Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -13.4 #348
Pace 69.2 #168
Improvement +1.9 #92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #278 C- C- D+ D+ B-
Defense #341 D+ D- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #236 1.12 #216 -1.8 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #321 0.73 #206 -3.1 #324
Three Pointers 50% #23 0.93 #288 +2.5 #99
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #241 -2.4 #244
Freethrows 0.27 #279 68% #300 0.19 #301
Second Chance 28.2% #253 1.02 #213 0.29 #248
Turnovers 17.9% #274
Total Offense -3.9 #278

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.30 #331 -4.6 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.90 #350 -2.1 #328
Three Pointers 37% #290 0.98 #124 +2.8 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #298 -3.8 #300
Freethrows 0.30 #192 77% #345 0.23 #210
Second Chance 33.5% #299 1.20 #338 0.40 #341
Turnovers 14.0% #322
Total Defense -6.1 #341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #75 0.1% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #280 7.3% #312
Possession Length 18.3 #267 16.8 #88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #295 0.21 #311
Improvement +0.0 #184 +1.9 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.9% 28.6% 8.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 9.7% 25.7%
First Four2.2% 3.1% 1.7%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 49 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Towson L 56 - 67 18% -4  0 - 1 -11 -10 F+ F C- -2 D+ B- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 338 NJIT L 64 - 66 66% +1  0 - 2 -16 -12 F+ B- F -4 B- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 334 Stonehill W 74 - 63 54% +3  1 - 2 -0 +5 B C C+ -5 F+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 271 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 26% -4  1 - 3 -6 +5 A- F F+ -11 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 116 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 7% -12  1 - 4 -8 +3 B D+ C -10 D F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 27 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -24 -19 F D+ F -4 C C+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 88% +7  2 - 5 -12 +11 A+ B+ F -23 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 3 234 @Hampton L 71 - 93 20% -15  2 - 6 -23 -4 F A+ F -18 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 353 @VMI L 70 - 86 51% -15  2 - 7 -26 -1 F+ C C- -27 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 286 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 51% -5  2 - 8 -18 -7 B- F D -11 F F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 87 @George Mason L 79 - 86 5% +1  2 - 9 +3 +13 C+ A+ C+ -11 B F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 220 @American L 69 - 84 19% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -16 -0 B- D- F -16 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Lafayette L 64 - 79 59% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -27 -9 D- F C -19 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 339 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 44% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -0 +1 D- C- D -2 B- D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 322 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 38% +9  3 - 12 1 - 3 -10 -5 C+ F F -5 C+ D+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 209 Colgate L 80 - 86 35% -3  3 - 13 1 - 4 -12 +1 C D- A+ -13 C D- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 278 Boston University W 74 - 57 49% +1  4 - 13 2 - 4 +7 -8 F A+ C +15 A+ A- A
 Mon, Jan 19 303 @Lehigh L 81 - 88 32% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -12 +9 A- D- A -21 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 322 Bucknell W 67 - 62 61% +14  5 - 14 3 - 5 -8 -3 F C F -5 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 220 American L 73 - 76 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 183 @Navy L 66 - 77 15%
 Wed, Feb 4 303 Lehigh W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 278 @Boston University L 71 - 77 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 316 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 38%
 Sun, Feb 15 326 Holy Cross W 74 - 71 61%
 Wed, Feb 18 339 Army W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 @Colgate L 71 - 81 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 183 Navy L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 326 @Holy Cross L 71 - 74 39%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -4 C- C- D+ -6 D+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 7.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.0 7.9 1.2 0.0 17.8 6th
7th 0.2 5.4 10.3 1.9 0.0 17.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 10.5 3.6 0.1 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 7.1 4.9 0.3 13.9 9th
10th 1.0 3.8 3.4 0.5 8.7 10th
Total 1.0 5.5 13.6 21.9 23.5 18.5 10.2 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.1 1.3
10-8 4.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.3 3.8
9-9 10.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 9.8
8-10 18.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 17.9
7-11 23.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 23.1
6-12 21.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.7
5-13 13.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-14 5.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%