Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#204
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#212
Pace67.4#243
Improvement-2.9#336

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#249
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#230
Layup/Dunks-1.1#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#339
Freethrows+3.7#22
Improvement-2.1#329

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot-0.6#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#131
Layups/Dunks+4.7#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#257
Freethrows+1.4#97
Improvement-0.7#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 22.7% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 90.0% 90.7% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 89.4% 82.6%
Conference Champion 31.6% 32.0% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 1.6%
First Four5.3% 5.2% 7.1%
First Round20.0% 20.3% 12.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 260 @Presbyterian W 76-55 49%     1 - 0 +18.5 +10.3 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 7 79 Yale L 68-97 25%     1 - 1 -24.6 -12.7 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @Penn St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 2 -1.8 +0.4 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 22 @North Carolina L 61-73 4%     1 - 3 +6.2 -2.8 +9.0
  Sat, Nov 22 352 NJIT W 86-70 89%     2 - 3 +0.1 +10.3 -9.9
  Wed, Nov 26 357 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 85%     3 - 3 +18.8 +8.5 +12.0
  Fri, Nov 28 109 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 18%     3 - 4 -23.2 -9.9 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 29 256 SE Louisiana L 65-69 60%     3 - 5 -9.3 -2.3 -7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 348 @Delaware St. W 66-59 73%     4 - 5 -2.1 -9.2 +7.1
  Sun, Dec 7 324 Air Force W 61-56 82%     5 - 5 -7.7 -9.6 +2.5
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 79-61 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 288 Boston University W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 289 @Holy Cross W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Jan 7 302 Bucknell W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 320 Lafayette W 74-64 81%    
  Mon, Jan 12 248 @American L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 309 @Lehigh W 71-69 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 289 Holy Cross W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 332 Army W 76-65 83%    
  Wed, Jan 28 288 @Boston University W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 Loyola Maryland W 78-67 84%    
  Wed, Feb 4 320 @Lafayette W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 American W 74-69 68%    
  Mon, Feb 9 302 @Bucknell W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 180 @Colgate L 69-73 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 309 Lehigh W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 332 @Army W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 338 @Loyola Maryland W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 180 Colgate W 72-70 56%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 5.9 8.4 7.7 4.8 1.8 0.3 31.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 8.2 7.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.5 4.3 1.0 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.0 8.2 10.6 13.6 15.2 14.1 11.8 8.5 4.8 1.8 0.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 98.3% 4.8    4.4 0.3
15-3 90.8% 7.7    6.3 1.4 0.0
14-4 71.0% 8.4    5.5 2.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.8% 5.9    2.6 2.5 0.7 0.1
12-6 15.2% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.6% 31.6 21.5 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 49.5% 49.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 49.4% 49.4% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9
16-2 4.8% 41.8% 41.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.8
15-3 8.5% 36.3% 36.3% 14.9 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.5 5.4
14-4 11.8% 32.6% 32.6% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.4 8.0
13-5 14.1% 26.8% 26.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.3 10.4
12-6 15.2% 22.6% 22.6% 15.7 0.1 0.8 2.6 11.7
11-7 13.6% 17.5% 17.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 11.2
10-8 10.6% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.1 1.3 9.3
9-9 8.2% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.3
8-10 5.0% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.7
7-11 3.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.4 11.7 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 7.8 47.1 35.3 9.8