Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 East Tennessee St. 35.9%   14   6 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 4 +2.9      +1.6 126 +1.3 129 68.9 202 +0.7 161 0.0 1
148 Furman 22.8%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0.7      +1.4 130 -0.7 190 66.1 269 +1.7 147 0.0 1
169 Mercer 16.1%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -0.9      +0.5 152 -1.4 217 75.6 41 +6.1 96 0.0 1
225 Chattanooga 7.6%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.7      +0.4 157 -4.0 311 65.3 291 -8.8 299 0.0 1
232 Samford 6.0%   5 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.0      -0.7 181 -3.4 286 69.2 195 -2.1 199 0.0 1
244 Wofford 5.6%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.7      -2.2 229 -2.6 256 68.6 211 -0.8 183 0.0 1
281 UNC Greensboro 2.9%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.5      -2.1 228 -4.4 321 68.8 205 -8.8 300 0.0 1
294 Western Carolina 2.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -4.6 296 -2.7 264 74.5 56 -5.8 251 0.0 1
330 VMI 0.7%   2 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -10.3      -4.0 275 -6.3 346 67.9 225 -11.3 321 0.0 1
361 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 3 - 25 3 - 15 -14.8      -5.5 317 -9.3 364 62.8 334 -20.2 362 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 11 64 Virginia Tech 96 294 Western Carolina 74   
Fri, Dec 12 193 Austin Peay 76 123 East Tennessee St. 75   
Sat, Dec 13 36 Clemson 70 169 Mercer 63   
Sat, Dec 13 28 Auburn 92 225 Chattanooga 78   
Sat, Dec 13 87 South Carolina 71 361 The Citadel 55   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 15 357 Gardner-Webb 74 244 Wofford 80 73%   
Tue, Dec 16 123 East Tennessee St. 67 22 North Carolina 83 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 311 N.C. A&T 73 281 UNC Greensboro 78 69%   
Wed, Dec 17 169 Mercer 77 57 Central Florida 90 89%   
Wed, Dec 17 295 Bellarmine 74 225 Chattanooga 75 53%   
Wed, Dec 17 98 Wichita St. 77 244 Wofford 64 88%   
Wed, Dec 17 172 College of Charleston 79 361 The Citadel 63 93%   
Thu, Dec 18 148 Furman 80 321 Manhattan 73 75%   
Thu, Dec 18 19 Georgia 97 294 Western Carolina 71 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.9 52.1 23.5 12.1 6.2 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.7 30.8 26.0 17.0 11.0 6.9 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Mercer 3.4 19.0 21.0 19.8 14.6 10.4 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.2
Chattanooga 4.7 6.9 11.3 14.6 16.2 15.6 13.4 10.0 7.1 4.0 0.9
Samford 4.8 5.5 10.2 13.8 16.2 16.0 14.3 11.1 7.8 3.9 1.0
Wofford 5.2 4.5 8.4 12.6 14.4 15.4 14.9 13.3 9.6 5.5 1.5
UNC Greensboro 6.1 1.7 4.5 7.5 11.2 13.8 15.5 17.1 15.4 9.9 3.3
Western Carolina 6.5 1.5 3.5 5.9 9.0 11.7 14.6 16.9 18.1 13.8 4.9
VMI 7.8 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 5.8 9.2 14.2 20.6 28.6 15.1
The Citadel 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.7 10.4 23.4 57.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.8 11.7 15.6 17.2 16.7 12.7 7.1 2.1
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.9 9.0 12.1 14.5 15.7 14.8 11.1 6.9 2.9 0.7
Mercer 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.1 9.2 12.3 14.2 15.2 13.5 10.7 7.0 3.4 1.3 0.2
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.9 11.9 14.1 14.7 12.8 10.5 7.4 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Samford 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 9.6 12.8 14.8 14.6 12.7 10.0 6.4 3.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wofford 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.9 11.6 13.6 14.1 13.6 11.5 8.5 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.1 8.4 12.2 14.3 14.6 13.4 11.3 7.8 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.2 7.3 10.9 13.3 14.6 14.0 11.9 8.9 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 6 - 12 0.6 2.6 6.2 10.6 14.8 15.7 15.0 12.6 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 6.0 14.0 19.5 19.5 15.8 11.6 6.7 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 52.1% 38.9 10.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
Furman 30.8% 20.4 8.3 1.7 0.3 0.0
Mercer 19.0% 11.7 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
Chattanooga 6.9% 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Samford 5.5% 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Wofford 4.5% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 1.7% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
VMI 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 11.3 12.7 6.1 1.0 64.1 0.0%
Furman 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.9 8.0 5.3 1.5 77.2 0.0%
Mercer 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.9 4.4 1.2 83.9 0.0%
Chattanooga 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.1 92.4 0.0%
Samford 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.4 94.0 0.0%
Wofford 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 94.4 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 97.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 97.6 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 35.9% 0.2% 35.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 22.8% 0.4% 22.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.1% 0.3% 15.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 7.6% 2.5% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 6.0% 1.0% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 5.6% 1.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.9% 1.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.3 95.8
2nd Round 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0