Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#320
Expected Predictive Rating-13.5#339
Pace68.5#213
Improvement+3.1#21

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#332
First Shot-4.4#299
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#288
Layup/Dunks-2.8#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#281
First Shot-0.5#195
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#331
Layups/Dunks-4.2#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#79
Freethrows+2.9#34
Improvement+3.4#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.2% 10.0% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 34.0% 43.2% 32.1%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.5% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.5% 14.2% 20.5%
First Four3.3% 4.5% 3.1%
First Round1.9% 2.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 410 - 1310 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 171 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 14%     0 - 1 -7.0 +5.1 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 8 41 @Texas L 60-97 2%     0 - 2 -22.1 -6.9 -15.8
  Thu, Nov 13 161 Cornell L 78-97 27%     0 - 3 -22.1 -6.0 -14.7
  Mon, Nov 17 63 @West Virginia L 59-81 4%     0 - 4 -10.4 -4.0 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 340 @Stonehill L 70-74 46%     0 - 5 -12.3 -5.9 -6.3
  Fri, Nov 28 307 Le Moyne L 63-76 57%     0 - 6 -24.3 -17.9 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 308 Ball St. W 55-37 58%     1 - 6 +6.7 -14.9 +24.0
  Sun, Nov 30 206 Monmouth L 74-88 37%     1 - 7 -19.9 -2.5 -17.3
  Fri, Dec 5 328 Mercyhurst W 79-71 64%     2 - 7 -5.1 +8.4 -12.7
  Mon, Dec 8 253 @Penn L 72-74 25%     2 - 8 -4.2 -4.8 +0.6
  Thu, Dec 18 195 @Charlotte L 63-73 17%    
  Sat, Dec 20 131 @Georgia Tech L 63-77 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 180 Colgate L 69-74 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 338 @Loyola Maryland L 73-74 45%    
  Wed, Jan 7 288 Boston University W 71-70 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 204 @Navy L 64-74 19%    
  Wed, Jan 14 302 @Bucknell L 68-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 289 Holy Cross W 70-69 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 288 @Boston University L 68-73 31%    
  Sat, Jan 24 309 @Lehigh L 68-72 36%    
  Mon, Jan 26 302 Bucknell W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 248 @American L 69-76 25%    
  Wed, Feb 4 204 Navy L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 332 @Army L 70-72 43%    
  Wed, Feb 11 338 Loyola Maryland W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 309 Lehigh W 71-69 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 289 @Holy Cross L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 248 American L 72-73 45%    
  Wed, Feb 25 180 @Colgate L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 332 Army W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.2 1.4 0.2 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.3 2.5 0.2 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.7 3.4 0.3 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.2 4.0 0.5 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.1 10.6 13.3 14.3 13.7 11.8 8.9 6.3 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 88.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 72.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.1% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 20.6% 20.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
14-4 0.8% 17.9% 17.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
13-5 1.8% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.5
12-6 3.9% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 3.4
11-7 6.3% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 5.7
10-8 8.9% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.6 8.3
9-9 11.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 11.3
8-10 13.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 13.2
7-11 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 14.1
6-12 13.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.5
4-14 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%