Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #154
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #144
Pace 74.1 #55
Improvement -0.7 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #110 C+ C+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #237 D+ C C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.27 #72 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.75 #191 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.04 #156 +0.6 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #126 +1.8 #126
Freethrows 0.31 #144 74% #112 0.23 #129
Second Chance 33.8% #93 1.06 #152 0.36 #100
Turnovers 15.6% #126
Total Offense +2.4 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.09 #89 +0.2 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.85 #316 -1.2 #280
Three Pointers 38% #258 1.18 #352 -1.9 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #273 -2.9 #273
Freethrows 0.25 #40 73% #230 0.18 #50
Second Chance 33.2% #286 0.95 #58 0.31 #168
Turnovers 17.1% #139
Total Defense -1.9 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #252 0.2% #181
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.5% #103 5.4% #278
Possession Length 16.6 #107 16.8 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #91 0.21 #300
Improvement -0.3 #194 -0.5 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 24.1% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 97.3% 98.2% 91.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.4% 95.2%
Conference Champion 20.6% 22.7% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.5% 24.1% 19.4%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 415 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 20 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 4% -11  0 - 1 +5 -1 F+ D+ A+ +6 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 167 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 66% +8  1 - 1 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- D- C
 Sat, Nov 15 124 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 33% -16  1 - 2 -31 -12 F+ D F -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 61% +11  2 - 2 +10 +16 A+ B F -7 C C D
 Wed, Nov 26 202 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 72% -3  3 - 2 +2 +10 C- A C -7 B- D D-
 Sat, Nov 29 192 @Elon W 91 - 84 48% +1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C F+ A- +0 B+ B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 269 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 81% +5  5 - 2 +2 +2 D+ B- C+ -0 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 33 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A D- A- +3 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 49 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 11% -10  5 - 4 -4 -6 D- C+ F +2 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 138 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 36% -4  5 - 5 -2 -0 C- C- B- -1 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 159 @Furman L 72 - 74 40% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +4 D- B A -3 D B D
 Sat, Jan 3 129 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 34% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +4 C D- C+ -5 A- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 351 The Citadel W 101 - 63 93% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +22 +26 A+ A+ D- -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 211 Wofford W 109 - 97 73% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +6 +22 A+ A+ D+ -17 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 353 @VMI W 77 - 67 84% +2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -0 +2 F A+ F+ -2 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 305 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 72% +12  9 - 7 4 - 2 +5 +18 A+ A+ F -14 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 273 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 82% +14  10 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +9 D- A+ A -6 C F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 211 @Wofford L 77 - 80 52% -1  10 - 8 5 - 3 -3 +2 C F C+ -5 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 305 UNC Greensboro W 88 - 76 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 353 VMI W 88 - 71 95%
 Thu, Feb 5 257 @Chattanooga W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 239 @Samford W 82 - 80 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 159 Furman W 78 - 75 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 351 @The Citadel W 81 - 71 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 257 Chattanooga W 83 - 74 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 239 Samford W 85 - 77 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 273 @Western Carolina W 85 - 81 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 129 East Tennessee St. W 78 - 76 56%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0 +2 C+ C+ C+ -2 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 5.6 9.6 4.5 20.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 11.9 16.2 5.8 0.4 36.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 9.0 10.1 2.7 0.1 23.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.4 5.4 1.2 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.7 9.2 17.1 24.1 24.5 15.5 4.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 92.4% 4.5    3.5 1.0 0.0
14-4 62.3% 9.6    4.2 4.8 0.7
13-5 22.7% 5.6    0.9 2.9 1.6 0.2
12-6 3.8% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.6% 20.6 8.6 9.0 2.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.9% 38.2% 38.2% 12.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 3.0
14-4 15.5% 33.4% 33.4% 13.5 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.3 10.3
13-5 24.5% 25.9% 25.9% 13.9 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.1 0.0 18.1
12-6 24.1% 22.3% 22.3% 14.2 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.7 0.0 18.7
11-7 17.1% 17.4% 17.4% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.1 14.1
10-8 9.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.3 0.9 0.1 7.9
9-9 3.7% 11.4% 11.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.3
8-10 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.9
7-11 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 14.0 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.6 1.6 38.1 54.2 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%