Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -9.6 #319
Pace 67.5 #222
Improvement -1.2 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 C- D+ C D+ B
Defense #359 D D- D- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.09 #261 -2.9 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #347 0.58 #352 -4.8 #358
Three Pointers 54% #4 0.97 #249 +5.4 #32
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #244 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 0.26 #303 72% #206 0.19 #295
Second Chance 29.1% #226 0.89 #341 0.26 #303
Turnovers 16.7% #198
Total Offense -3.2 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.32 #344 -2.9 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.71 #103 +0.8 #129
Three Pointers 43% #131 1.11 #302 -2.8 #295
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #319 -4.9 #319
Freethrows 0.33 #277 75% #327 0.25 #294
Second Chance 31.4% #222 1.26 #356 0.39 #332
Turnovers 13.2% #342
Total Defense -8.2 #359

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #45 0.2% #184
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #292 9.2% #330
Possession Length 18.6 #297 16.9 #96
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #336 0.19 #253
Improvement +2.8 #49 -4.0 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.6% 9.4% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.2% 31.1% 55.6%
First Four1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 127 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 7% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- F+ B -9 B F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -35 -9 D C D -20 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 179 Harvard L 52 - 75 25% -9  0 - 3 -27 -18 F D+ F -12 F B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 176 @Cornell L 73 - 86 11% -6  0 - 4 -11 -13 F F C+ +4 C B B-
 Fri, Nov 21 160 @Marist L 65 - 76 10% -4  0 - 5 -8 +2 B- F C+ -11 D+ F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 311 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 40% -10  0 - 6 -26 -7 D- F+ C- -19 F C- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 41% +2  1 - 6 -1 +7 D- B- A- -8 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 29 327 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 58% +3  2 - 6 -10 -5 C- F F+ -6 B- F D
 Tue, Dec 2 65 George Washington L 70 - 84 7% -5  2 - 7 -8 +0 A- F B- -9 A- F C
 Fri, Dec 12 263 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 20% +5  3 - 7 +1 -9 F F+ D +9 B- B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 362 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 78% +4  4 - 7 -9 +3 B C- D- -13 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 31 303 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 28% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +3 C- B+ F -1 C- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 209 Colgate L 69 - 76 30% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A- B- -16 D+ D F+
 Wed, Jan 7 323 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 56% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -7 F D+ A- -13 C D- D
 Sat, Jan 10 278 @Boston University L 91 - 100 23% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +15 B- C+ B- -28 F D D
 Wed, Jan 14 326 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 34% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +1 D D+ C -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 220 American L 67 - 78 32% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -18 -1 C D+ B -18 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 21 322 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 34% +10  6 - 12 2 - 5 -4 +13 B+ D+ D+ -17 F C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 183 @Navy L 56 - 84 12% -12  6 - 13 2 - 6 -27 -8 C F F+ -22 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 303 Lehigh L 74 - 75 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 72 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 209 @Colgate L 70 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Lafayette W 74 - 73 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 278 Boston University L 73 - 75 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 220 @American L 69 - 80 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 323 @Loyola Maryland L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 Navy L 69 - 76 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 322 Bucknell W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 @Lafayette L 71 - 76 32%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -11 -3 C- D+ C -8 D D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.8 0.2 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 6.1 4.1 0.4 11.2 6th
7th 0.2 5.2 8.0 1.0 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.3 10.4 2.9 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 11.0 5.9 0.3 20.1 9th
10th 1.2 5.8 11.3 7.2 0.8 0.0 26.3 10th
Total 1.2 5.8 14.2 21.8 23.0 18.4 10.0 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.2
9-9 4.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.9
8-10 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.8
7-11 18.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 18.2
6-12 23.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.8
5-13 21.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.7
4-14 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
3-15 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
2-16 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%