Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 Marist 24.4%   15   12 - 7 7 - 4 0.0      -5.5 313 +5.5 47 65.8 266 -1.5 192 -2.1 4
173 Siena 19.6%   14 - 7 7 - 3 -1.0      -0.8 186 -0.2 171 63.7 312 -1.5 193 -2.9 5
178 Quinnipiac 17.7%   13 - 8 7 - 4 -1.4      -1.9 219 +0.5 149 75.2 39 +0.7 150 -1.9 3
205 Merrimack 13.4%   13 - 9 9 - 2 -2.8      -2.8 248 0.0 167 62.5 340 +0.3 156 +4.2 1
227 Iona 7.5%   14 - 8 6 - 5 -3.8      -3.9 280 +0.1 164 73.8 60 -0.9 184 -5.4 6
228 St. Peter's 10.0%   10 - 7 8 - 2 -3.9      -4.4 292 +0.6 148 64.5 296 -2.0 204 +2.4 2
271 Fairfield 2.6%   12 - 9 5 - 6 -6.3      -1.6 213 -4.7 307 68.1 206 -4.7 235 -9.5 10
277 Sacred Heart 2.3%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -6.6      -1.0 191 -5.6 334 71.5 108 -8.1 297 -8.4 8
286 Mount St. Mary's 1.9%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -7.3      -6.0 325 -1.3 217 69.6 162 -7.1 277 -6.7 7
327 Manhattan 0.4%   7 - 14 4 - 7 -10.3      -3.1 263 -7.1 349 69.7 158 -9.3 317 -8.8 9
341 Canisius 0.1%   7 - 13 3 - 7 -11.7      -8.7 356 -3.0 270 62.5 338 -8.9 312 -11.1 11
349 Niagara 0.1%   4 - 15 2 - 8 -12.3      -7.1 339 -5.2 321 59.7 363 -13.9 350 -13.3 12
352 Rider 0.1%   1 - 17 1 - 9 -13.3      -8.1 349 -5.2 326 63.6 317 -23.2 362 -17.2 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 160 Marist 71 178 Quinnipiac 64   
Sat, Jan 24 286 Mount St. Mary's 71 352 Rider 61   
Sat, Jan 24 349 Niagara 70 277 Sacred Heart 71   
Sat, Jan 24 227 Iona 66 327 Manhattan 57   
Sat, Jan 24 341 Canisius 55 271 Fairfield 61   
Sat, Jan 24 205 Merrimack 67 228 St. Peter's 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 271 Fairfield 73 227 Iona 78 70%   
Fri, Jan 30 286 Mount St. Mary's 64 228 St. Peter's 71 73%   
Fri, Jan 30 178 Quinnipiac 84 277 Sacred Heart 76 78%   
Fri, Jan 30 327 Manhattan 75 352 Rider 69 72%   
Fri, Jan 30 341 Canisius 57 160 Marist 66 80%   
Fri, Jan 30 349 Niagara 61 173 Siena 69 79%   
Sun, Feb 1 205 Merrimack 76 277 Sacred Heart 69 74%   
Sun, Feb 1 271 Fairfield 76 178 Quinnipiac 78 57%   
Sun, Feb 1 327 Manhattan 72 286 Mount St. Mary's 78 72%   
Sun, Feb 1 341 Canisius 61 173 Siena 69 77%   
Sun, Feb 1 352 Rider 62 228 St. Peter's 69 73%   
Sun, Feb 1 160 Marist 66 349 Niagara 57 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.8 24.4 23.0 20.5 15.6 10.6 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Siena 3.1 23.6 19.2 17.2 15.3 13.9 8.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 3.0 19.7 22.8 21.6 17.4 11.5 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.1 48.5 21.1 13.3 8.8 5.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iona 5.2 2.0 5.2 9.3 14.8 21.6 28.0 12.0 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 3.1 24.0 21.1 17.4 14.9 12.2 7.1 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 4.0 9.3 19.9 22.8 22.7 13.9 4.3 0.6 0.0
Sacred Heart 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.5 11.4 25.4 24.1 18.0 10.9 2.6 0.3 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.9 15.4 28.2 23.9 12.7 6.2 2.0 0.3 0.0
Manhattan 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.2 9.2 15.8 23.6 26.6 14.8 5.0 0.7
Canisius 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.4 10.9 19.6 34.5 21.1 5.5
Niagara 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.1 11.8 26.1 36.9 17.4
Rider 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 11.9 27.7 55.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.5 13.4 22.6 27.9 21.1 7.4
Siena 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 8.3 16.0 22.9 23.3 16.8 7.5 1.5
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 19 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 6.6 14.7 24.8 27.3 18.9 5.3
Merrimack 15 - 5 19 - 12 0.1 0.4 2.4 7.0 15.0 23.2 24.3 17.6 8.3 1.7
Iona 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.4 15.0 23.1 25.6 18.6 7.5 1.4
St. Peter's 14 - 6 16 - 11 0.0 0.7 2.9 7.6 15.3 21.6 23.2 17.0 8.6 2.7 0.5
Fairfield 9 - 11 16 - 14 1.3 6.4 14.7 22.7 23.5 17.6 9.4 3.5 0.8 0.1
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.4 3.3 10.9 20.5 25.3 21.6 12.5 4.5 1.1 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.6 6.9 16.2 23.8 24.6 16.8 7.4 2.3 0.2
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 19 1.4 7.2 16.7 23.7 23.8 16.4 7.7 2.6 0.5 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 10 - 20 3.5 12.4 22.3 24.6 19.1 11.1 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 3.2 12.4 21.8 25.1 19.5 11.5 4.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Rider 4 - 16 4 - 24 4.1 15.3 26.1 25.8 17.1 8.2 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 24.4% 9.9 9.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Siena 23.6% 11.2 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 19.7% 6.6 7.7 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 48.5% 29.0 13.4 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Iona 2.0% 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 24.0% 11.2 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Fairfield 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan
Canisius
Niagara
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.5 3.3 9.4 9.4 1.7 75.6 0.0%
Siena 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.2 9.6 2.4 80.4 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.3 2.4 7.0 7.2 0.7 82.3 0.0%
Merrimack 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.4 7.7 1.7 86.6 0.0%
Iona 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 1.8 92.5 0.0%
St. Peter's 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.3 3.1 90.0 0.0%
Fairfield 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 97.4 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.1 97.7 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 98.1 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.3% 1.0 2.8 97.3
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 24.4% 0.2% 24.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 19.6% 0.3% 19.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.7% 0.1% 17.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 13.4% 0.2% 13.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 7.5% 0.3% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 10.0% 0.7% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.6% 0.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.3% 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%