.7% 9.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 9.6% 1.5% 8.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 9.8% 2.4% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.1% 1.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 4.2% 1.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 3.6% 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 90.5% 0.9 9.5 90.5 0.0
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0