Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.3 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -12.7 #339
Pace 67.7 #218
Improvement +0.8 #145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #323 D D C D+ B-
Defense #282 C- D+ D C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.05 #304 -0.8 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #250 0.56 #357 -3.0 #321
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.97 #248 -0.6 #200
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #307 -4.4 #308
Freethrows 0.28 #264 69% #275 0.19 #276
Second Chance 25.0% #324 1.00 #233 0.25 #317
Turnovers 16.4% #176
Total Offense -5.9 #323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.18 #205 -1.4 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.76 #173 -1.0 #260
Three Pointers 37% #292 1.13 #314 +0.2 #173
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.2 #259
Freethrows 0.28 #111 77% #351 0.22 #126
Second Chance 31.9% #248 1.16 #311 0.37 #301
Turnovers 14.0% #319
Total Defense -3.4 #282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 -0.4% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.7% #327 4.7% #267
Possession Length 17.9 #234 16.9 #101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.19 #240
Improvement -2.2 #300 +3.0 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.1% 16.8% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.0% 18.6% 44.1%
First Four2.4% 2.7% 1.9%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 139 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 137 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 11% -6  0 - 1 -5 +7 C- B- B -12 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 8 32 @Texas L 60 - 97 2% -18  0 - 2 -20 -7 D- B F -13 C+ F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 176 Cornell L 78 - 97 31% -7  0 - 3 -23 -9 F D B -13 C F D
 Mon, Nov 17 56 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -9 -3 B D+ F -7 D D C
 Fri, Nov 21 334 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 45% -4  0 - 5 -12 -3 F+ D F -9 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 274 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 50% -1  0 - 6 -22 -14 F+ F F -8 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 294 Ball St. W 55 - 37 55% +4  1 - 6 +7 -15 F D+ A+ +25 A+ A- B
 Sun, Nov 30 185 Monmouth L 74 - 88 33% -13  1 - 7 -19 +0 C D+ C+ -19 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 306 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 58% +2  2 - 7 -3 +11 A+ B- F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 193 @Penn L 72 - 74 17% -6  2 - 8 -1 -2 B- F D- +1 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 172 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 15% -11  2 - 9 -12 +6 C- C+ C- -20 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 113 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 8% -7  2 - 10 -8 +12 A- F A- -19 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 209 Colgate L 77 - 85 37% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -3 D+ C+ D+ -10 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 323 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 41% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +8 +7 C A+ B +2 B- A- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 278 Boston University L 67 - 83 52% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -26 -10 D- F A -17 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 183 @Navy L 50 - 76 16% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -25 -18 F+ F F -8 F C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 322 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 41% +6  3 - 14 1 - 4 -14 -1 D- D- C- -14 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 65% +12  4 - 14 2 - 4 +6 +1 D- B- A+ +7 A B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 278 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 30% +2  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -7 F+ F C+ -1 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 303 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 35% -7  4 - 16 2 - 6 -10 -12 F F+ B +1 B- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 322 Bucknell W 71 - 67 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 220 @American L 67 - 76 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 183 Navy L 66 - 71 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 339 @Army L 73 - 74 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 323 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 303 Lehigh W 72 - 70 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 326 @Holy Cross L 69 - 71 42%
 Sun, Feb 22 220 American L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 209 @Colgate L 68 - 77 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 Army W 76 - 71 68%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -6 D D C -3 C- D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.2 4.0 0.5 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 7.1 7.0 1.1 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.4 9.8 1.8 0.0 17.3 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 10.2 3.3 0.1 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 8.1 5.1 0.3 15.6 9th
10th 0.4 2.7 6.6 4.7 0.6 0.0 15.0 10th
Total 0.4 2.7 8.7 16.1 21.9 21.9 16.2 8.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 2.9% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.2 2.7
9-9 8.4% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.5 7.9
8-10 16.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 15.5
7-11 21.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 21.4
6-12 21.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 21.6
5-13 16.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.9
4-14 8.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.6
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%