UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #305
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 #294
Pace 68.1 #205
Improvement -2.2 #291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #203 D+ D+ C+ B- D+
Defense #350 D- C- F+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.14 #197 -2.2 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #82 0.69 #282 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 39% #218 0.98 #234 -1.7 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #259 -2.8 #258
Freethrows 0.36 #24 69% #279 0.25 #75
Second Chance 27.0% #279 1.04 #193 0.28 #256
Turnovers 15.3% #108
Total Offense -1.3 #203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.29 #327 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.76 #181 +0.1 #180
Three Pointers 45% #76 1.18 #350 -5.5 #351
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #335 -5.7 #336
Freethrows 0.26 #54 70% #79 0.18 #45
Second Chance 29.6% #141 1.17 #320 0.35 #253
Turnovers 12.7% #348
Total Defense -7.2 #350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #297 -0.4% #131
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #244 11.7% #350
Possession Length 17.5 #182 16.7 #76
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #292 0.15 #127
Improvement +1.6 #100 -3.8 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 28.4% 55.5% 24.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 88 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 6% -7  0 - 1 -20 -12 D F F -4 D D A-
 Sat, Nov 8 192 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 37% -1  0 - 2 -7 +6 A- F C+ -13 C- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 24 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  0 - 3 -27 -4 F D+ C -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 175 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 34% -3  0 - 4 -10 -12 D- F B+ +2 C+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 186 @Queens L 94 - 101 18% -8  0 - 5 -6 +21 B B+ A+ -27 F D F
 Sun, Nov 23 222 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 32% -9  1 - 5 +2 -8 D+ F+ F +11 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 297 Delaware L 60 - 73 47% -1  1 - 6 -21 -10 F F C -12 F A D+
 Wed, Nov 26 91 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  1 - 7 -5 -4 D- A- F -1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 203 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 29% -0  1 - 8 -8 +9 A+ C D+ -17 F F+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 253 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 27% +2  2 - 8 +2 +12 D A+ C+ -10 C- F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 292 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 58% -6  2 - 9 -16 -9 F C B+ -8 C C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 257 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 49% +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -3 +3 C C F+ -6 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 Samford W 89 - 82 46% +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 -0 +17 C+ B A+ -17 F+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 7 211 @Wofford L 85 - 97 21% -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -12 +11 B- B B -23 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 129 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 11% -10  4 - 11 2 - 2 -21 -12 F B F -9 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 351 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 76% -4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -13 -11 F F C -1 D A D+
 Sat, Jan 17 154 Mercer L 92 - 102 28% -12  5 - 12 3 - 3 -13 +11 B+ D- A+ -23 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 21 353 @VMI W 85 - 78 57% +6  6 - 12 4 - 3 -3 +11 C- D A+ -14 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 159 Furman L 66 - 89 29% -5  6 - 13 4 - 4 -26 -1 C D C+ -27 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 154 @Mercer L 76 - 88 13%
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @The Citadel W 75 - 74 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 273 Western Carolina W 80 - 79 53%
 Sun, Feb 8 159 @Furman L 69 - 81 14%
 Wed, Feb 11 353 VMI W 81 - 73 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 211 Wofford L 78 - 80 41%
 Wed, Feb 18 273 @Western Carolina L 77 - 82 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 129 East Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 @Chattanooga L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 @Samford L 75 - 82 26%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8 -1 D+ D+ C+ -7 D- C- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.9 9.6 3.7 0.3 18.9 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 10.9 4.6 0.2 20.4 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 11.6 6.6 0.6 21.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 10.5 7.1 0.8 0.0 21.2 8th
9th 0.7 3.9 2.6 0.3 7.5 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 1.1 7.0 16.2 24.0 23.3 16.4 8.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 7.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
10-8 8.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
9-9 16.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 16.1
8-10 23.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 23.0
7-11 24.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.8
6-12 16.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.1
5-13 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%