Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.9 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #210
Pace 67.4 #225
Improvement -2.6 #297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 B- D C D D+
Defense #250 C C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #242 1.18 #147 -0.8 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #84 0.89 #36 +3.5 #34
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.12 #54 +0.6 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #83 +3.3 #83
Freethrows 0.25 #315 71% #234 0.18 #311
Second Chance 26.2% #302 0.95 #313 0.25 #323
Turnovers 16.0% #154
Total Offense -0.5 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #106 1.20 #246 -2.7 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.70 #81 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 39% #249 1.03 #204 +1.0 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #205 -0.9 #208
Freethrows 0.31 #222 73% #201 0.23 #221
Second Chance 31.3% #215 0.96 #71 0.30 #127
Turnovers 14.5% #297
Total Defense -2.5 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #291 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.1% #60 1.1% #204
Possession Length 17.9 #230 17.3 #169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #219 0.14 #75
Improvement -1.0 #233 -1.6 #282

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 24.7% 20.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 92.5% 94.9% 80.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.4%
Conference Champion 30.6% 33.7% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 2.1% 4.3%
First Round22.8% 23.7% 18.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 6 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  0 - 1 +13 +12 A+ C- D+ +1 A+ C- D
 Fri, Nov 7 259 Northeastern L 65 - 68 70% +1  0 - 2 -11 -12 F+ F B- +0 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 201 Drexel W 90 - 83 60% +7  1 - 2 +1 +17 A+ D F+ -16 F C- D
 Fri, Nov 14 5 @Illinois L 65 - 84 2% -11  1 - 3 +5 +4 B D A -0 A+ C D-
 Mon, Nov 17 173 @Siena W 72 - 69 31% +0  2 - 3 +5 +7 B D+ C+ -2 C D D+
 Thu, Nov 20 176 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 32% +0  2 - 4 +1 -7 F C- C+ +8 B A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 309 Albany W 69 - 67 71% -2  3 - 4 -7 -2 B- F C -4 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 198 Fordham W 72 - 62 48% +9  4 - 4 +8 +6 A- D- D+ +2 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 150 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 26% +3  4 - 5 -4 +4 D B A+ -9 C- C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 10 @Florida L 60 - 90 2% -17  4 - 6 -7 +3 A D F -13 D F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 179 Harvard L 69 - 78 56% -2  4 - 7 -13 -5 D+ D+ C- -9 F A- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 316 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 63% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +6 B F B- -5 C- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 339 @Army W 76 - 69 70% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +8 C+ D- B- -8 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 220 American W 64 - 62 64% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 +0 D+ C C+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 303 Lehigh L 77 - 78 79% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -12 +5 B- D- C+ -18 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 323 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 65% +3  8 - 8 4 - 1 -1 +6 C D B- -7 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 322 Bucknell W 95 - 76 83% +23  9 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +16 A+ A- B -11 D+ C- C
 Wed, Jan 21 220 @American L 66 - 70 41% -1  9 - 9 5 - 2 -5 -4 D+ F+ C- -1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 278 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 74% -3  10 - 9 6 - 2 -9 -4 C C+ F -5 D A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 326 Holy Cross W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 303 @Lehigh W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 339 Army W 81 - 70 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 322 @Bucknell W 73 - 69 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 326 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 183 Navy W 72 - 70 56%
 Mon, Feb 16 278 @Boston University W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 323 Loyola Maryland W 81 - 71 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 316 Lafayette W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 @Navy L 69 - 73 35%
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -3 +0 B- D C -2 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.5 11.8 8.9 2.2 30.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 10.1 13.9 6.6 0.5 34.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.7 9.3 10.1 4.2 0.4 28.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.8 13.8 21.5 24.5 18.8 9.5 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.1
15-3 94.4% 8.9    6.7 2.1 0.1
14-4 62.5% 11.8    5.9 5.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 26.3% 6.5    1.9 3.4 1.2 0.0
12-6 5.3% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 16.8 11.0 2.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.2% 39.4% 39.4% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.3
15-3 9.5% 35.4% 35.4% 14.6 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.1 6.1
14-4 18.8% 28.8% 28.8% 15.1 0.0 0.7 3.5 1.2 13.4
13-5 24.5% 25.5% 25.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 3.4 2.6 18.3
12-6 21.5% 20.3% 20.3% 15.6 0.1 1.6 2.7 17.2
11-7 13.8% 16.4% 16.4% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 11.5
10-8 6.8% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.1 0.9 5.7
9-9 2.2% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.3 1.9
8-10 0.6% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 15.2 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.6 5.7 38.5 48.3 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%