Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#148
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#147
Pace66.1#269
Improvement+4.7#7

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#130
First Shot+3.6#82
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#316
Layup/Dunks+3.0#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#107
Freethrows-1.2#260
Improvement+3.9#6

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot+0.6#146
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#278
Layups/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows+3.2#26
Improvement+0.8#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 24.4% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 93.0% 95.5% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 94.4% 90.2%
Conference Champion 30.8% 33.1% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round22.6% 24.3% 17.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 95 High Point L 71-97 32%     0 - 1 -20.6 -5.3 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 147 Troy L 61-64 61%     0 - 2 -5.3 -10.5 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 14 92 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 22%     0 - 3 -7.3 -5.8 -3.0
  Sun, Nov 23 191 Queens W 90-79 71%     1 - 3 +6.1 +19.9 -12.6
  Thu, Nov 27 102 Richmond W 73-72 35%     2 - 3 +5.7 +3.5 +2.1
  Fri, Nov 28 90 Illinois St. L 65-72 31%     2 - 4 -1.3 -2.9 +1.3
  Wed, Dec 3 192 @Elon W 97-88 49%     3 - 4 +10.1 +18.3 -8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 200 Harvard W 79-69 73%     4 - 4 +4.4 +5.8 -1.1
  Thu, Dec 18 321 @Manhattan W 80-73 75%    
  Sun, Dec 21 266 Charleston Southern W 78-69 81%    
  Wed, Dec 31 169 Mercer W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 294 Western Carolina W 80-69 85%    
  Wed, Jan 7 225 @Chattanooga W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 330 VMI W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 232 @Samford W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 Wofford W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Jan 21 361 @The Citadel W 78-65 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 281 @UNC Greensboro W 76-72 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 232 Samford W 78-70 76%    
  Sun, Feb 1 225 Chattanooga W 76-69 75%    
  Wed, Feb 4 123 @East Tennessee St. L 70-75 32%    
  Sun, Feb 8 281 UNC Greensboro W 79-69 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 169 @Mercer L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 330 @VMI W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 123 East Tennessee St. W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 244 @Wofford W 74-72 59%    
  Wed, Feb 25 361 The Citadel W 81-62 95%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 @Western Carolina W 77-72 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 7.7 8.8 6.6 2.9 0.7 30.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.9 9.1 6.7 2.3 0.4 26.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.3 1.3 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.9 9.0 12.1 14.5 15.7 14.8 11.1 6.9 2.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.8 0.0
16-2 94.8% 6.6    5.7 0.8
15-3 79.2% 8.8    6.3 2.4 0.1
14-4 51.8% 7.7    3.9 3.2 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.1% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1
12-6 5.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.8% 30.8 20.4 8.3 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 53.0% 53.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.9% 48.9% 48.9% 12.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5
16-2 6.9% 41.9% 41.9% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 4.0
15-3 11.1% 35.6% 35.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.3 7.2
14-4 14.8% 29.4% 29.4% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.8 0.0 10.4
13-5 15.7% 23.5% 23.5% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 12.0
12-6 14.5% 18.4% 18.4% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.2 11.8
11-7 12.1% 13.2% 13.2% 14.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 10.5
10-8 9.0% 11.8% 11.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 7.9
9-9 5.9% 9.0% 9.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.3
8-10 3.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.2
7-11 1.9% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
6-12 0.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.9 8.0 5.3 1.5 77.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.3 1.2 1.2 7.1 48.8 40.5 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%