Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#305
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#250
Pace69.4#190
Improvement-4.2#354

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#284
First Shot-5.1#313
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#128
Layup/Dunks-5.1#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#196
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement-0.8#247

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#297
First Shot-4.6#329
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks-6.2#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows-2.6#325
Improvement-3.4#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 33.9% 47.1% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 28.6% 34.4% 24.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 6.0% 10.0%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 413 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 104 @Penn St. L 68-76 9%     0 - 1 -0.8 -3.2 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 8 352 @NJIT W 74-53 58%     1 - 1 +11.1 -5.2 +14.9
  Mon, Nov 10 56 @Seton Hall L 59-82 4%     1 - 2 -10.4 -4.1 -6.9
  Fri, Nov 14 340 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 73%     2 - 2 -12.3 -11.4 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 16 338 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 72%     3 - 2 -11.1 +2.1 -13.2
  Sat, Nov 22 307 @Le Moyne W 97-83 40%     4 - 2 +8.7 +17.4 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 26 138 Columbia L 77-106 27%     4 - 3 -30.5 +2.2 -32.2
  Sun, Nov 30 335 New Hampshire W 72-68 71%     5 - 3 -9.7 +0.3 -9.7
  Fri, Dec 5 321 @Manhattan L 66-70 44%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -10.5 -15.1 +4.7
  Sun, Dec 7 273 @Merrimack L 63-74 31%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -13.9 -4.6 -10.2
  Sun, Dec 14 206 Monmouth L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Dec 18 241 @Central Connecticut St. L 66-72 27%    
  Mon, Dec 29 292 St. Peter's W 69-67 59%    
  Fri, Jan 2 339 @Canisius W 68-67 51%    
  Sun, Jan 4 353 @Niagara W 70-68 58%    
  Fri, Jan 9 347 Rider W 71-64 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 321 Manhattan W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 155 @Marist L 62-73 16%    
  Mon, Jan 19 164 @Siena L 64-75 16%    
  Thu, Jan 22 353 Niagara W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 339 Canisius W 70-64 71%    
  Fri, Jan 30 170 @Iona L 72-82 18%    
  Sun, Feb 1 168 Quinnipiac L 74-78 36%    
  Thu, Feb 5 254 @Sacred Heart L 73-79 30%    
  Sat, Feb 7 155 Marist L 65-70 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 292 @St. Peter's L 66-70 37%    
  Fri, Feb 20 254 Sacred Heart W 77-76 51%    
  Sun, Feb 22 168 @Quinnipiac L 71-81 18%    
  Fri, Feb 27 164 Siena L 67-72 34%    
  Sun, Mar 1 296 Mount St. Mary's W 73-71 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.9 4.3 1.0 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.2 1.3 0.1 13.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.6 1.7 0.1 14.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.5 5.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.9 1.2 0.1 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.2 11.7 14.2 15.0 13.7 11.5 8.0 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 32.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 16.4% 16.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 1.1% 11.3% 11.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-8 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.7
11-9 8.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.7
10-10 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.3
9-11 13.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.6
8-12 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.9
7-13 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.1
6-14 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
5-15 8.2% 8.2
4-16 5.0% 5.0
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.5 0.0%