VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.4 #353
Expected Predictive Rating -14.4 #352
Pace 67.3 #227
Improvement -1.9 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #314 F+ D+ C C- C
Defense #357 D- F C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 0.98 #350 -7.3 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.71 #248 -2.4 #299
Three Pointers 54% #6 0.85 #346 +2.1 #115
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #354 -7.5 #354
Freethrows 0.30 #209 69% #282 0.20 #227
Second Chance 28.1% #254 0.95 #304 0.27 #280
Turnovers 16.5% #184
Total Offense -5.5 #314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.28 #323 -2.6 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #240 0.87 #330 -0.2 #194
Three Pointers 43% #121 1.12 #308 -3.1 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -5.9 #341
Freethrows 0.32 #228 72% #200 0.23 #229
Second Chance 40.8% #363 1.06 #207 0.43 #356
Turnovers 16.5% #179
Total Defense -7.9 #357

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #174 0.6% #222
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.9% #358 10.8% #343
Possession Length 19.1 #336 16.0 #21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #330 0.23 #337
Improvement -1.2 #246 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 91.5% 80.6% 97.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 45 - 125 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 321 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 26% -3  1 - 0 -3 -3 F+ C- B- -0 C- C+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 54 @Missouri L 68 - 106 2% -11  1 - 1 -25 -5 B- F F -17 B- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 283 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 38% -3  1 - 2 -12 -6 F+ A+ F -6 F+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 121 @Richmond L 54 - 87 5% -21  1 - 3 -27 -14 D C- F -16 F D+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 330 @Stetson L 80 - 99 29% -9  1 - 4 -26 +8 D D+ A+ -35 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 184 Buffalo L 70 - 78 14% -1  1 - 5 -10 -3 F B+ A -7 C D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 147 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 10% -22  1 - 6 -32 -22 F F D+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 49 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F C- D+ -3 A A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 323 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 49% +15  2 - 7 +3 +15 B+ C A+ -11 C F C
 Sun, Dec 21 255 @Radford L 90 - 97 15% -2  2 - 8 -9 +10 C A+ D -19 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 239 Samford L 58 - 78 28% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -27 -18 F F D -10 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 257 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 31% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -0 +2 C+ D- D -2 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 129 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 6% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 +0 D- F A+ -10 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 159 @Furman L 48 - 69 7% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -18 -20 F D+ F +1 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 154 Mercer L 67 - 77 16% -2  3 - 12 1 - 4 -13 -5 C+ F C- -8 A- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 351 The Citadel L 68 - 82 60% -10  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -12 D- F D- -19 F A C
 Wed, Jan 21 305 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 43% -6  3 - 14 1 - 6 -18 +1 F A- B -20 D- D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 273 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 17% -12  3 - 15 1 - 7 -33 -6 F D C+ -33 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 351 @The Citadel L 71 - 74 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Mercer L 71 - 88 5%
 Wed, Feb 4 211 Wofford L 73 - 80 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 129 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 78 13%
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @UNC Greensboro L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Furman L 67 - 78 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 211 @Wofford L 70 - 83 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Western Carolina L 76 - 80 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 239 @Samford L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 @Chattanooga L 68 - 79 15%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 15 -13 -6 F+ D+ C -8 D- F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.3 3.4 8th
9th 1.9 6.5 5.4 0.9 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 13.8 27.6 25.8 11.4 2.0 0.0 80.5 10th
Total 13.8 27.6 27.7 18.0 8.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.8% 0.8
6-12 3.0% 3.0
5-13 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
4-14 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
3-15 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.7
2-16 27.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
1-17 13.8% 13.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.8%