Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
129 East Tennessee St. 32.7%   15   13 - 6 7 - 1 +1.8      +0.7 141 +1.1 133 65.2 280 0.0 160 +4.4 1
154 Mercer 23.5%   10 - 8 5 - 3 +0.5      +2.4 110 -1.9 237 74.1 55 +1.2 144 -1.3 3
159 Furman 21.6%   11 - 7 5 - 3 +0.1      -0.4 174 +0.5 150 66.1 259 0.0 161 -3.4 4
211 Wofford 9.8%   12 - 7 6 - 2 -3.1      +0.7 142 -3.7 289 68.7 182 +0.4 154 +2.4 2
239 Samford 4.8%   8 - 11 3 - 5 -4.4      0.0 163 -4.4 301 67.8 215 -4.8 238 -7.9 9
257 Chattanooga 3.7%   6 - 12 3 - 5 -5.2      -2.2 226 -3.1 273 66.5 248 -8.0 293 -6.8 7
273 Western Carolina 2.6%   5 - 12 3 - 5 -6.3      -1.4 205 -5.0 318 71.7 100 -7.3 282 -7.9 8
305 UNC Greensboro 1.2%   6 - 13 4 - 4 -8.5      -1.3 203 -7.2 350 68.1 205 -8.1 294 -5.3 5
351 The Citadel 0.1%   3 - 15 3 - 5 -12.9      -5.4 311 -7.5 353 62.8 332 -13.1 346 -6.7 6
353 VMI 0.1%   3 - 15 1 - 7 -13.4      -5.5 314 -7.9 357 67.3 227 -14.4 352 -18.0 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 154 Mercer 77 211 Wofford 80   
Sat, Jan 24 257 Chattanooga 64 239 Samford 75   
Sat, Jan 24 353 VMI 58 273 Western Carolina 88   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 257 Chattanooga 76 211 Wofford 75 53%   
Thu, Jan 29 159 Furman 77 239 Samford 70 76%   
Thu, Jan 29 129 East Tennessee St. 81 273 Western Carolina 70 85%   
Thu, Jan 29 154 Mercer 88 305 UNC Greensboro 76 87%   
Thu, Jan 29 351 The Citadel 74 353 VMI 70 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 129 East Tennessee St. 75 211 Wofford 73 57%   
Sat, Jan 31 239 Samford 79 273 Western Carolina 80 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 351 The Citadel 73 305 UNC Greensboro 75 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 154 Mercer 88 353 VMI 71 93%   
Sun, Feb 1 257 Chattanooga 67 159 Furman 76 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.4 72.7 15.6 7.4 3.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercer 2.5 20.6 36.8 23.8 12.9 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Furman 3.0 14.0 25.5 25.8 24.7 6.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Wofford 2.7 18.1 27.8 27.9 19.3 4.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Samford 5.8 0.2 1.7 4.4 11.3 26.6 23.9 18.0 10.2 3.5 0.2
Chattanooga 5.8 0.2 1.6 4.3 10.4 26.7 24.3 18.3 10.2 3.9 0.2
Western Carolina 6.4 0.1 0.8 2.8 7.5 19.9 20.4 20.6 19.9 7.5 0.6
UNC Greensboro 6.5 0.1 0.8 2.2 6.4 18.9 20.4 21.9 21.2 7.5 0.6
The Citadel 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 22.4 49.4 6.3
VMI 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.4 14.7 80.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.3 10.5 18.5 25.2 23.0 13.6 3.4
Mercer 12 - 6 17 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.7 9.2 17.1 24.1 24.5 15.5 4.9
Furman 12 - 6 18 - 10 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.8 14.5 22.8 25.0 18.5 8.1 1.7
Wofford 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.2 12.3 21.0 24.4 19.6 11.5 3.8 0.6
Samford 8 - 10 13 - 16 0.1 0.4 2.9 8.9 18.1 24.5 23.1 14.6 5.9 1.5 0.1
Chattanooga 8 - 10 11 - 17 0.1 0.6 3.0 9.1 18.5 24.5 23.3 14.2 5.3 1.3 0.2
Western Carolina 8 - 10 10 - 17 0.3 1.9 6.9 15.2 22.1 22.7 17.2 9.3 3.5 0.7 0.1
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 10 - 19 1.1 7.0 16.2 24.0 23.3 16.4 8.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 6 - 12 6 - 22 5.6 18.7 27.5 24.4 14.7 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 5 - 23 13.8 27.6 27.7 18.0 8.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 72.7% 55.7 13.5 3.0 0.4 0.0
Mercer 20.6% 8.6 9.0 2.6 0.4 0.0
Furman 14.0% 5.6 5.8 2.2 0.4 0.0
Wofford 18.1% 8.4 6.9 2.4 0.4 0.0
Samford 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.6 7.8 15.6 7.2 0.4 67.3 0.0%
Mercer 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 5.6 10.5 5.9 0.5 76.5 0.0%
Furman 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.8 9.8 6.6 0.9 78.4 0.0%
Wofford 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.3 1.5 90.2 0.0%
Samford 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 95.2 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 96.3 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 97.4 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 98.8 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.9
2nd Round 3.3% 0.0 96.8 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 32.7% 0.0% 32.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 23.5% 0.0% 23.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 21.6% 0.1% 21.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.8% 0.2% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 4.8% 1.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.7% 2.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%