Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.7 #278
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #311
Pace 61.1 #354
Improvement -1.4 #251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 B- D+ D+ D+ C+
Defense #348 D- C F+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.19 #129 -1.5 #237
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #288 0.86 #53 -1.0 #236
Three Pointers 50% #33 1.11 #63 +6.6 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #64 +4.1 #65
Freethrows 0.27 #274 70% #251 0.19 #275
Second Chance 25.1% #320 1.07 #144 0.27 #279
Turnovers 17.9% #279
Total Offense +0.1 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.19 #230 -1.6 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.89 #345 -1.2 #284
Three Pointers 40% #219 1.20 #357 -3.0 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #339 -5.9 #339
Freethrows 0.30 #188 71% #128 0.22 #171
Second Chance 30.3% #167 1.09 #249 0.33 #217
Turnovers 12.0% #359
Total Defense -6.8 #348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #142 0.3% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #69 11.1% #346
Possession Length 19.3 #340 17.3 #182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #354 0.15 #100
Improvement -2.9 #330 +1.5 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.9% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 9.4% 16.9% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 64.5% 34.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.0% 8.4%
First Four5.4% 5.9% 5.0%
First Round4.6% 5.9% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 412 - 1113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 33% -2  1 - 0 -1 -5 D D+ D- +4 A- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 61 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 D- A- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 265 Brown W 90 - 77 58% +14  2 - 1 +4 +26 A+ A+ F+ -20 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 205 Merrimack L 79 - 91 46% -10  2 - 2 -18 +12 A+ C B+ -31 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 168 @Columbia L 49 - 54 20% -12  2 - 3 -3 -15 F C- A +11 B A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 179 Harvard W 75 - 74 30% -2  3 - 3 -0 +8 A+ C- F -9 F D+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 112 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -3 +24 A+ B- A -27 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 180 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 21% +2  3 - 5 -7 +1 B C- F -9 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 319 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 49% +6  3 - 6 -13 +1 D+ B D+ -13 F D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 335 Maine L 59 - 69 76% -7  3 - 7 -24 -8 F B F -17 F A C+
 Sat, Dec 13 235 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 30% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D D F+ -10 D A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 317 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 71% +9  4 - 8 -0 +16 A+ A+ D- -15 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 183 @Navy L 77 - 82 22% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -4 +10 B F+ A+ -14 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 220 American L 62 - 64 49% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -9 -2 F B- A -7 D A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 316 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 48% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +14 A D C -3 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 339 Army W 100 - 91 77% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +20 A+ D+ D -25 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 303 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 67% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +5 A- F B- -18 D- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 323 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 51% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 316 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 70% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -2 B- F+ F -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 209 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 26% +3  7 - 13 3 - 5 -1 +2 A- F D- -3 C- F B+
 Wed, Jan 28 183 Navy L 69 - 71 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Bucknell W 71 - 70 51%
 Mon, Feb 2 326 @Holy Cross W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 323 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 71 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 339 @Army W 75 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 322 Bucknell W 73 - 67 71%
 Mon, Feb 16 209 Colgate L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 303 @Lehigh L 71 - 72 44%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 Holy Cross W 73 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 220 @American L 69 - 75 29%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7 +0 B- D+ D+ -7 D- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 3.4 1.1 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 9.2 10.7 3.4 0.2 25.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 10.0 10.1 2.6 0.2 24.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 6.3 7.9 1.5 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 6.7 1.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.8 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.2 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.8 9.4 16.7 21.7 21.1 15.7 7.6 2.5 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 42.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 18.8% 18.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
12-6 2.5% 19.9% 19.9% 15.7 0.2 0.3 2.0
11-7 7.6% 14.4% 14.4% 15.8 0.2 0.9 6.5
10-8 15.7% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.1 1.7 14.0
9-9 21.1% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7 19.4
8-10 21.7% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 1.3 20.4
7-11 16.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 16.1
6-12 9.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 9.2
5-13 3.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-14 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.9 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%