Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #291
Pace 64.4 #299
Improvement -2.1 #284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 C- F+ C- C- D-
Defense #315 D C+ D B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.09 #268 -5.7 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #51 0.88 #44 +4.3 #22
Three Pointers 42% #158 0.99 #221 -0.1 #185
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #226 -1.5 #227
Freethrows 0.27 #275 74% #137 0.20 #238
Second Chance 20.8% #358 0.97 #288 0.20 #358
Turnovers 17.4% #245
Total Offense -5.3 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #35 1.31 #335 -6.8 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #246 0.94 #360 -0.7 #234
Three Pointers 37% #280 0.98 #121 +2.6 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #324 -5.0 #322
Freethrows 0.26 #65 74% #289 0.20 #91
Second Chance 29.2% #121 1.05 #188 0.31 #141
Turnovers 13.7% #329
Total Defense -4.9 #315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #333 1.5% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #177 8.2% #322
Possession Length 18.5 #293 17.5 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #304 0.15 #126
Improvement -0.6 #209 -1.5 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 4.8% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 22.5% 44.6% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 6.5% 19.6%
First Four1.8% 2.5% 1.7%
First Round1.1% 2.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 49 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Providence L 79 - 89 3% -10  0 - 1 +1 -1 B- F D+ +3 B B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 14 @BYU L 53 - 98 1% -28  0 - 2 -23 -12 F+ D- F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 104 @Utah L 69 - 87 6% -9  0 - 3 -10 -2 C- F+ B+ -9 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 234 Hampton W 67 - 61 28% +0  1 - 3 +2 +6 C+ C+ F -3 C- C- C
 Tue, Nov 18 265 @Brown L 49 - 68 24% -12  1 - 4 -22 -14 D+ F F -11 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 277 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 79 26% -9  1 - 5 -17 -8 C- F F -9 F B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 173 Siena L 69 - 73 27% -1  1 - 6 -8 -0 A F D+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 259 Northeastern W 76 - 59 43% +13  2 - 6 +9 +1 B F B+ +9 A C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 198 @Fordham W 70 - 69 15% -7  3 - 6 +2 +6 C+ A F+ -4 D C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 235 Dartmouth L 64 - 89 39% -11  3 - 7 -32 -10 D- F D+ -23 F C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 179 @Harvard L 53 - 81 14% -16  3 - 8 -26 -11 F D A -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 31 322 Bucknell W 65 - 58 61% +7  4 - 8 1 - 0 -6 -4 D+ F D+ -1 F+ B A
 Sat, Jan 3 183 Navy L 58 - 65 30% -6  4 - 9 1 - 1 -12 -7 F A+ D- -6 D A D+
 Wed, Jan 7 303 @Lehigh L 58 - 66 32% -5  4 - 10 1 - 2 -13 -11 D- F B- -4 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @American W 84 - 73 18% +3  5 - 10 2 - 2 +10 +11 B+ D A -0 A- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 339 Army W 82 - 75 66% +7  6 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +2 A- F B- -9 C- C D-
 Sat, Jan 17 316 @Lafayette L 55 - 74 35% -12  6 - 11 3 - 3 -25 -15 F F D- -11 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 183 @Navy L 68 - 85 14% -6  6 - 12 3 - 4 -16 +3 B C F+ -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 220 American L 67 - 76 36% -8  6 - 13 3 - 5 -16 -3 B F F+ -14 D+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 209 @Colgate L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 339 @Army L 72 - 74 43%
 Mon, Feb 2 278 Boston University L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 303 Lehigh W 70 - 69 53%
 Wed, Feb 11 209 Colgate L 70 - 74 35%
 Sun, Feb 15 323 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 74 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 316 Lafayette W 71 - 69 58%
 Sun, Feb 22 322 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 278 @Boston University L 67 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 323 Loyola Maryland W 74 - 71 61%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -10 -5 C- F+ C- -5 D C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 8.7 6.1 1.2 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.6 7.7 8.1 1.2 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 4.3 9.2 1.7 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 8.8 3.2 0.1 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.0 4.5 0.3 12.1 9th
10th 0.8 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.8 10th
Total 0.8 4.5 11.5 18.7 22.0 20.1 12.9 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 7.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
11-7 2.3% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 6.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.3
9-9 12.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.5 12.4
8-10 20.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 19.5
7-11 22.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.7
6-12 18.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.6
5-13 11.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.4
4-14 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%