Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #160
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #192
Pace 65.8 #266
Improvement -2.8 #306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 D+ C- C- D D
Defense #47 B C+ B D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.13 #210 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.82 #88 +3.2 #46
Three Pointers 38% #241 0.85 #347 -4.7 #324
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #295 -4.0 #295
Freethrows 0.22 #354 79% #8 0.18 #318
Second Chance 25.4% #315 1.15 #57 0.29 #238
Turnovers 17.4% #248
Total Offense -5.5 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.16 #186 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #32 0.69 #76 -1.6 #299
Three Pointers 35% #334 0.86 #22 +5.9 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #51 +4.4 #52
Freethrows 0.36 #321 72% #174 0.26 #319
Second Chance 27.8% #85 1.08 #229 0.30 #123
Turnovers 18.7% #58
Total Defense +5.5 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #308 -1.7% #57
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #277 -7.2% #59
Possession Length 17.9 #229 17.3 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #266 0.11 #27
Improvement +0.0 #182 -2.8 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 25.3% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 24.4% 28.4% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round24.3% 25.2% 20.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 418 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 79 @Xavier L 62 - 66 16% +1  0 - 1 +6 -3 +10
 Sun, Nov 9 235 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 55% +8  1 - 1 +18 -1 C C- F +18 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 179 Harvard L 54 - 56 66% -1  1 - 2 -6 -15 F+ F F +8 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 339 Army W 76 - 65 90% +4  2 - 2 -3 -3 D- C+ C -0 C- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 303 Lehigh W 78 - 55 85% +13  3 - 2 +12 +3 B- D- B+ +9 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 286 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 83% +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -2 -13 D+ C F +11 A B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 327 Manhattan W 80 - 68 89% +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 -1 -7 F D+ C +5 C A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 344 @Bryant W 82 - 74 80% +6  6 - 2 -1 +8 A- D+ D- -9 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 113 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 27% -8  6 - 3 -5 +10 B- A+ C -15 F D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 236 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 76% +13  7 - 3 +12 -3 D- C+ B+ +15 A+ A B-
 Mon, Dec 29 178 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 44% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -4 -11 F C F +7 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 228 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 53% -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -11 F F C -0 A F+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 227 Iona W 83 - 38 74% +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +38 +8 D+ A A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 277 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 64% -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 +0 +7 C- A C -6 D F+ B
 Sun, Jan 11 352 @Rider W 71 - 49 83% +12  10 - 5 5 - 2 +12 -2 C F C- +15 B+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 271 Fairfield W 82 - 67 81% +13  11 - 5 6 - 2 +6 +8 B- A+ F -1 A D- C
 Mon, Jan 19 205 Merrimack L 55 - 68 71% -6  11 - 6 6 - 3 -19 -15 F D- D+ -5 D A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 173 @Siena L 50 - 69 42% -4  11 - 7 6 - 4 -17 -14 F+ F B+ -6 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 178 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 66% +8  12 - 7 7 - 4 +3 +1 C+ D C- +2 B- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 341 @Canisius W 66 - 57 79%
 Sun, Feb 1 349 @Niagara W 66 - 57 81%
 Thu, Feb 5 352 Rider W 71 - 55 94%
 Sat, Feb 7 271 @Fairfield W 70 - 67 62%
 Thu, Feb 12 205 @Merrimack L 62 - 63 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 173 Siena W 66 - 62 65%
 Fri, Feb 20 327 @Manhattan W 73 - 66 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 277 Sacred Heart W 76 - 66 82%
 Sun, Mar 1 228 St. Peter's W 66 - 59 74%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 +0 -5 D+ C- C- +5 B C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 4.1 13.0 7.1 24.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 12.7 7.3 0.3 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 9.3 9.4 0.8 0.0 20.5 3rd
4th 0.5 5.1 8.5 1.6 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.9 2.0 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.5 13.4 22.6 27.9 21.1 7.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.5% 7.1    5.3 1.8 0.1
15-5 61.7% 13.0    4.2 6.1 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 14.8% 4.1    0.3 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.4% 24.4 9.9 9.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.4% 37.1% 37.1% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.0 4.6
15-5 21.1% 31.8% 31.8% 14.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 1.5 0.0 14.4
14-6 27.9% 26.3% 26.3% 14.4 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.3 0.2 20.6
13-7 22.6% 20.3% 20.3% 14.8 0.1 1.1 2.9 0.5 18.0
12-8 13.4% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 11.2
11-9 5.5% 12.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 4.8
10-10 1.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-11 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 14.3 75.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 13.1 0.2 16.6 53.9 28.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%