Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #235
Pace 68.1 #206
Improvement -0.6 #215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 D C B- D- C-
Defense #307 D C+ D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #208 1.01 #332 -3.4 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #118 0.77 #147 +1.2 #108
Three Pointers 39% #216 0.95 #263 -2.1 #252
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #305 -4.3 #305
Freethrows 0.24 #329 70% #241 0.17 #326
Second Chance 33.0% #111 0.97 #273 0.32 #169
Turnovers 15.2% #102
Total Offense -1.6 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #4 1.20 #242 -6.2 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.74 #140 +2.1 #38
Three Pointers 37% #283 1.12 #306 +0.0 #176
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #305 -4.1 #308
Freethrows 0.28 #128 74% #264 0.21 #148
Second Chance 30.3% #170 1.01 #127 0.31 #146
Turnovers 14.5% #295
Total Defense -4.7 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 2.7% #359
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.6% #304 5.1% #272
Possession Length 17.3 #169 17.4 #184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #267 0.17 #174
Improvement +1.2 #122 -1.8 #287

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.5% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 67.4% 85.3% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 31.4% 51.7% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 415 - 617 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 112 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 12% +2  0 - 1 -2 -3 F+ F A+ +1 B- A- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 338 @NJIT W 74 - 53 58% +6  1 - 1 +13 -6 F B- F +17 A- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 57 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  1 - 2 -10 -2 C D D+ -9 B+ D F
 Fri, Nov 14 334 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 77% +2  2 - 2 -12 -9 F D+ A- -3 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 323 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 74% +4  3 - 2 -10 +3 D- B+ A -13 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 274 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 39% +12  4 - 2 +11 +21 A B- A -10 C F B
 Wed, Nov 26 168 Columbia L 77 - 106 40% -18  4 - 3 -33 +1 D+ C D+ -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 319 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 73% +0  5 - 3 -9 +1 C C D+ -9 C B+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 327 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 54% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -11 -14 F F F +3 C B+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 205 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 27% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -11 -3 C F D+ -9 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 185 Monmouth W 73 - 65 45% +0  6 - 5 +3 +8 C+ B+ B -4 D+ B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 296 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 44% +14  7 - 5 +9 +12 B+ C+ C- -2 A F F+
 Mon, Dec 29 228 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 52% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -11 -5 F C+ B- -6 C A- D
 Fri, Jan 2 341 @Canisius L 81 - 85 59% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -13 +11 D B- B -23 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 349 @Niagara W 83 - 75 62% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -1 +20 C+ B- A+ -20 F C D
 Fri, Jan 9 352 Rider W 68 - 62 83% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -3 F A+ B+ -6 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 327 Manhattan W 98 - 62 75% +20  10 - 7 3 - 4 +23 +14 A D+ B- +8 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Marist L 67 - 82 19% -13  10 - 8 3 - 5 -12 +5 F B+ A- -18 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 173 @Siena L 77 - 85 21% -8  10 - 9 3 - 6 -6 +12 C+ A+ B -19 F B B+
 Thu, Jan 22 349 Niagara W 62 - 61 80% +3  11 - 9 4 - 6 -14 -13 F C- F+ -1 D A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 341 Canisius W 61 - 55 79% +7  12 - 9 5 - 6 -9 -8 D D+ F -0 C+ C- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 227 @Iona L 73 - 78 30%
 Sun, Feb 1 178 Quinnipiac L 76 - 78 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 277 @Sacred Heart L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 160 Marist L 67 - 70 38%
 Sun, Feb 15 228 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 31%
 Fri, Feb 20 277 Sacred Heart W 80 - 77 62%
 Sun, Feb 22 178 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 81 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 173 Siena L 71 - 73 41%
 Sun, Mar 1 286 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 71 65%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 11 -6 -2 D C B- -5 D C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 0.2 1.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 1.4 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.4 3.8 4.5 0.6 9.3 6th
7th 0.7 7.0 10.0 2.2 0.0 19.9 7th
8th 0.6 7.0 11.8 3.3 0.1 22.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 6.0 11.6 4.2 0.2 22.7 9th
10th 0.3 3.4 6.8 3.3 0.2 13.9 10th
11th 0.7 2.1 1.4 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 1.3 6.4 14.7 22.7 23.5 17.6 9.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 42.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-8 3.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.2
11-9 9.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.2 0.3 8.9
10-10 17.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 17.0
9-11 23.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 23.0
8-12 22.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 22.4
7-13 14.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.6
6-14 6.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.7 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%