Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#273
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#197
Pace62.7#338
Improvement+0.5#153

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#270
First Shot-1.0#201
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#338
Layup/Dunks-4.3#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows+2.1#74
Improvement+0.5#125

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#240
First Shot+2.6#92
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#360
Layups/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#83
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.9% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 38.5% 56.8% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 68.1% 57.6%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.6% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.0% 1.3%
First Four1.1% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round3.3% 4.5% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 413 - 615 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 158 South Dakota St. L 66-75 28%     0 - 1 -8.9 -5.7 -3.2
  Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -20.6 -7.9 -14.1
  Tue, Nov 11 199 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 27%     0 - 3 -13.6 -13.2 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 288 @Boston University W 91-79 43%     1 - 3 +8.0 +20.6 -11.5
  Wed, Nov 19 336 Maine W 72-65 77%     2 - 3 -6.8 +6.3 -12.2
  Fri, Nov 21 13 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.1 -13.6 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 28 253 @Penn L 65-77 36%     2 - 5 -14.2 -8.3 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 115 Hofstra L 58-78 19%     2 - 6 -16.7 -10.4 -7.2
  Sun, Nov 30 238 La Salle W 66-60 44%     3 - 6 +1.7 -0.3 +2.7
  Thu, Dec 4 347 Rider W 68-66 81%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -13.0 -0.8 -11.9
  Sun, Dec 7 305 Fairfield W 74-63 69%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +0.0 +2.6 -1.6
  Wed, Dec 10 255 @Princeton W 59-56 36%     6 - 6 +0.7 -0.6 +1.9
  Sun, Dec 14 185 @Vermont L 65-72 25%    
  Mon, Dec 29 254 @Sacred Heart L 70-74 36%    
  Fri, Jan 2 296 Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 321 Manhattan W 76-69 73%    
  Fri, Jan 9 164 @Siena L 61-70 21%    
  Sun, Jan 11 292 @St. Peter's L 63-65 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 168 Quinnipiac L 70-72 42%    
  Mon, Jan 19 155 @Marist L 59-68 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 170 @Iona L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 292 St. Peter's W 66-62 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 254 Sacred Heart W 73-71 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 296 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 347 @Rider W 65-62 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 155 Marist L 62-65 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 168 @Quinnipiac L 67-75 23%    
  Fri, Feb 20 164 Siena L 64-67 41%    
  Sun, Feb 22 170 Iona L 71-73 43%    
  Fri, Feb 27 339 @Canisius W 65-63 58%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Niagara W 67-63 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 7.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.9 1.4 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.9 5.3 1.4 0.1 14.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 4.9 1.5 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.6 1.4 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.7 7.5 10.7 13.8 14.3 14.1 12.0 8.6 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 57.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.4% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 28.3% 28.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 22.9% 22.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.5% 18.7% 18.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-5 3.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.7
14-6 5.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.1
13-7 8.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.1
12-8 12.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.3
11-9 14.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.1 0.4 13.6
10-10 14.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 14.0
9-11 13.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.6
8-12 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
7-13 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 96.1 0.0%