Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#155
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#157
Pace67.7#231
Improvement-2.1#310

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#304
First Shot-5.3#322
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks-1.8#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#271
Freethrows-3.1#330
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+2.9#82
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#35
Layups/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#14
Freethrows-2.8#332
Improvement-2.5#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 27.5% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 97.4% 99.3% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.1% 96.2%
Conference Champion 34.2% 40.2% 31.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round23.9% 27.3% 22.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 418 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 77 @Xavier L 62-66 16%     0 - 1 +6.6 -2.8 +9.3
  Sun, Nov 9 247 @Dartmouth W 75-56 58%     1 - 1 +17.1 -0.9 +17.4
  Sun, Nov 16 200 Harvard L 54-56 71%     1 - 2 -7.6 -15.2 +7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 332 Army W 76-65 89%     2 - 2 -2.5 +0.8 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 309 Lehigh W 78-55 86%     3 - 2 +11.7 +2.4 +10.0
  Fri, Dec 5 296 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 84%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -2.4 -14.7 +12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 321 Manhattan W 80-68 88%     5 - 2 2 - 0 -0.5 -7.7 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 297 @Bryant W 82-74 67%     6 - 2 +3.6 +9.9 -6.2
  Tue, Dec 16 131 @Georgia Tech L 64-69 33%    
  Sun, Dec 21 197 Stony Brook W 68-62 70%    
  Mon, Dec 29 168 @Quinnipiac L 69-71 43%    
  Fri, Jan 2 292 @St. Peter's W 65-61 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 170 Iona W 73-69 65%    
  Fri, Jan 9 254 @Sacred Heart W 72-70 59%    
  Sun, Jan 11 347 @Rider W 66-57 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 305 Fairfield W 73-62 84%    
  Mon, Jan 19 273 Merrimack W 68-59 80%    
  Thu, Jan 22 164 @Siena L 63-66 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 168 Quinnipiac W 72-68 64%    
  Fri, Jan 30 339 @Canisius W 66-58 77%    
  Sun, Feb 1 353 @Niagara W 68-58 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 347 Rider W 69-54 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 305 @Fairfield W 70-65 68%    
  Thu, Feb 12 273 @Merrimack W 65-62 61%    
  Sun, Feb 15 164 Siena W 66-63 62%    
  Fri, Feb 20 321 @Manhattan W 75-68 72%    
  Sun, Feb 22 254 Sacred Heart W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 292 St. Peter's W 68-58 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.9 7.8 9.7 7.6 3.5 0.8 34.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.7 7.6 5.5 1.8 0.2 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.4 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.7 8.6 11.6 14.2 15.4 14.3 11.5 7.8 3.5 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.0
18-2 97.5% 7.6    6.9 0.7 0.0
17-3 83.9% 9.7    7.0 2.4 0.2
16-4 54.8% 7.8    4.0 3.1 0.7 0.0
15-5 25.4% 3.9    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.2% 34.2 23.4 8.4 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 54.3% 54.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
19-1 3.5% 47.5% 47.5% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8
18-2 7.8% 40.3% 40.3% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 4.7
17-3 11.5% 35.7% 35.7% 13.8 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 7.4
16-4 14.3% 29.5% 29.5% 14.2 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.3 0.1 10.1
15-5 15.4% 26.2% 26.2% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.2 11.4
14-6 14.2% 20.1% 20.1% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.3 11.3
13-7 11.6% 16.0% 16.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 9.7
12-8 8.6% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 7.6
11-9 5.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.2
10-10 3.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.2
9-11 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.9
8-12 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 8.4 7.5 2.1 75.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 1.7 53.3 40.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%