Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
183 Navy 32.3%   16   13 - 6 7 - 1 -1.7      -2.9 254 +1.2 129 66.0 261 -1.3 190 +2.1 1
209 Colgate 23.9%   10 - 9 6 - 2 -2.9      -0.5 178 -2.5 250 67.4 225 -2.3 210 -1.6 3
220 American 21.5%   11 - 8 6 - 2 -3.5      -2.6 240 -0.9 205 68.1 204 -1.0 186 -0.5 2
278 Boston University 7.2%   7 - 13 3 - 5 -6.7      +0.1 162 -6.8 348 61.1 354 -8.8 311 -10.4 6
303 Lehigh 5.1%   7 - 12 5 - 3 -8.3      -5.1 308 -3.2 277 67.6 221 -8.7 309 -5.4 4
316 Lafayette 2.4%   4 - 16 2 - 6 -9.3      -5.9 323 -3.4 282 67.7 218 -12.7 339 -12.7 10
322 Bucknell 2.3%   6 - 15 3 - 5 -10.0      -7.5 343 -2.5 251 67.9 214 -10.1 324 -11.5 8
323 Loyola Maryland 2.3%   5 - 14 3 - 5 -10.0      -3.9 278 -6.1 341 69.2 168 -13.4 348 -10.8 7
326 Holy Cross 2.1%   6 - 13 3 - 5 -10.2      -5.3 310 -4.9 315 64.4 299 -7.9 291 -9.3 5
339 Army 1.0%   6 - 13 2 - 6 -11.3      -3.2 264 -8.2 359 67.5 222 -9.6 319 -12.2 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 278 Boston University 79 209 Colgate 80   
Sat, Jan 24 220 American 76 326 Holy Cross 67   
Sat, Jan 24 316 Lafayette 59 303 Lehigh 64   
Sat, Jan 24 339 Army 56 183 Navy 84   
Sat, Jan 24 322 Bucknell 62 323 Loyola Maryland 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 278 Boston University 69 183 Navy 71 58%   
Wed, Jan 28 322 Bucknell 67 316 Lafayette 71 64%   
Wed, Jan 28 339 Army 73 303 Lehigh 74 50%   
Wed, Jan 28 220 American 76 323 Loyola Maryland 72 63%   
Wed, Jan 28 209 Colgate 77 326 Holy Cross 67 83%   
Sat, Jan 31 209 Colgate 74 303 Lehigh 72 59%   
Sat, Jan 31 278 Boston University 71 322 Bucknell 70 51%   
Sat, Jan 31 339 Army 74 326 Holy Cross 72 57%   
Sat, Jan 31 220 American 75 316 Lafayette 67 80%   
Sat, Jan 31 323 Loyola Maryland 66 183 Navy 78 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.6 62.7 21.9 13.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colgate 2.1 30.6 34.1 28.0 5.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
American 2.1 29.2 38.1 24.9 6.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boston University 5.4 0.3 1.9 7.2 25.6 24.3 16.2 10.9 7.3 4.2 2.1
Lehigh 4.5 1.6 6.5 13.2 37.4 20.6 10.5 5.8 2.7 1.3 0.4
Lafayette 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.3 11.9 15.9 17.3 16.6 15.6 15.0
Bucknell 7.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 8.3 13.5 16.0 17.2 17.4 15.1 10.5
Loyola Maryland 6.9 0.0 0.4 1.7 8.6 14.0 17.8 17.8 17.1 13.9 8.7
Holy Cross 6.6 0.1 0.5 2.6 12.4 17.4 17.7 15.3 14.2 12.1 7.8
Army 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.5 7.2 11.2 14.4 16.7 20.1 26.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.1 12.6 19.9 23.6 20.8 11.3 3.2
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.8 13.8 21.5 24.5 18.8 9.5 2.2
American 13 - 5 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.7 20.7 24.8 19.4 9.9 2.2
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.1 0.9 3.8 9.4 16.7 21.7 21.1 15.7 7.6 2.5 0.4
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 0.6 3.4 9.9 17.6 22.3 21.1 14.2 7.7 2.5 0.7 0.1
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 0.4 2.7 8.7 16.1 21.9 21.9 16.2 8.4 2.9 0.8 0.0
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 1.6 7.0 15.0 21.9 22.2 16.9 9.9 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.0 5.5 13.6 21.9 23.5 18.5 10.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 0.8 4.5 11.5 18.7 22.0 20.1 12.9 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.0
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 1.2 5.8 14.2 21.8 23.0 18.4 10.0 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 62.7% 46.2 13.6 2.7 0.2
Colgate 30.6% 16.8 11.0 2.6 0.1
American 29.2% 15.1 11.5 2.6 0.1
Boston University 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 1.6% 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
Lafayette 0.0% 0.0
Bucknell 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Army 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 32.3% 32.3% 0.0% 16   0.2 1.5 6.4 16.2 8.0 67.8 0.0%
Colgate 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.7 11.1 9.6 76.1 0.0%
American 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 10.3 8.5 78.5 0.0%
Boston University 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.7 92.8 0.0%
Lehigh 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.9 94.9 0.0%
Lafayette 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Army 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.7% 0.9 12.3 87.7
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 32.3% 1.4% 31.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 23.9% 2.5% 22.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 21.5% 2.0% 20.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.2% 5.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.1% 4.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.4% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%