Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.6 189
Results Rating -2.3 201
Consistency 0.14 111
Pace 71.8 92
Improvement -2.3 264

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 130 C C C+ B C-
Defense D+ 264 D+ C- C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 239 C+ 60% 134 -0.6 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 134 C- 36% 243 +0.3 158
Three Pointers 41% 184 C+ 35% 143 +0.3 169
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 235 C +0.4 147
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 165
Second Chance B- 32.7% 104 C- 0.99 250 C 0.32 147
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 209
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 107
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 148
Freethrows B 0.34 53 C 73% 182 B 0.25 66
Total Offense C+ +1.4 130

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 167 C 11.2% 193
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 357 B- 3.8% 101
Three Pointers D+ 79% 281 D 1.4% 308
Total D+ 51% 271 C 5.5% 184


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 B- 54% 77 -0.7 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 161 D- 43% 337 +1.2 289
Three Pointers 39% 234 F+ 38% 351 +1.8 280
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 181 D+ +2.2 271
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 261
Second Chance D 33.7% 310 C+ 0.99 117 C- 0.33 243
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.5% 103
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 225
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 134
Freethrows B 0.26 63 F+ 77% 354 B- 0.20 108
Total Defense D+ -3.0 264

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 35 C- 10.4% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 119 C- 3.7% 249
Three Pointers C- 85% 213 B+ 1.9% 31
Total B- 51% 84 C 5.6% 166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 104 17.2 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 63 0.19 258
Consistency 0.15 328 0.12 113
Improvement -1.4 259 -1.0 240

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 190 188 187
Results Rating Rank 202 202 202
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 414 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 3% -11  7% 0 - 1 B- +6 D+ -3 F+ D+ A+ A +9 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 219 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 67% +8  95% 1 - 1 B +9 A+ +16 A A+ A+ D- -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 154 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 31% -16  5% 1 - 2 F -33 F -15 F D+ F F -13 F D D+
 Sat, Nov 22 298 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 63% +11  93% 2 - 2 B- +7 A- +11 A+ B+ F D+ -5 C D D
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 62% -3  21% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +8 C- A+ C- D+ -4 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 242 @Elon W 91 - 84 51% +1  46% 4 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 C+ F+ A C +0 C+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 305 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 83% +5  75% 5 - 2 C -1 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ C+ +2 F+ A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 40 @Clemson L 63 - 70 6% +0  52% 5 - 3 B +10 B- +4 A- D- A B +5 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 52 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 8% -10  0% 5 - 4 C- -4 F+ -9 F+ C+ F B+ +6 B+ B- B
 Sat, Dec 20 132 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 27% -4  13% 5 - 5 C -1 C- -2 C- C- B- C+ +2 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 182 @Furman L 72 - 74 37% -3  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C -0 C +1 F A- A- C -1 D- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 165 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 33% -1  36% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 C +0 C+ F C- D+ -3 A F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 341 The Citadel W 101 - 63 90% +21  99% 6 - 7 1 - 2 A +22 A+ +23 A+ A+ D C+ +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 243 Wofford W 109 - 97 73% +7  96% 7 - 7 2 - 2 C+ +4 A+ +18 A+ A+ D+ F -15 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 359 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  68% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F A+ F C -1 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 297 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 63% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C+ +5 A+ +16 A+ A+ F F -11 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 225 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 69% +14  98% 10 - 7 5 - 2 B- +5 B+ +8 D- A+ A C- -2 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 243 @Wofford L 77 - 80 51% -1  34% 10 - 8 5 - 3 D+ -5 C- -2 C- F C+ D+ -3 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 297 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 82% +14  86% 11 - 8 6 - 3 B- +7 B +7 C- A B- C -1 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 359 VMI W 95 - 81 95% +4  78% 12 - 8 7 - 3 D+ -6 B- +4 D A- B F -11 F B- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 295 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 62% +1  52% 12 - 9 7 - 4 D -9 D- -7 F D C- C- -2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @Samford L 49 - 69 41% -15  2% 12 - 10 7 - 5 F -19 F -25 F F C- B +4 C- B C+
 Wed, Feb 11 182 Furman W 69 - 64 60% -2  23% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C +1 D -5 F C- A- B+ +6 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 341 @The Citadel W 70 - 54 77% -1  28% 14 - 10 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -2 B- F F A +11 A+ F A-
 Thu, Feb 19 295 Chattanooga L 90 - 94 81% -2  20% 14 - 11 9 - 6 F+ -15 A +15 A+ C A- F -30 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Samford W 89 - 86 64% +2  70% 15 - 11 10 - 6 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -11 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 225 @Western Carolina L 74 - 78 46% +0  44% 15 - 12 10 - 7 C- -5 C- -2 D+ D D C- -3 D+ A- C+
 Sat, Feb 28 165 East Tennessee St. W 82 - 76 55% +8  98% 16 - 12 11 - 7 C+ +3 A +13 A C+ A F+ -9 C D F+
 Sat, Mar 7 225 Western Carolina L 73 - 77 58% +5  79% 16 - 13 D+ -8 D+ -3 D D A+ D+ -5 A+ F A-
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C+ +1 D+ C C- D+ -3 C+ C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C- C+ C 37% 41% 41% C- C B- C- C C+ B C B D+ B- D- F+ D+ 40% 21% 39% C D+ D C+ C- C+ B F+ B-
1.11 60% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .32 16% .34 73% .25 1.13 54% 43% 38% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.0 .33 17% .26 77% .26
Nov
3		 Tennessee D+ F+ F F F 31% 25% 44% C- F+ C+ F D+ A+ B B B A A+ F F A- 52% 20% 28% D B+ C+ D- D A+ B+ A+ A
0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23 1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18
Nov
9		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A 43% 22% 34% C+ A B A+ A+ A+ D- C- D- D- C+ A+ D C 42% 9% 49% D+ C- F D F C- A+ F A
1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15 1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10
Nov
15		 Winthrop F C A+ F F+ 27% 29% 43% F F F A+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ F F F 42% 19% 39% B- F C- D- D D+ F B F
0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26 1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37
Nov
22		 Eastern Kentucky A- A D+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% F+ A+ A+ D B+ F D+ B C D+ A+ D+ F D 19% 42% 39% A+ C F B+ D D C+ F C-
1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24 1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20
Nov
26		 Appalachian St. B+ F C- A C+ 17% 30% 53% F C- A A- A+ C- A A+ A+ D+ F C+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% A- B- D- D+ D- D- A A+ A
1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30 1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13
Nov
29		 Elon B- C+ F A+ C+ 31% 17% 52% C C+ F B+ F+ A A+ B+ A+ C C- A+ C+ B- 49% 7% 44% D C+ F A+ B A+ F C- F
1.18 59% 22% 43% +5 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34 1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32
Dec
2		 Georgia St. D+ B- F F F+ 33% 20% 47% D+ F+ C+ B- B- C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ C+ F C F 28% 30% 42% C+ F+ B A+ A B+ B- A+ A-
1.10 63% 30% 26% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 15% .50 77% .38 0.94 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 20% .26 67% .17
Dec
13		 Clemson B- A+ A+ F A 27% 31% 42% D- A- F A+ D- A F F F B F+ F B C- 40% 10% 50% D+ C- B A+ A+ C+ B+ D+ B
0.99 71% 50% 27% +3 -2 1.04 10% 1.3 .13 14% .18 50% .09 1.10 70% 60% 32% +5 +1 1.16 26% 0.3 .06 14% .29 75% .22
Dec
17		 Central Florida F+ D+ F D- F+ 33% 29% 38% D F+ C B- C+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ B+ D C B 39% 30% 31% B+ B+ D- A+ B- B C+ C- C+
0.88 53% 23% 29% -9 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33 1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22
Dec
20		 Washington St. C- C+ A+ F C 28% 33% 39% F+ C- B F C- B- F+ F F C+ C F F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ C
1.04 59% 55% 25% 0 -2 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 13% .22 50% .11 1.12 63% 60% 50% +17 0 1.35 17% 0.4 .07 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
31		 Furman C F C- D+ F+ 32% 35% 33% F F B- A A- A- F A F C B- C- F D- 45% 14% 41% C- D- F+ A+ B+ D F A+ D
1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12 1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23
Jan
3		 East Tennessee St. C A- D- D+ C 38% 13% 48% C+ C+ C+ F F C- C+ D C D+ A+ F A A+ 58% 7% 35% F A F C F B- F F F
1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22 1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42
Jan
7		 The Citadel A+ C+ A A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C- A+ A+ A A+ D A A+ A+ C+ A F F D- 34% 10% 56% D- D- D- F F A+ C+ F C-
1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33 0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19
Jan
10		 Wofford A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 10% 35% B+ A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ F F 41% 8% 51% D F D- F F C+ C- F+ D
1.42 73% 20% 59% +19 +2 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 17% .49 87% .42 1.27 38% 40% 50% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.2 .40 16% .34 77% .26
Jan
15		 VMI D+ A- C- F F 47% 11% 42% A- F A+ C A+ F A+ C+ A+ C D+ C+ F F 23% 17% 60% B+ F D+ A+ A B- A+ D A+
1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35 1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06
Jan
17		 UNC Greensboro A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F F+ C- F F 40% 18% 42% F+ F B A- B+ F C+ D C
1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51 1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25
Jan
21		 Western Carolina B+ B- A+ F F 44% 11% 44% A- D- A+ C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ C- B C C+ C+ 42% 10% 48% F C F C D- A+ C+ D+ C+
1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32 1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Wofford C- C- B- D+ D+ 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D F F C+ B+ A+ A D+ B+ C F D 52% 21% 27% C D F F F C+ A- F B-
1.10 57% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.2 .06 14% .37 86% .32 1.15 48% 36% 50% +1 +1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
29		 UNC Greensboro B C F B C- 26% 12% 62% C+ C- B A+ A B- A- C B+ C C A+ A A- 38% 18% 45% D- B+ D- D- F+ D- A D+ B+
1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24 1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20
Jan
31		 VMI B- C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 53% B+ D B B+ A- B A+ B- A+ F D+ C+ D- F 25% 5% 69% D F B+ D+ B- D+ C+ F C-
1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35 1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Chattanooga D- D- F D F 37% 26% 37% D F A F D C- A+ B+ A+ C- F A+ F F 36% 18% 47% D+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53 1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34
Feb
7		 Samford F F F F F 33% 40% 27% F+ F D F F C- C+ C+ C+ B B- F B- C- 34% 26% 40% B- C- A+ F B C+ C- F+ D+
0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
11		 Furman D F C+ D- F 53% 14% 33% A F B F C- A- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 35% 9% 56% C- A B+ D- C+ F A- A A-
1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30 0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14
Feb
14		 The Citadel C- C F A+ B 42% 19% 40% D+ B- F+ F F F A F B- A A+ F A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% A- A+ C- F F A- C+ F F+
1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22 0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23
Feb
19		 Chattanooga A B A- A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ D A C A- A+ F B- F F F F F 36% 22% 42% C- F F C F D- D F+ D-
1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27 1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Samford B+ A+ A+ A A+ 33% 31% 35% C- A+ D B- D+ F A+ D A+ F C B- F D+ 39% 37% 25% A C D C- D+ F C F F
1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31 1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31
Feb
25		 Western Carolina C- C+ A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C F D D A C- A- C- A F B- D+ 43% 20% 36% C- D+ C+ A A- C+ F F F
1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28 1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44
Feb
28		 East Tennessee St. A D+ D- A+ A 38% 17% 45% C A C+ C+ C+ A A+ F A+ F+ A- C- F C- 36% 24% 40% B+ C F B+ D F+ A- D- B+
1.28 56% 29% 53% +10 0 1.24 31% 1.0 .31 14% .66 64% .42 1.19 50% 42% 40% +2 -1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 13% .25 79% .20
Mar
7		 Western Carolina D+ B F+ A- C- 26% 36% 38% F D C+ F D A+ C F F+ D+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 22% 43% B- A+ F D+ F A- F D F
1.09 64% 32% 40% +3 -3 1.02 28% 0.7 .21 7% .31 58% .18 1.14 35% 64% 14% -15 0 0.71 58% 1.1 .63 21% .38 75% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%