Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #293
Pace 66.5 #248
Improvement +3.8 #32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 C F+ B- C- C
Defense #273 C- D D D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #334 1.13 #207 -4.5 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #222 0.82 #84 -0.3 #189
Three Pointers 50% #24 0.98 #231 +3.9 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #205 -0.9 #205
Freethrows 0.27 #273 76% #72 0.21 #218
Second Chance 17.7% #365 1.08 #129 0.19 #363
Turnovers 14.9% #85
Total Offense -2.2 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #241 1.20 #245 +0.4 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.73 #133 +0.9 #126
Three Pointers 45% #74 1.07 #251 -3.0 #305
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -1.8 #235
Freethrows 0.35 #307 73% #222 0.25 #309
Second Chance 32.8% #276 1.18 #325 0.39 #325
Turnovers 14.2% #309
Total Defense -3.1 #273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #211 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #199 3.2% #242
Possession Length 17.3 #165 17.8 #252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.19 #242
Improvement +0.3 #164 +3.5 #19

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5.3% 8.6% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 60.3% 26.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 2.2%
First Round2.8% 3.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 410 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 4% -12  0 - 1 -6 +3 B F+ F -10 F A A
 Sat, Nov 8 125 @UNLV L 69 - 101 17% -11  0 - 2 -27 +1 B F C+ -28 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 35% -13  0 - 3 -19 -2 D F B- -17 D+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 74% +8  1 - 3 +0 -2 D C- D+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 328 North Alabama W 71 - 57 78% +6  2 - 3 +1 +2 C C+ F +1 D+ C+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 226 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 56% -8  2 - 4 -13 -9 F D+ A+ -5 B F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 59% +1  2 - 5 -12 -1 B- D C -11 D D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 25 Auburn L 78 - 92 4% -7  2 - 6 +1 +10 C+ D- A+ -9 D- F A
 Wed, Dec 17 302 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 50% +1  2 - 7 -20 -15 F F A+ -6 C C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 298 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 48% +4  3 - 7 +2 +6 C+ D B+ -3 C D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 305 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 51% -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -10 -3 C+ F C- -7 D- F+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 353 @VMI L 71 - 79 69% -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -18 -8 F F C -11 F C C
 Wed, Jan 7 159 Furman L 67 - 78 41% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -14 -5 C F D- -9 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 10 239 Samford W 88 - 79 58% +14  4 - 10 1 - 3 +2 +5 C F A+ -4 D- B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 211 @Wofford W 76 - 67 31% -2  5 - 10 2 - 3 +9 +2 B+ F C+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 273 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 43% -3  6 - 10 3 - 3 +5 +21 A+ C A- -15 D- C F
 Wed, Jan 21 129 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 35% -2  6 - 11 3 - 4 -2 -4 C F D+ +2 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 239 @Samford L 64 - 75 35% -1  6 - 12 3 - 5 -12 -3 C- D- B- -10 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 211 Wofford W 76 - 75 53%
 Sun, Feb 1 159 @Furman L 67 - 75 21%
 Thu, Feb 5 154 Mercer L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 351 The Citadel W 76 - 65 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 129 @East Tennessee St. L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Feb 14 273 Western Carolina W 79 - 75 65%
 Thu, Feb 19 154 @Mercer L 74 - 83 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 351 @The Citadel W 73 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 305 UNC Greensboro W 79 - 73 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 VMI W 79 - 68 85%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 10 -5 -2 C F+ B- -3 C- D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 6.2 2.0 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.8 14.1 6.1 0.3 26.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.8 12.5 6.4 0.4 24.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 9.7 5.7 0.6 18.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.3 3.5 0.5 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 9.1 18.5 24.5 23.3 14.2 5.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 51.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-7 5.3% 8.9% 8.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.9
10-8 14.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 13.2
9-9 23.3% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 1.1 22.2
8-10 24.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 23.9
7-11 18.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 18.2
6-12 9.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-13 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.8 96.3 0.0%