Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -10.1 #324
Pace 67.9 #214
Improvement -4.1 #333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #343 F+ D- C F+ C-
Defense #251 D- D+ C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.03 #315 -6.9 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.46 #365 -3.5 #339
Three Pointers 52% #17 0.90 #320 +2.5 #100
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #356 -8.0 #356
Freethrows 0.22 #361 73% #164 0.16 #352
Second Chance 22.1% #353 1.04 #191 0.23 #342
Turnovers 16.7% #192
Total Offense -7.5 #343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #260 1.26 #305 -0.2 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.89 #348 -1.3 #288
Three Pointers 44% #102 1.14 #331 -4.1 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.5 #333
Freethrows 0.31 #217 73% #235 0.23 #232
Second Chance 34.1% #312 1.07 #220 0.36 #291
Turnovers 16.4% #182
Total Defense -2.5 #251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #232 -0.4% #127
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.1% #360 11.7% #352
Possession Length 18.7 #310 17.4 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.16 #163
Improvement -2.3 #304 -1.9 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.2% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 27.2% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.7% 9.0% 30.7%
First Four2.3% 3.1% 1.7%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 410 - 1110 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 297 Delaware W 78 - 70 53% -4  1 - 0 -3 -0 F B F -3 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 7 286 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 29% -1  2 - 0 +7 +6 B- F A+ +2 B- B B
 Tue, Nov 11 213 @Princeton L 63 - 73 18% -12  2 - 1 -10 -7 C- F F -3 D+ C- C+
 Fri, Nov 14 128 Hofstra L 77 - 83 20% -7  2 - 2 -7 -3 D+ B F -3 F+ A+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 93 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 5% -20  2 - 3 -25 -16 F F+ F -12 F F+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 21 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -21  2 - 4 -28 -18 F F+ F -6 D A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 147 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 16% -12  2 - 5 -4 -5 C- D- F +1 C C- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 184 Buffalo L 71 - 73 22% -10  2 - 6 -4 +5 C+ C- D+ -9 D+ A D
 Sun, Nov 30 176 Cornell L 72 - 101 29% -21  2 - 7 -33 -13 F C+ F -18 F F A
 Wed, Dec 3 62 @Akron L 77 - 97 3% -16  2 - 8 -8 +8 C+ F A -17 D- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 263 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 44% -4  2 - 9 -15 -7 F F+ D+ -9 F C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 352 @Rider W 51 - 38 51% +6  3 - 9 +3 -18 F F F +23 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 23 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -39 -22 C- F F -20 F+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 326 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 39% -7  3 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -11 D- F F -4 D C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 303 Lehigh W 72 - 65 55% -8  4 - 11 1 - 1 -4 -9 F B- C- +4 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 183 @Navy L 55 - 76 15% -16  4 - 12 1 - 2 -20 -11 F F F -10 F+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 323 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 62% -9  5 - 12 2 - 2 -10 -9 F F+ F -1 F A A+
 Wed, Jan 14 316 Lafayette W 76 - 69 59% -6  6 - 12 3 - 2 -5 +3 A- B+ F -8 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 209 @Colgate L 76 - 95 17% -23  6 - 13 3 - 3 -19 +1 D D+ D+ -19 F F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 339 Army L 84 - 87 OT 66% -10  6 - 14 3 - 4 -17 +2 C F C- -19 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 323 @Loyola Maryland L 62 - 67 39% -14  6 - 15 3 - 5 -12 -9 F F+ C- -4 C+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 316 @Lafayette L 67 - 71 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Boston University L 70 - 71 49%
 Wed, Feb 4 220 @American L 65 - 74 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 209 Colgate L 69 - 73 35%
 Mon, Feb 9 183 Navy L 65 - 70 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 278 @Boston University L 67 - 73 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 220 American L 68 - 71 37%
 Sun, Feb 22 326 Holy Cross W 70 - 67 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 339 @Army L 72 - 74 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 @Lehigh L 67 - 72 34%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -10 -7 F+ D- C -2 D- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.8 4.7 0.7 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 7.3 7.0 0.9 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 5.4 9.8 1.8 0.0 17.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 10.6 3.5 0.1 17.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 8.1 4.7 0.3 15.1 9th
10th 1.5 4.9 3.6 0.5 10.5 10th
Total 1.6 7.0 15.0 21.9 22.2 16.9 9.9 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.1% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.1 1.0
10-8 4.2% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.4 3.9
9-9 9.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.5 9.3
8-10 16.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 16.3
7-11 22.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 21.8
6-12 21.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 21.7
5-13 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.9
4-14 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%