Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -13.9 #350
Pace 59.7 #363
Improvement +1.4 #115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #339 D F+ C- F+ B-
Defense #321 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.02 #330 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #267 0.72 #236 -2.0 #280
Three Pointers 40% #205 0.92 #297 -2.5 #270
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #312 -4.5 #313
Freethrows 0.22 #357 71% #235 0.16 #354
Second Chance 22.3% #351 0.88 #347 0.20 #360
Turnovers 17.7% #260
Total Offense -7.1 #339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.19 #221 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #214 0.90 #352 -0.9 #248
Three Pointers 43% #125 1.15 #338 -3.8 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #326 -5.0 #324
Freethrows 0.30 #179 77% #348 0.23 #241
Second Chance 34.8% #321 1.07 #223 0.37 #304
Turnovers 14.9% #282
Total Defense -5.2 #321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #65 0.3% #193
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.4% #332 9.4% #333
Possession Length 20.2 #362 17.4 #189
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.21 #312
Improvement +0.7 #141 +0.7 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 16.3% 37.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0 - 1 -14 -8 D- F F -6 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 362 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 54% +0  1 - 1 -5 -5 F D C +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 357 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 68% +8  2 - 1 -6 +3 A F A- -8 C- F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 274 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 20% -4  2 - 2 -9 -4 C+ F D+ -5 F+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  2 - 3 -32 -14 F C F -22 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 276 Howard L 70 - 80 29% +4  2 - 4 -16 -8 D+ C+ F -8 D+ C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 289 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 43% -6  2 - 5 -14 -9 D F B- -6 B+ D- D+
 Fri, Dec 5 173 @Siena L 54 - 83 10% -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -27 -14 F F A+ -15 F D+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 228 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 14% -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -29 -21 F F F -12 D F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 356 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  2 - 8 -19 -2 D D B- -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  2 - 9 -13 -4 D- D+ B- -12 F B- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 277 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 40% +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 -3 B F C- -3 A- F+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 271 Fairfield L 75 - 83 38% -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 +8 A F+ C -26 F F+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 227 @Iona L 53 - 71 14% -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -10 F F A- -11 D+ F+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 327 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 31% +1  3 - 12 1 - 5 -16 +3 B+ F C- -21 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 341 @Canisius W 59 - 54 36% +3  4 - 12 2 - 5 -4 -3 D+ F D- +0 B C C+
 Mon, Jan 19 286 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 42% +3  4 - 13 2 - 6 -20 -9 F A+ F -13 F C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 22 271 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 20% -3  4 - 14 2 - 7 -4 -10 D+ F F+ +6 C C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 21% +5  4 - 15 2 - 8 -5 -3 B B F -2 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 173 Siena L 61 - 69 21%
 Sun, Feb 1 160 Marist L 57 - 66 19%
 Tue, Feb 3 341 Canisius W 63 - 61 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 178 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 77 10%
 Fri, Feb 13 327 Manhattan W 71 - 70 54%
 Sun, Feb 15 227 Iona L 66 - 71 30%
 Fri, Feb 20 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 70 23%
 Sun, Feb 22 352 @Rider L 63 - 65 43%
 Fri, Feb 27 178 Quinnipiac L 66 - 74 23%
 Sun, Mar 1 205 Merrimack L 61 - 67 27%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 -7 D F+ C- -5 D D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.3 5.1 9th
10th 0.6 4.5 5.5 1.2 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 9.9 10.8 3.3 0.2 26.1 11th
12th 0.2 4.6 14.5 13.4 3.9 0.3 0.0 36.9 12th
13th 2.9 7.7 5.5 1.2 0.1 17.4 13th
Total 3.2 12.4 21.8 25.1 19.5 11.5 4.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
8-12 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.7
7-13 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-14 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.5
5-15 25.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.1
4-16 21.8% 21.8
3-17 12.4% 12.4
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%