American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#248
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#209
Pace72.5#102
Improvement+1.1#106

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#254
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#355
Layup/Dunks-1.5#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#44
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+0.5#130

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#225
First Shot-4.3#316
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#25
Layups/Dunks-4.2#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows-3.5#345
Improvement+0.6#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 21.5% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 66.4% 89.1% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 87.1% 74.6%
Conference Champion 16.6% 27.0% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.6% 3.7%
First Four4.6% 3.5% 4.7%
First Round11.2% 19.4% 10.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 416 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 51 @Wake Forest L 74-88 5%     0 - 1 -0.2 +2.7 -1.9
  Sun, Nov 9 253 Penn W 84-78 62%     1 - 1 -2.2 -1.8 -0.9
  Wed, Nov 12 81 @George Washington L 67-107 8%     1 - 2 -29.7 -8.8 -17.9
  Tue, Nov 18 133 @Rutgers L 71-80 18%     1 - 3 -4.3 +0.6 -4.9
  Fri, Nov 28 336 Maine W 74-61 80%     2 - 3 -0.8 +2.8 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 29 164 Siena L 55-59 43%     2 - 4 -7.3 -17.9 +10.7
  Sun, Nov 30 310 Longwood W 92-66 73%     3 - 4 +14.7 +9.9 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 271 Drexel W 75-73 65%     4 - 4 -6.8 +1.9 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 343 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-60 82%     5 - 4 +3.4 +9.2 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 18 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 25 @Virginia L 64-87 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 338 Loyola Maryland W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 288 @Boston University L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 180 @Colgate L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 289 Holy Cross W 75-70 68%    
  Mon, Jan 12 204 Navy W 72-71 53%    
  Sun, Jan 18 332 @Army W 75-72 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 180 Colgate L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 289 @Holy Cross L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 338 @Loyola Maryland W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 320 Lafayette W 76-69 75%    
  Wed, Feb 4 302 Bucknell W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 204 @Navy L 69-74 32%    
  Wed, Feb 11 309 @Lehigh W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 332 Army W 78-69 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 302 @Bucknell L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 320 @Lafayette W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 309 Lehigh W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 288 Boston University W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.9 4.7 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.1 5.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.8 4.1 0.9 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.5 2.7 0.3 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.4 0.3 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.9 9.5 12.2 13.3 13.7 12.5 10.1 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 97.9% 1.9    1.8 0.1
15-3 88.6% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 68.0% 4.7    3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 38.3% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1
12-6 14.4% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 10.2 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 52.0% 52.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 46.4% 46.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.9% 34.9% 34.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.3
15-3 3.9% 29.0% 29.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.8
14-4 6.9% 27.6% 27.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 5.0
13-5 10.1% 22.4% 22.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 7.9
12-6 12.5% 17.8% 17.8% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 10.3
11-7 13.7% 13.8% 13.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 11.8
10-8 13.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.1 1.3 12.0
9-9 12.2% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.3
8-10 9.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.1
7-11 6.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 6.6
6-12 4.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 8.9 86.5 0.0%