Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.8 333
Results Rating -13.4 345
Consistency 0.13 50
Pace 58.8 365
Improvement +4.6 43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 321 C- F D- D- B
Defense D 323 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 D+ 54% 286 +0.9 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 230 C 39% 156 -1.9 275
Three Pointers 41% 190 C 34% 178 -0.1 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 68 C- -1.7 238
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 202
Second Chance F+ 21.6% 355 F+ 0.88 350 F 0.19 360
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 274
Other Turnovers D- 8.9% 342
Turnovers D- 19.3% 329
Freethrows F+ 0.24 353 C 72% 186 D- 0.17 352
Total Offense D -6.1 321

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 100 C- 11.5% 214
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 334 D+ 6.7% 295
Three Pointers B- 88% 95 B 0.4% 54
Total C+ 59% 106 C- 6.2% 258


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 236 D 62% 303 +0.8 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 193 D 42% 306 +0.5 228
Three Pointers 43% 115 D+ 36% 286 +2.4 302
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 158 D +3.6 322
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 306
Second Chance D 33.9% 314 C- 1.07 254 D 0.36 307
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 280
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 205
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 272
Freethrows C 0.30 173 F 77% 360 C- 0.23 233
Total Defense D -5.7 323

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 111 D+ 8.1% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 294 C- 3.7% 252
Three Pointers D+ 86% 266 C+ 1.1% 123
Total C 56% 197 D+ 4.2% 295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 362 17.1 150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 339 0.19 253
Consistency 0.11 102 0.11 97
Improvement +3.8 29 +0.7 152

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 333 333 333
Results Rating Rank 345 345 345
Conference Record 5 - 15 5 - 15 5 - 15
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 47 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 121 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 6% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -10 F+ F F D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 358 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 57% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F+ -9 F D C- B +4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 360 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 81% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -10 C- -1 A F B D- -8 C- F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 300 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 27% -4  7% 2 - 2 D- -12 D -6 C+ F D D -6 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 1 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -29 F -15 F C F F -18 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 193 Howard L 70 - 80 17% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -12 F+ -8 C- B F C- -3 C C C
 Sat, Nov 29 220 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 29% -6  5% 2 - 5 D -10 F+ -8 D+ F+ B C- -2 A- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 194 @Siena L 54 - 83 12% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -17 F F A F -13 F F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 239 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 17% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -30 F -25 F F F F+ -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 350 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 48% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D+ D+ C+ F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -10 F B- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 289 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 45% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 258 Fairfield L 75 - 83 37% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -16 B +7 A+ F C+ F -25 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 254 @Iona L 53 - 71 18% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A F+ -9 D D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 329 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 36% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -17 C -0 A- F D+ F -18 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 338 @Canisius W 59 - 54 41% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D -6 D+ F D B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 274 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 41% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -19 F+ -10 F A+ F F -11 D B F
 Thu, Jan 22 258 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 19% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -3 F -11 C- F D- A- +8 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 24% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 194 Siena L 79 - 82 25% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -8 A- +10 A+ C+ C F -19 F D- C-
 Sun, Feb 1 205 Marist L 46 - 58 26% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -17 F -20 F F F C+ +1 B+ C+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 338 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 C- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 14% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -1 F+ -8 D+ D F A- +7 B A+ A-
 Fri, Feb 13 329 Manhattan L 69 - 76 59% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -21 F+ -8 B F D F -13 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 254 Iona W 70 - 68 36% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +9 A+ F B+ F -15 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 274 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 21% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -16 F -11 F+ F+ F D -6 D F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 357 @Rider L 62 - 67 53% +0  54% 6 - 21 4 - 14 F+ -18 F -14 B- F F D+ -4 D- B- C
 Fri, Feb 27 216 Quinnipiac W 78 - 76 OT 29% -1  19% 7 - 21 5 - 14 C- -4 C+ +3 B- B- B D- -7 C D- F
 Sun, Mar 1 175 Merrimack L 66 - 73 23% -4  23% 7 - 22 5 - 15 D -11 C +1 B A- F F -13 F F B
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -6 F+ C- B D -6 C C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C C C- 43% 34% 41% B C- F+ F+ F D- F+ C D- D D D D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D D C- D D+ C F C-
1.00 54% 39% 34% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.9 .19 19% .24 72% .17 1.17 62% 42% 36% +4 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 77% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F B- C+ F F 47% 23% 30% B- F+ F F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B F D+ A+ A+ D- A-
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D C- D C- C- C C- B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% F+ A+ F D- F F C- B+ C+
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D+ D+ A+ A 55% 7% 39% A A F F F B F+ F F D- A D B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- B- F F+ F B C+ B
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D F D F+ B+ D- D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A- F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B+ F C- B- C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F D- F F D+ F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B+ C- C- A+ B F A+ C- A+ C- A F C+ C+ 45% 12% 43% D C B- D C C F B F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F+ B F F F C- C+ D+ A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D F+ D F C+ F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A+ F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A F F F F D F F F 37% 23% 40% D F D+ F+ F+ D- B B+ B+
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D F D- F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D D- C+ F F D- B D- B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D D 50% 8% 42% B- D+ F A+ D+ C+ F B- F+ F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B+ F F C- F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B- C+ C- A C+
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C C+ A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ C- D C- C C A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A+ F F+ F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B A- A+ A+ A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D F F C+ F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D+ F F+ F F A F A- F F+ F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A D- D- C+ F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C F+ A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D D F B- D 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D F F D A- A- A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- F+ D F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F+ F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- F A F D- D+ 51% 9% 40% F+ D D- A+ B F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% A- C- F F F D- F B- F A- A F B B- 41% 20% 39% D+ C+ C- D+ D+ B A A+ A+
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B+ 51% 13% 36% B+ B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C- A+ B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena A- C- A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C D+ F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D- C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F D- F C+ C C- A+ B 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F C+ F D- F F
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F+ F F F F A- F D+ D F A+ C 40% 17% 44% F+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac F+ B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D D+ C+ F D F F+ D+ F+ A- A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ A- D F+ D-
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D- B 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ A A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F B+ B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D A F F+ 27% 22% 51% D+ F+ D F F+ F A+ B A+ D D+ A+ B- D+ 62% 12% 26% F D F F F C- C B+ C+
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18
Feb
22		 Rider F A F B+ B- 55% 11% 34% B- B- F F F F D- F F D+ F A+ F+ F 34% 43% 23% A- D- F+ A+ B- C F+ F F
0.96 71% 20% 40% +8 +2 1.23 16% 0.5 .08 28% .23 55% .13 1.03 69% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 36% 0.7 .24 17% .33 83% .28
Feb
27		 Quinnipiac C+ C+ A+ C- B- 41% 26% 33% D+ B- C+ B+ B- B F D- F D- C C+ B C+ 36% 18% 46% D+ C C+ F D- F F D+ F
1.14 59% 50% 33% +3 0 1.07 34% 1.2 .40 15% .20 67% .14 1.11 56% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.3 .39 10% .39 71% .28
Mar
1		 Merrimack C D B+ C 58% 0% 42% A+ B D- A+ A- F A A+ A+ F D+ A+ F F 43% 9% 48% D F F C- F B A- F B-
1.09 50% 38% -2 +4 1.05 35% 1.5 .52 26% .43 89% .38 1.20 60% 25% 41% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 18% .26 92% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 100.0% 100.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%