Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 #183
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #190
Pace 66.0 #261
Improvement +2.4 #76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #254 D+ C D+ B C-
Defense #129 C+ C C B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.06 #292 -1.1 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.70 #275 +0.7 #145
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.97 #236 -3.5 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #294 -3.9 #292
Freethrows 0.35 #47 74% #125 0.26 #40
Second Chance 30.4% #195 1.09 #117 0.33 #150
Turnovers 18.0% #284
Total Offense -2.9 #254

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.24 #287 +3.8 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #36 0.80 #264 -3.0 #352
Three Pointers 43% #107 0.91 #51 +1.2 #139
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #124 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 0.25 #46 74% #279 0.19 #67
Second Chance 29.3% #127 1.05 #193 0.31 #150
Turnovers 16.3% #189
Total Defense +1.2 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #239 -2.8% #21
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #295 -1.0% #170
Possession Length 18.5 #295 17.2 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #284 0.16 #156
Improvement +0.8 #140 +1.6 #86

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.3% 34.5% 29.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 62.7% 72.1% 49.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round31.7% 34.1% 28.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Away) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 421 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 268 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 55% +16  1 - 0 +18 +9 C+ C B+ +11 B+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 70 Yale L 68 - 97 26% -14  1 - 1 -24 -11 D+ C- F -11 C- D- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 112 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 22% -6  1 - 2 -3 +1 D+ C+ F -3 B+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 29 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 5% -10  1 - 3 +6 -5 F D+ A+ +11 B A+ A
 Sat, Nov 22 338 NJIT W 86 - 70 88% +10  2 - 3 +2 +10 B C- C+ -8 B D- F+
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 93% +16  3 - 3 +15 +7 D+ A+ F +10 B B A-
 Fri, Nov 28 122 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 24% -21  3 - 4 -24 -9 F F+ D+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 266 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 66% -7  3 - 5 -10 -2 F+ D+ C+ -8 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 357 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 82% +9  4 - 5 -4 -8 F B+ F +4 B- C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 347 Air Force W 61 - 56 89% -0  5 - 5 -10 -10 F+ F B+ +0 B+ C+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 97% +12  6 - 5 +10 +8 D A+ D- +3 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 278 Boston University W 82 - 77 78% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +4 B- C- C- -9 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 326 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 70% +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 -0 -2 D D- D +3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 322 Bucknell W 76 - 55 85% +16  9 - 5 3 - 0 +8 +4 C- B+ F +5 A A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 316 Lafayette W 76 - 50 84% +20  10 - 5 4 - 0 +14 +2 B D+ C- +13 B+ A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 220 @American L 51 - 65 45% -11  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -15 F F+ F+ -1 B B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 303 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 64% -0  11 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +0 D B+ F+ -3 B- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 326 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 86% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +4 +12 C A+ A -7 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 339 Army W 84 - 56 88% +12  13 - 6 7 - 1 +14 +11 A+ A+ F +6 C A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 278 @Boston University W 71 - 69 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 323 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 66 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 316 @Lafayette W 71 - 66 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 220 American W 72 - 67 67%
 Mon, Feb 9 322 @Bucknell W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 209 @Colgate L 70 - 72 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 303 Lehigh W 74 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 339 @Army W 76 - 69 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 323 @Loyola Maryland W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 209 Colgate W 73 - 69 65%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 -2 -3 D+ C D+ +1 C+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 8.1 18.2 20.4 11.3 3.2 62.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.9 9.1 5.2 0.4 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.2 2.6 0.2 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.1 12.6 19.9 23.6 20.8 11.3 3.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2
16-2 100.0% 11.3    11.2 0.1
15-3 97.9% 20.4    17.6 2.7 0.1
14-4 77.1% 18.2    11.0 6.3 0.9 0.0
13-5 41.0% 8.1    2.9 4.0 1.2 0.0
12-6 11.5% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.7% 62.7 46.2 13.6 2.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.2% 51.0% 51.0% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.6
16-2 11.3% 44.2% 44.2% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.9 0.1 6.3
15-3 20.8% 37.8% 37.8% 14.8 0.1 2.0 4.9 0.8 13.0
14-4 23.6% 31.6% 31.6% 15.1 0.0 0.9 4.6 2.0 16.1
13-5 19.9% 28.6% 28.6% 15.3 0.3 3.2 2.2 14.2
12-6 12.6% 23.7% 23.7% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.7 9.6
11-7 6.1% 20.3% 20.3% 15.8 0.3 0.9 4.8
10-8 2.0% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.7
9-9 0.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.3% 32.3% 0.0% 14.9 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 13.3 12.1 50.3 36.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%