East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#161
Pace68.9#202
Improvement+2.2#52

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#126
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#295
Layup/Dunks+5.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#240
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement+2.4#36

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#129
First Shot-1.0#213
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#40
Layups/Dunks+3.7#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#327
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.9% 45.2% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.2% 98.1%
Conference Champion 52.1% 63.2% 51.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round35.8% 45.1% 35.0%
Second Round3.2% 5.0% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 6
Quad 417 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 260 @Presbyterian L 64-68 70%     0 - 1 -6.5 -3.0 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 12 194 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 78%     1 - 1 +6.9 -2.6 +9.2
  Sat, Nov 15 196 @North Alabama W 78-74 59%     2 - 1 +4.6 +7.7 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 21 323 Morehead St. W 77-62 92%     3 - 1 +2.4 +4.1 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 23 358 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 96%     4 - 1 +24.7 +16.7 +8.5
  Sat, Nov 29 283 Central Arkansas W 80-57 88%     5 - 1 +13.5 +2.8 +10.1
  Tue, Dec 2 72 @Dayton L 71-88 22%     5 - 2 -6.1 +0.8 -6.0
  Fri, Dec 5 176 South Alabama W 91-65 75%     6 - 2 +21.9 +18.1 +4.4
  Fri, Dec 12 193 @Austin Peay L 75-76 58%     6 - 3 +0.0 +5.6 -5.6
  Tue, Dec 16 22 @North Carolina L 68-83 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 252 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 85%    
  Wed, Dec 31 361 @The Citadel W 79-64 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 169 Mercer W 81-74 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 330 VMI W 82-66 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 UNC Greensboro W 80-68 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 294 @Western Carolina W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 232 @Samford W 77-73 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 225 @Chattanooga W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 361 The Citadel W 82-61 97%    
  Thu, Jan 29 294 Western Carolina W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 244 @Wofford W 76-71 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 148 Furman W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 330 @VMI W 79-69 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 225 Chattanooga W 78-68 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 232 Samford W 80-70 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @Furman L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 281 @UNC Greensboro W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 244 Wofford W 79-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 169 @Mercer W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.6 10.7 14.3 12.4 7.1 2.1 52.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.0 8.4 6.2 2.5 0.3 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.8 11.7 15.6 17.2 16.7 12.7 7.1 2.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 7.1    7.1 0.1
16-2 97.4% 12.4    11.4 1.0
15-3 85.3% 14.3    11.0 3.1 0.2
14-4 61.9% 10.7    5.8 4.2 0.6 0.0
13-5 29.5% 4.6    1.4 2.2 0.9 0.1
12-6 8.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.1% 52.1 38.9 10.9 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 61.0% 61.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8
17-1 7.1% 57.9% 57.9% 12.6 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.0
16-2 12.7% 49.5% 49.5% 13.1 0.0 1.2 3.3 1.6 0.1 6.4
15-3 16.7% 43.1% 43.1% 13.5 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.5
14-4 17.2% 38.2% 38.2% 13.9 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.3 0.0 10.6
13-5 15.6% 31.0% 31.0% 14.2 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.1 10.7
12-6 11.7% 24.7% 24.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 8.8
11-7 7.8% 19.3% 19.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 6.3
10-8 4.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.0
9-9 2.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1
8-10 1.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1
7-11 0.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 11.3 12.7 6.1 1.0 64.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.6 4.3 4.3 6.4 17.0 53.2 14.9