Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#353
Expected Predictive Rating-14.8#347
Pace63.3#326
Improvement-4.7#359

Offense
Total Offense-8.0#354
First Shot-3.2#267
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#359
Layup/Dunks+0.4#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#273
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement-1.8#308

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#334
First Shot-3.6#300
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#286
Layups/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#343
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-2.9#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.9% 6.7% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.1% 29.4% 43.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 137 @Duquesne L 63-83 6%     0 - 1 -15.4 -9.1 -6.1
  Sat, Nov 8 356 @Binghamton W 67-59 42%     1 - 1 -3.2 -5.1 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 10 348 Delaware St. W 68-57 57%     2 - 1 -4.1 +2.6 -4.7
  Mon, Nov 17 307 @Le Moyne L 68-74 23%     2 - 2 -11.3 -7.8 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42-100 0.2%    2 - 3 -32.4 -14.3 -22.8
  Sat, Nov 22 299 Howard L 70-80 30%     2 - 4 -17.6 -9.9 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 29 298 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 40%     2 - 5 -14.5 -7.4 -7.4
  Fri, Dec 5 164 @Siena L 54-83 8%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -26.3 -12.3 -16.0
  Sun, Dec 7 292 @St. Peter's L 43-71 20%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -32.2 -23.6 -13.0
  Sat, Dec 13 359 @Morgan St. L 73-81 44%     2 - 8 -19.6 -3.3 -16.7
  Mon, Dec 15 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 56-83 1%    
  Fri, Jan 2 254 Sacred Heart L 69-74 32%    
  Sun, Jan 4 305 Fairfield L 68-70 42%    
  Fri, Jan 9 170 @Iona L 65-80 8%    
  Sun, Jan 11 321 @Manhattan L 69-76 27%    
  Wed, Jan 14 339 @Canisius L 61-66 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 296 Mount St. Mary's L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 305 @Fairfield L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 254 @Sacred Heart L 66-77 16%    
  Fri, Jan 30 164 Siena L 60-70 18%    
  Sun, Feb 1 155 Marist L 58-68 18%    
  Tue, Feb 3 339 Canisius W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 @Quinnipiac L 63-78 8%    
  Fri, Feb 13 321 Manhattan L 72-73 48%    
  Sun, Feb 15 170 Iona L 68-77 20%    
  Fri, Feb 20 296 @Mount St. Mary's L 63-72 22%    
  Sun, Feb 22 347 @Rider L 61-65 35%    
  Fri, Feb 27 168 Quinnipiac L 66-75 20%    
  Sun, Mar 1 273 Merrimack L 63-67 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.1 5.6 1.6 0.1 16.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.5 8.1 6.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 22.5 12th
13th 1.3 4.4 8.3 9.0 5.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 30.5 13th
Total 1.3 4.4 9.6 13.9 16.2 15.8 13.5 10.5 6.8 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
9-11 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-12 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
7-13 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-14 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-15 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
4-16 16.2% 16.2
3-17 13.9% 13.9
2-18 9.6% 9.6
1-19 4.4% 4.4
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%