American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #220
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #186
Pace 68.1 #204
Improvement -0.3 #199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #240 C D C C- B-
Defense #205 C- C B- D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 1.13 #201 -1.1 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.77 #148 -2.2 #290
Three Pointers 48% #41 1.02 #189 +3.6 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #162 +0.3 #163
Freethrows 0.26 #305 77% #27 0.20 #243
Second Chance 25.2% #319 1.02 #218 0.26 #308
Turnovers 16.6% #185
Total Offense -2.6 #240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.27 #311 -5.1 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.72 #112 +0.2 #173
Three Pointers 36% #316 1.03 #203 +2.5 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.4 #264
Freethrows 0.37 #343 72% #159 0.27 #333
Second Chance 31.9% #244 0.97 #83 0.31 #153
Turnovers 17.9% #85
Total Defense -0.9 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #86 0.5% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #184 4.1% #260
Possession Length 18.1 #260 16.5 #48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.18 #198
Improvement -1.1 #241 +0.8 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 23.2% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 97.7% 99.1% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
Conference Champion 29.2% 36.7% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.6% 2.8%
First Round20.6% 22.4% 17.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 418 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 68 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 9% -9  0 - 1 -3 +2 C C+ D- -3 B D- C
 Sun, Nov 9 193 Penn W 84 - 78 56% +3  1 - 1 +1 +0 B D D+ -0 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 65 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  1 - 2 -28 -8 C- C- D -18 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 120 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 19% -1  1 - 3 -3 +0 D D- A+ -3 C+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 335 Maine W 74 - 61 84% +12  2 - 3 -1 +3 B F A+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 173 Siena L 55 - 59 52% -1  2 - 4 -8 -19 F C- F +11 B A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 261 Longwood W 92 - 66 68% +8  3 - 4 +18 +12 B- B- C+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 201 Drexel W 75 - 73 58% -1  4 - 4 -4 +5 B F A+ -8 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 83% +10  5 - 4 +4 +11 A+ F+ B -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 7% -12  5 - 5 -9 +14 B D+ A -23 F+ F C
 Mon, Dec 22 22 @Virginia L 51 - 95 3% -18  5 - 6 -24 -9 D- C- C -20 F F+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 323 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 81% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A F C+ -5 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 278 @Boston University W 64 - 62 51% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F D+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 209 @Colgate L 62 - 64 36% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A F D- -2 B D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 82% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C C- -17 F D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 12 183 Navy W 65 - 51 55% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +9 -0 C- F A+ +11 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Jan 18 339 @Army W 78 - 67 68% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +7 C+ A+ F -3 D C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 209 Colgate W 70 - 66 59% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 C- A+ F +2 B B B
 Sat, Jan 24 326 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 64% +8  11 - 8 6 - 2 +2 +6 C- D+ B+ -4 F B A-
 Wed, Jan 28 323 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 73 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 316 Lafayette W 76 - 67 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 322 Bucknell W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 183 @Navy L 67 - 72 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 303 @Lehigh W 72 - 70 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 339 Army W 80 - 69 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 322 @Bucknell W 71 - 68 63%
 Sun, Feb 22 316 @Lafayette W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 303 Lehigh W 75 - 67 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Boston University W 75 - 69 71%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -4 -3 C D C -1 C- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.0 11.0 8.9 2.2 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.0 10.4 15.3 8.1 1.1 38.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 8.8 9.0 3.5 0.3 24.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.9 0.2 6.0 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.7 20.7 24.8 19.4 9.9 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.2    2.0 0.1
15-3 89.3% 8.9    6.3 2.5 0.1
14-4 56.8% 11.0    5.0 5.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.1% 6.0    1.6 3.1 1.2 0.0
12-6 5.5% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 15.1 11.5 2.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.2% 34.1% 34.1% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.4
15-3 9.9% 31.5% 31.5% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.2 6.8
14-4 19.4% 25.5% 25.5% 15.1 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.0 14.5
13-5 24.8% 22.9% 22.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.4 19.1
12-6 20.7% 18.6% 18.6% 15.6 0.1 1.4 2.4 16.9
11-7 13.7% 15.0% 15.0% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 11.7
10-8 6.4% 13.0% 13.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 5.6
9-9 2.2% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.0
8-10 0.5% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 15.2 78.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.6 3.4 39.9 50.7 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%