Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.4 207
Results Rating -3.2 220
Consistency 0.16 250
Pace 68.5 177
Improvement +5.8 22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 153 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense D+ 258 C- C+ F+ C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 315 B- 61% 92 -1.7 244
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 223 D+ 35% 282 -0.6 214
Three Pointers 46% 90 C- 33% 235 +1.5 130
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 232 C -0.4 183
1st FG Attempt C- 1.01 201
Second Chance D- 23.7% 339 C+ 1.07 114 D 0.25 304
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.7% 33
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 82
Turnovers B+ 14.1% 36
Freethrows B+ 0.35 44 D 69% 287 B- 0.24 103
Total Offense C +0.5 153

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 115 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 338 C 5.3% 207
Three Pointers C 85% 179 B- 0.5% 84
Total C+ 57% 150 C 5.5% 181


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 C+ 56% 132 -1.4 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 12 D 42% 304 +4.4 362
Three Pointers 33% 352 D 37% 316 -2.2 85
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.2 26 D+ +2.0 261
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 203
Second Chance B 26.3% 48 D- 1.15 328 C+ 0.30 157
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.2% 352
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 231
Turnovers F+ 13.1% 351
Freethrows C+ 0.29 138 D 75% 326 C 0.22 174
Total Defense D+ -2.9 258

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 86 D 7.7% 312
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 175 C 5.2% 141
Three Pointers B+ 77% 28 D 0.3% 308
Total B+ 48% 32 D+ 4.5% 262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 186 17.2 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 315 0.16 137
Consistency 0.12 142 0.14 285
Improvement +3.2 51 +2.6 72

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 207 207 206
Results Rating Rank 220 220 220
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 204 @Tulane L 72 - 85 38% -6  16% 0 - 1 D- -12 C+ +2 C- B+ C+ F -16 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 356 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 93% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 F+ D+ B+ D -6 C- D- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 317 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 66% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -4 B +6 D B- B+ F -10 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +17 B- +4 C+ D A+ A+ +13 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 170 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 32% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +10 B- +4 C F A+ B+ +5 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 255 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 71% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -16 F F+ B- D- -8 F+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 184 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 35% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -7 B +6 D C+ A+ F -15 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 305 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 73% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +6 C +0 C- B F+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 23% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -39 F -30 F F D D- -7 D- C D
 Fri, Dec 5 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C- B
 Sun, Dec 7 162 Cornell W 93 - 90 52% -3  23% 5 - 6 C +0 C +1 B C C C -1 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 359 @VMI W 78 - 58 86% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +6 D+ -3 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 297 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 61% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +7 C- C+ A F -19 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 225 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 66% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -2 B- +4 C C+ A D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 295 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 60% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C+ F B F+ -9 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 182 Furman L 73 - 77 57% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 D -4 D+ D B- D+ -4 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 165 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 52% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -4 A- +10 B+ D A+ F -14 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 243 @Wofford L 78 - 88 48% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D- -12 B- +5 C+ C B+ F -17 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 295 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 79% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +0 C+ +2 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 182 @Furman L 73 - 78 35% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B- +5 D B+ A+ F+ -9 F F B+
 Sun, Feb 1 225 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 43% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +13 B +7 B+ C+ D+ B+ +5 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 341 The Citadel W 78 - 64 89% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C -2 C -0 B F C- C -0 C+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 189 Mercer W 69 - 49 59% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +15 D- -7 D+ F B A+ +23 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 243 Wofford W 97 - 80 71% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +9 A- +11 A+ A- D- C- -3 C A- F
 Sat, Feb 14 165 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 30% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 B+ +13 C+ +2 F A A+ A +10 A B C
 Thu, Feb 19 341 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 75% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -7 D -4 B- F F+ C- -2 C C F
 Sat, Feb 21 189 @Mercer L 86 - 89 36% -2  19% 14 - 13 9 - 7 C -2 B+ +9 D+ D+ A+ F -10 F B B
 Thu, Feb 26 359 VMI W 80 - 61 94% +2  54% 15 - 13 10 - 7 C -1 C- -2 B- F+ B B- +2 C+ C D+
 Sat, Feb 28 297 UNC Greensboro W 87 - 78 80% +8  92% 16 - 13 11 - 7 C- -2 C -0 B+ C+ F C- -2 B- D+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 182 Furman L 81 - 86 46% -4  16% 16 - 14 D+ -6 B +7 A+ F+ D+ F -13 C+ F F
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 7 -2 C +0 C- C C- D+ -3 C- D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ C- C 34% 34% 46% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D B- D+ C+ D D D+ 37% 29% 33% A- C- B D- C+ F+ C+ D C
1.09 61% 35% 33% 0 0 1.01 24% 1.1 .25 14% .35 69% .24 1.13 56% 42% 37% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .26
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ C- F A- C 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- A- B+ C+ C F D- F F+ F F F 29% 29% 41% A+ F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B- F 48% 4% 48% B F+ F A+ D+ B+ A+ F A+ D A+ F B- D 21% 42% 37% A+ C- A+ F D- D- B- F D
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% B+ F A+ C+ A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C C+ 39% 20% 41% C+ C+ D+ D+ D A+ F A+ D A+ A F+ D- B 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ D+ D+
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas B- A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D C F+ F F A+ C- C- C- B+ D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% B- B- D+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B- A- F D D- A- F D F 38% 40% 23% A- F+ F C- F A+ D A- C-
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -2 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D D A+ C+ A+ C- C+ C F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C D C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B F+ A+ D- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C- D- D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% D+ F C F F D F F F D- D+ C F D- 64% 14% 21% D- D- B F+ C D B+ F C+
0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D F F+ F F B+ B- D+ C+ C+ A C- F C- 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F A- C- B C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B+ 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A+ C C A+ D+ A+ C A+ D B- A+ 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F C D- F C A- B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI D+ A+ F A+ B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F A- A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A+ B+ D+ A- D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A C+ F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- C- F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina B- D- B A C 37% 21% 42% C- C C- B C+ A B A+ A+ D A- A+ F A- 52% 28% 20% C A- F+ F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F C+ F B A+ F A+ F+ B C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D B F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ D+ F A+ D B- A+ A A+ D+ C F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C+ F A+ C+ F B- C B-
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A- F+ A+ A+ A- 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ F+ A+ D+ F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F C+ 41% 12% 47% C+ C+ D+ B C B+ F+ C+ D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F+ F D- F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +4 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga C+ F A+ F+ F+ 40% 4% 56% A- D F+ C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C 24% 20% 56% B- C A- F C+ F+ F A+ F+
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B- D- A+ F C- 18% 38% 44% F D B+ B- B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C F F B+ F F+ F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B+ C+ C- C+ D+ A+ C A+ B+ B B+ A B+ 35% 26% 39% B+ B+ A+ A A+ F F+ D F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C- A+ C A+ C C- F A+ C- 30% 34% 36% A+ C+ F D- F C- C- A+ B+
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D- C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F B A C- A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D B D B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D A+ F+ A+ A- D- B+ D- B- C- B- F+ C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F A- F D+ B C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D- F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A A D- A A 42% 24% 35% B- A A- D- B C D+ D D
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C- B- D- F F F+ B F C C- C A+ D- C- 29% 27% 44% A C A+ F C F A+ F A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09
Feb
21		 Mercer B+ B- F+ A+ C 39% 37% 25% F D+ D- B D+ A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 33% 31% 35% A- F A+ F B B F C F
1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31 1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31
Feb
26		 VMI C- A+ F B B- 29% 10% 60% B- B- F A+ F+ B B C B B- F A+ A+ C+ 29% 18% 53% B C+ C C+ C D+ C B+ C+
1.22 86% 20% 38% +10 +1 1.23 23% 1.3 .29 14% .34 74% .25 0.93 71% 22% 23% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .23 15% .27 67% .18
Feb
28		 UNC Greensboro C F D A+ A- 28% 17% 56% C B+ D+ A C+ F F C- F C- A+ B- F B- 40% 31% 29% B- B- A- F D+ F C+ C+ B-
1.20 47% 33% 53% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.3 .36 19% .17 70% .12 1.07 27% 35% 56% -3 -1 0.93 21% 1.5 .31 11% .34 68% .23
Mar
7		 Furman B A+ C+ A+ A+ 22% 29% 49% F A+ F C F+ D+ A B A F A A+ F C 48% 20% 31% C+ C+ C+ F F F D- F F
1.17 73% 43% 46% +13 -2 1.24 19% 1.0 .19 16% .33 74% .24 1.25 50% 27% 47% 0 +1 1.04 29% 1.5 .43 10% .34 81% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%