Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #273
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #282
Pace 71.7 #100
Improvement +2.5 #73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 C- C C- D+ C
Defense #318 D C+ D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.09 #267 -0.7 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.78 #138 +0.3 #164
Three Pointers 40% #208 0.99 #222 -1.2 #223
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #232 -1.7 #232
Freethrows 0.28 #266 69% #295 0.19 #289
Second Chance 33.9% #90 0.93 #323 0.31 #183
Turnovers 17.4% #244
Total Offense -1.4 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.20 #234 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.85 #313 -1.0 #258
Three Pointers 45% #78 1.18 #349 -5.4 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #323 -5.0 #323
Freethrows 0.32 #240 74% #241 0.23 #256
Second Chance 28.8% #111 1.04 #173 0.30 #128
Turnovers 14.4% #307
Total Defense -5.0 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #184 -0.5% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.5% #237 10.2% #337
Possession Length 17.5 #191 16.9 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #317 0.19 #252
Improvement +4.0 #17 -1.4 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.7% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 2.0% 6.8% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 59.3% 25.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 1.9%
First Round1.7% 2.7% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 33 - 53 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 55 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 5% -20  0 - 1 -18 -6 C- C- F -8 F C B+
 Sat, Nov 8 3 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  0 - 2 -15 -10 F C- B- -1 A- C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 330 Stetson W 76 - 65 75% +8  1 - 2 -2 -7 B F F +4 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 203 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 48% +1  2 - 2 +1 +12 C- B B+ -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 167 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 20% -12  2 - 3 -19 -12 D- D F -5 D C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 96 @High Point L 73 - 93 9% -7  2 - 4 -11 -3 A+ F F -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 47% -4  2 - 5 -16 -8 F D+ C -8 D+ C C
 Thu, Dec 11 60 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 5% -15  2 - 6 -10 +5 B- C C- -14 F D C+
 Thu, Dec 18 28 @Georgia L 82 - 112 2% -16  2 - 7 -12 +7 A+ C+ C- -15 F A C
 Wed, Dec 31 211 Wofford L 74 - 79 49% -3  2 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -5 F D+ F+ -6 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 159 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 19% +3  3 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +8 C A- D+ -2 C- B F
 Wed, Jan 7 239 @Samford L 77 - 82 32% +6  3 - 9 1 - 2 -6 +4 F A+ D- -11 F+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 351 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 64% +2  3 - 10 1 - 3 -12 -2 F F+ B- -10 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 129 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 31% -0  4 - 10 2 - 3 +3 +7 B B D -4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 257 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 57% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -16 +11 B- D A+ -28 F F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 154 @Mercer L 76 - 88 18% -14  4 - 12 2 - 5 -9 +3 D+ B+ F -12 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 353 VMI W 88 - 58 83% +12  5 - 12 3 - 5 +14 +24 C+ A+ A+ -4 D+ B- D-
 Thu, Jan 29 129 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Jan 31 239 Samford W 80 - 79 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 305 @UNC Greensboro L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @Wofford L 77 - 83 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 351 The Citadel W 80 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 305 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @VMI W 80 - 76 65%
 Wed, Feb 25 154 Mercer L 81 - 85 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 159 Furman L 74 - 77 38%
Totals 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6 -1 C- C C- -5 D C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.0 10.4 3.9 0.2 19.9 5th
6th 0.1 4.3 11.1 4.6 0.2 20.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 11.1 6.1 0.4 0.0 20.6 7th
8th 0.2 3.2 9.8 6.1 0.6 0.0 19.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.2 0.2 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.9 15.2 22.1 22.7 17.2 9.3 3.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 3.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3
10-8 9.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.8
9-9 17.2% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 16.6
8-10 22.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.5 22.2
7-11 22.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 21.8
6-12 15.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.0
5-13 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.9
4-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%