Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #159
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #161
Pace 66.1 #259
Improvement +0.0 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #174 C+ D+ D D B-
Defense #150 C+ C D+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.31 #37 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.90 #27 -1.7 #267
Three Pointers 50% #32 0.93 #283 +2.2 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.0 #122
Freethrows 0.27 #282 67% #325 0.18 #309
Second Chance 30.7% #173 0.91 #330 0.28 #259
Turnovers 18.7% #318
Total Offense -0.4 #174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.17 #190 +0.7 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.76 #175 -1.0 #264
Three Pointers 40% #213 0.91 #60 +2.6 #84
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.3 #109
Freethrows 0.23 #23 73% #234 0.17 #28
Second Chance 29.4% #130 1.11 #281 0.33 #211
Turnovers 14.6% #290
Total Defense +0.5 #150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #125 -3.8% #108
Possession Length 17.7 #205 17.5 #202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #134 0.19 #256
Improvement -0.7 #219 +0.8 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 22.7% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.6% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.9% 92.2%
Conference Champion 14.0% 16.8% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round21.6% 22.7% 17.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 413 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 96 High Point L 71 - 97 30% -17  0 - 1 -20 -5 C+ D F -14 F+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 115 Troy L 61 - 64 49% -7  0 - 2 -3 -11 D+ D- F +9 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 108 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 26% -10  0 - 3 -9 -6 D+ D+ D -5 C- B D
 Sun, Nov 23 186 Queens W 90 - 79 69% +11  1 - 3 +6 +21 A+ D- A+ -14 B- F F
 Thu, Nov 27 121 Richmond W 73 - 72 40% +6  2 - 3 +4 +2 B A- F +2 C+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 89 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 28% -4  2 - 4 -1 -1 B+ F D- +0 B+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 192 @Elon W 97 - 88 47% -1  3 - 4 +10 +19 A- D- A -9 B C F
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Harvard W 79 - 69 67% +7  4 - 4 +6 +6 A+ B F +0 C+ B F+
 Thu, Dec 18 327 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 76% +2  5 - 4 -0 -3 C D+ F +3 C C- C+
 Sun, Dec 21 230 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 75% +6  6 - 4 +1 +4 C+ B- C+ -3 B- C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 154 Mercer W 74 - 72 60% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -1 +1 B- D- C+ -1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 273 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 81% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -4 C- D- C -9 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 257 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 59% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +9 +5 C B- D+ +4 C C B
 Sat, Jan 10 353 VMI W 69 - 48 93% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +5 -9 D B- F +15 A+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 14 239 @Samford W 77 - 73 56% +2  10 - 5 4 - 1 +3 +1 C D+ D+ +2 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Wofford L 70 - 74 72% +3  10 - 6 4 - 2 -10 -1 F+ B+ D- -9 D- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 351 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 83% +6  10 - 7 4 - 3 -12 -4 D F C- -8 C+ F+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 305 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 71% +5  11 - 7 5 - 3 +18 +19 A+ D A+ +0 C C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 239 Samford W 78 - 70 76%
 Sun, Feb 1 257 Chattanooga W 75 - 67 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 129 @East Tennessee St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Sun, Feb 8 305 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 69 86%
 Wed, Feb 11 154 @Mercer L 75 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 353 @VMI W 78 - 67 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 129 East Tennessee St. W 71 - 70 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Wofford W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 351 The Citadel W 78 - 62 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @Western Carolina W 77 - 74 62%
Totals 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0 +0 C+ D+ D +1 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.2 1.7 14.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 10.2 10.9 1.9 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 10.3 11.2 2.3 25.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 9.8 9.9 2.7 0.1 24.7 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.3 6.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.8 14.5 22.8 25.0 18.5 8.1 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.7    1.5 0.2
14-4 76.5% 6.2    3.1 2.7 0.4
13-5 28.0% 5.2    0.9 2.7 1.4 0.2
12-6 3.9% 1.0    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 5.6 5.8 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.7% 37.9% 37.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1
14-4 8.1% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.3
13-5 18.5% 28.6% 28.6% 13.9 0.1 1.3 3.0 0.9 0.0 13.2
12-6 25.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.9 0.0 19.3
11-7 22.8% 17.8% 17.8% 14.5 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.2 18.8
10-8 14.5% 14.7% 14.7% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 12.3
9-9 6.8% 11.6% 11.6% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 6.0
8-10 2.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.0
7-11 0.5% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 14.2 78.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.6 3.9 40.6 47.7 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%