Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
180 Colgate 31.4%   16   4 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -1.4      +0.1 163 -1.5 222 67.4 241 -0.4 175 0.0 1
204 Navy 22.4%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.8      -3.0 249 +0.2 159 67.4 243 -3.0 212 0.0 1
248 American 13.5%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4.9      -3.3 254 -1.6 225 72.5 102 -2.7 209 0.0 1
288 Boston University 7.4%   3 - 8 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -7.0      +0.2 162 -7.2 353 60.4 360 -8.6 296 0.0 1
289 Holy Cross 7.7%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -7.0      -3.0 250 -3.9 306 65.1 293 -3.3 218 0.0 1
302 Bucknell 5.5%   3 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 20 8 - 10 -7.9      -5.6 322 -2.3 250 68.5 212 -8.6 298 0.0 1
309 Lehigh 4.6%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8.3      -4.5 295 -3.8 300 67.5 239 -11.8 323 0.0 1
320 Lafayette 3.6%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -9.4      -6.2 332 -3.2 281 68.5 213 -13.5 339 0.0 1
332 Army 2.1%   3 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10.5      -5.8 327 -4.7 329 68.9 203 -7.8 284 0.0 1
338 Loyola Maryland 1.7%   2 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11.1      -4.0 272 -7.1 351 69.5 186 -16.6 354 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 180 Colgate 77 113 St. Bonaventure 85   
Wed, Dec 10 288 Boston University 59 336 Maine 69   
Fri, Dec 12 332 Army 63 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. 60   
Sat, Dec 13 288 Boston University 64 247 Dartmouth 77   
Sat, Dec 13 338 Loyola Maryland 73 296 Mount St. Mary's 81   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 247 Dartmouth 73 289 Holy Cross 74 53%   
Thu, Dec 18 248 American 66 48 Virginia Commonwealth 84 95%   
Thu, Dec 18 195 Charlotte 73 320 Lafayette 63 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.3 46.2 22.6 12.5 7.4 4.7 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2
Navy 2.9 31.6 23.8 15.5 10.2 7.2 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5
American 3.9 16.6 17.6 16.2 13.7 10.8 8.7 6.6 4.7 3.4 1.8
Boston University 5.1 7.1 10.8 13.4 13.6 13.0 11.9 10.5 8.6 6.8 4.2
Holy Cross 5.1 7.7 10.8 12.5 13.7 12.7 11.8 10.6 8.6 6.9 4.6
Bucknell 5.6 5.0 8.2 10.8 12.4 12.7 13.0 11.9 10.8 9.0 6.2
Lehigh 5.8 4.0 7.2 10.0 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.3 11.6 10.2 8.3
Lafayette 6.5 2.4 4.9 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.1 13.4 13.8 13.9 12.0
Army 7.1 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.1 8.9 11.0 12.8 15.1 17.0 18.6
Loyola Maryland 7.4 1.1 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.9 10.1 12.1 15.4 18.6 22.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.8 11.1 13.7 15.6 15.1 12.6 8.1 4.0 1.0
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.0 8.2 10.6 13.6 15.2 14.1 11.8 8.5 4.8 1.8 0.3
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 9.5 12.2 13.3 13.7 12.5 10.1 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 5.3 8.1 11.1 13.3 14.0 13.3 11.7 8.5 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.3 8.3 10.7 13.1 14.1 13.2 10.8 8.5 5.5 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.0 7.0 10.1 12.7 14.1 14.2 12.1 9.4 6.4 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.1 8.3 10.9 12.9 14.0 13.3 11.6 8.6 5.5 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.1 10.6 13.3 14.3 13.7 11.8 8.9 6.3 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Army 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.5 10.1 13.0 14.4 14.2 12.5 9.6 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 6 - 12 0.3 1.8 4.3 7.5 11.6 13.9 15.2 13.5 11.2 8.4 5.7 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 46.2% 34.3 9.6 2.0 0.3 0.0
Navy 31.6% 21.5 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
American 16.6% 10.2 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
Boston University 7.1% 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 7.7% 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Bucknell 5.0% 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 4.0% 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Army 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 31.4% 31.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.4 2.1 6.8 12.5 9.6 68.6 0.0%
Navy 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.4 11.7 77.6 0.0%
American 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 8.9 86.5 0.0%
Boston University 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.7 92.6 0.0%
Holy Cross 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 6.2 92.3 0.0%
Bucknell 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.2 94.5 0.0%
Lehigh 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.4 95.4 0.0%
Lafayette 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.5 96.4 0.0%
Army 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 31.4% 3.4% 29.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 22.4% 5.3% 20.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.5% 4.6% 11.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.4% 5.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 7.7% 4.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 5.5% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.6% 3.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.6% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 81.1% 0.8 18.9 81.1
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0