Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#169
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#96
Pace75.6#41
Improvement+0.6#139

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#152
First Shot+2.5#109
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#305
Layup/Dunks-3.9#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#63
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement-1.0#261

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#217
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#64
Layups/Dunks-2.7#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+1.6#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 21.9% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 86.0% 96.6% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 93.1% 86.0%
Conference Champion 19.0% 27.4% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round15.9% 21.9% 15.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 18 @Tennessee L 61-76 4%     0 - 1 +4.2 -2.0 +6.1
  Sun, Nov 9 142 Lipscomb W 92-77 54%     1 - 1 +13.1 +21.0 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 15 112 @Winthrop L 69-105 24%     1 - 2 -29.5 -12.8 -11.8
  Sat, Nov 22 257 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 56%     2 - 2 +9.7 +17.5 -8.1
  Wed, Nov 26 259 Appalachian St. W 75-67 76%     3 - 2 -0.4 +8.9 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 29 192 @Elon W 91-84 42%     4 - 2 +8.1 +6.7 +0.7
  Tue, Dec 2 334 Georgia St. W 78-67 88%     5 - 2 -2.6 -0.7 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 36 @Clemson L 63-70 7%     5 - 3 +8.6 +3.8 +4.1
  Wed, Dec 17 57 @Central Florida L 77-90 10%    
  Sat, Dec 20 165 @Washington St. L 79-82 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 148 @Furman L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Jan 3 123 @East Tennessee St. L 74-81 27%    
  Wed, Jan 7 361 The Citadel W 84-67 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 244 Wofford W 81-74 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 330 @VMI W 81-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 281 @UNC Greensboro W 80-77 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 294 Western Carolina W 84-75 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 244 @Wofford W 78-77 53%    
  Thu, Jan 29 281 UNC Greensboro W 83-74 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 330 VMI W 84-72 87%    
  Thu, Feb 5 225 @Chattanooga L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 232 @Samford W 80-79 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 148 Furman W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 361 @The Citadel W 81-70 83%    
  Thu, Feb 19 225 Chattanooga W 81-75 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 232 Samford W 82-76 71%    
  Wed, Feb 25 294 @Western Carolina W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 123 East Tennessee St. L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.4 5.6 3.3 1.3 0.2 19.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.5 4.8 1.4 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.7 7.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.8 5.2 1.5 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.1 9.2 12.3 14.2 15.2 13.5 10.7 7.0 3.4 1.3 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.5% 3.3    2.9 0.4
15-3 79.7% 5.6    3.9 1.5 0.1
14-4 50.5% 5.4    2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.7% 2.7    0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1
12-6 4.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 11.7 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 50.9% 50.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 46.0% 46.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7
16-2 3.4% 39.2% 39.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1
15-3 7.0% 32.0% 32.0% 13.5 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 4.7
14-4 10.7% 26.9% 26.9% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 7.8
13-5 13.5% 21.4% 21.4% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.0 10.6
12-6 15.2% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 12.9
11-7 14.2% 11.1% 11.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 12.6
10-8 12.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 11.1
9-9 9.2% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 8.6
8-10 6.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.8
7-11 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.9
5-13 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.9 4.4 1.2 83.9 0.0%