IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-3.8	#227
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.9	#184

Pace	73.8	#60
Improvement	-6.2	#364

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#280	C	D	C-	D-	C
Defense	#164	C+	D+	C-	B	D+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#260	1.10	#247	-2.6	#278
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#236	0.76	#170	-0.9	#228
Three Pointers	47%	#71	1.04	#160	+3.3	#76
1st FG Attempt			1.01	#185	-0.2	#182
Freethrows	0.25	#319	68%	#314	0.17	#338
Second Chance	23.1%	#345	1.05	#172	0.24	#331
Turnovers					17.1%	#225
Total Offense					-3.9	#280

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#90	1.19	#212	-2.6	#265
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#227	0.65	#28	+1.2	#104
Three Pointers	39%	#234	0.96	#101	+2.1	#110
1st FG Attempt			1.00	#144	+0.6	#158
Freethrows	0.27	#75	69%	#53	0.19	#62
Second Chance	33.6%	#304	1.05	#192	0.35	#270
Turnovers					15.7%	#218
Total Defense					+0.1	#164

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.3%	#171	1.0%	#257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-1.0%	#191	-3.2%	#121
Possession Length	17.2	#157	16.4	#44
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.16	#188	0.21	#304
Improvement	-5.9	#363	-0.3	#210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	8.2%	5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.9	15.2

.500 or above	99.6%	100.0%	98.9%
.500 or above in Conference	91.1%	95.9%	80.2%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.8%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	7.4%	8.1%	5.6%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 4	17 - 6	21 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	128 Hofstra	W	81 - 73	40%	+14	1 - 0		+7	+0	B-	D+	F	+6	C	B+	A-
Tue, Nov 11	354 @UMKC	W	105 - 91	75%	+9	2 - 0		+3	+9	A+	F+	F	-8	D	F	C+
Fri, Nov 14	198 Fordham	W	76 - 71	56%	-0	3 - 0		-0	+3	A	F	A	-3	A	F	D+
Tue, Nov 18	213 Princeton	W	89 - 69	59%	+18	4 - 0		+14	+6	A-	C-	C-	+6	A-	A+	C
Fri, Nov 21	62 Akron	L	75 - 96	12%	-18	4 - 1		-12	-4	D	C	F	-6	D	C	C
Sat, Nov 22	194 Oregon St.	W	91 - 84 2OT	44%	-5	5 - 1		+5	+0	C	D	C-	+3	C	A	C
Mon, Nov 24	243 Green Bay	L	75 - 80	53%	+0	5 - 2		-10	-1	D+	C	C+	-9	A	F	F
Mon, Dec 1	297 @Delaware	W	89 - 66	53%	+7	6 - 2		+18	+15	A+	F	C-	+3	C	C-	C-
Fri, Dec 5	178 Quinnipiac	L	68 - 89	52%	-7	6 - 3	0 - 1	-25	-9	F	C+	C	-16	D	F	C
Sun, Dec 7	277 @Sacred Heart	W	81 - 69	49%	+4	7 - 3	1 - 1	+8	+3	D	C-	C	+5	D-	B-	A+
Wed, Dec 10	344 Bryant	W	69 - 63	85%	+5	8 - 3		-9	-6	D	D	B-	-3	F	B-	A+
Sat, Dec 13	21 @St. John's	L	64 - 91	2%	-8	8 - 4		-7	-4	D-	D+	A-	-1	F	C+	A+
Sat, Dec 20	199 @Vermont	W	83 - 78	34%	+0	9 - 4		+5	+11	C+	A-	A-	-6	C+	C	F
Mon, Dec 29	286 @Mount St. Mary's	L	59 - 66	52%	+2	9 - 5	1 - 2	-11	-17	F	D+	F	+6	C+	B+	C+
Fri, Jan 2	173 Siena	W	75 - 72	51%	+4	10 - 5	2 - 2	-1	-1	A+	F	F	+0	B-	B+	F+
Sun, Jan 4	160 @Marist	L	38 - 83	26%	-21	10 - 6	2 - 3	-42	-28	F	F	F	-13	C+	F	F
Fri, Jan 9	349 Niagara	W	71 - 53	86%	+16	11 - 6	3 - 3	+3	+2	C-	D+	C	+3	B+	B-	F
Sun, Jan 11	341 Canisius	W	74 - 48	85%	+8	12 - 6	4 - 3	+11	+7	A+	C+	F	+8	A+	D-	F
Wed, Jan 14	352 @Rider	L	68 - 72	73%	-7	12 - 7	4 - 4	-14	+2	C-	F+	A+	-17	F	F	D+
Mon, Jan 19	228 @St. Peter's	L	63 - 77	39%	-3	12 - 8	4 - 5	-15	-6	F	D-	A+	-9	F	B+	C+
Thu, Jan 22	205 Merrimack	W	61 - 60	58%	+1	13 - 8	5 - 5	-5	-4	D+	F	C+	-1	C	F	A+
Sat, Jan 24	327 Manhattan	W	66 - 57	81%	+8	14 - 8	6 - 5	-4	-10	D-	F	D	+7	A+	C	C+
Fri, Jan 30	271 Fairfield	W	78 - 73	70%
Thu, Feb 5	173 @Siena	L	68 - 74	29%
Sat, Feb 7	286 Mount St. Mary's	W	76 - 70	73%
Fri, Feb 13	341 @Canisius	W	71 - 66	67%
Sun, Feb 15	349 @Niagara	W	71 - 66	70%
Fri, Feb 20	228 St. Peter's	W	71 - 68	61%
Sun, Feb 22	205 @Merrimack	L	68 - 72	36%
Fri, Feb 27	352 Rider	W	76 - 64	88%
Sun, Mar 1	327 @Manhattan	W	79 - 76	62%
Totals						20 - 11	12 - 8	-4	-4	C	D	C-	+0	C+	D+	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st														0.1	1.0	0.9						2.0	1st
2nd													0.0	1.4	3.4	0.4						5.2	2nd
3rd												0.0	1.0	5.8	2.4	0.0						9.3	3rd
4th												0.7	5.9	7.5	0.6	0.0						14.8	4th
5th											0.5	5.7	12.0	3.3	0.0							21.6	5th
6th										0.4	6.6	14.0	6.5	0.4								28.0	6th
7th									0.2	2.5	6.6	2.6	0.2									12.0	7th
8th								0.0	0.7	2.6	1.3	0.0										4.7	8th
9th								0.1	0.8	0.8	0.0											1.7	9th
10th							0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1												0.5	10th
11th							0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.1	11th
12th							0.0															0.0	12th
13th																							13th

Total							0.0	0.4	2.0	6.4	15.0	23.1	25.6	18.6	7.5	1.4							Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	66.4%	0.9	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
14-6	14.0%	1.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	1.4%	20.1%	20.1%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.1
14-6	7.5%	13.3%	13.3%		14.4												0.0	0.0	0.5	0.4	0.0	6.5
13-7	18.6%	10.9%	10.9%		14.9													0.0	0.4	1.4	0.2	16.6
12-8	25.6%	8.7%	8.7%		15.2													0.0	0.2	1.4	0.6	23.4
11-9	23.1%	5.2%	5.2%		15.4														0.1	0.7	0.5	21.9
10-10	15.0%	3.8%	3.8%		15.6														0.0	0.2	0.3	14.4
9-11	6.4%	2.3%	2.3%		15.7															0.0	0.1	6.3
8-12	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	2.0
7-13	0.4%	2.6%	2.6%		16.0																0.0	0.4
6-14	0.0%																					0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	15.0																	92.5	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	12	13	14	15
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	13.6	3.6	38.2	50.9	7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%