The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -12.5 341
Results Rating -10.5 327
Consistency 0.19 347
Pace 62.4 332
Improvement +5.5 25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 297 D D C- D- C
Defense F+ 350 F D+ D+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 D+ 53% 292 -4.3 325
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 257 D+ 35% 277 -1.7 263
Three Pointers 48% 35 D 31% 292 +1.8 121
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 186 D -4.0 316
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 306
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 277 D+ 0.96 293 D 0.26 297
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 270
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 186
Turnovers C- 17.6% 246
Freethrows D 0.26 310 F+ 66% 347 D- 0.17 345
Total Offense D -5.0 297

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 292 F+ 14.7% 345
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 358 C 5.5% 224
Three Pointers B 90% 45 B- 0.6% 110
Total C 55% 191 D+ 6.3% 263


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 F+ 66% 352 +5.1 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 C- 40% 255 -2.2 24
Three Pointers 44% 79 F+ 39% 354 +4.7 344
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 347 F +6.3 357
1st FG Attempt F 1.17 360
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 298 C- 1.05 221 D+ 0.35 280
Turnovers from Steals D+ 7.9% 295
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 217
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 290
Freethrows C+ 0.28 116 B+ 69% 29 B- 0.20 86
Total Defense F+ -7.6 350

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 79 D+ 8.6% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 225 D 2.3% 316
Three Pointers C+ 82% 141 C- 0.8% 181
Total C 55% 172 D+ 4.3% 287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 345 16.6 44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.19 245
Consistency 0.15 353 0.14 277
Improvement +1.9 94 +3.6 31

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 341 341 341
Results Rating Rank 327 326 326
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 8 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 100 - 12
Quad 48 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 131 @Boston College L 47 - 76 6% -11  21% 0 - 1 F -24 F -19 F D D- D- -7 C C- F
 Mon, Nov 10 247 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 33% -0  48% 0 - 2 F+ -18 B- +4 A+ F C+ F -22 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 301 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 25% -8  5% 0 - 3 D- -14 B +7 B- D- A- F -20 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 282 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 41% -5  20% 0 - 4 F -22 F -21 F C F C- -3 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 290 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 42% -6  1% 0 - 5 F+ -18 D+ -2 D- C+ B F -16 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 266 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 26% -19  0% 0 - 6 F -34 F -24 F D- F F -18 F F D
 Thu, Dec 4 114 @Davidson L 63 - 79 5% -9  0% 0 - 7 D -10 C- -2 B D- F F+ -10 C- D- F
 Sat, Dec 13 94 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 3% -5  13% 0 - 8 D+ -7 F -13 F F B B +4 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 163 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 8% +2  52% 0 - 9 C -1 C+ +3 B- D+ D D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 141 @Richmond L 56 - 80 7% -11  0% 0 - 10 F -20 F -14 D+ F+ F D- -8 F B+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 165 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 18% -13  8% 0 - 11 0 - 1 F -28 F -23 F C+ F D- -8 D F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 243 Wofford L 86 - 95 33% -8  5% 0 - 12 0 - 2 F+ -17 B+ +9 B+ A+ F F -26 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 189 @Mercer L 63 - 101 10% -21  0% 0 - 13 0 - 3 F -37 F+ -10 C- B F F -29 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 225 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 29% -2  29% 1 - 13 1 - 3 C- -5 C- -2 F+ A C- C- -3 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 15 297 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 24% +4  67% 1 - 14 1 - 4 D+ -8 F -14 F+ F F+ B+ +6 C B D
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @VMI W 82 - 68 55% +10  92% 2 - 14 2 - 4 C +0 C +1 B- F F+ C -0 F+ B C
 Wed, Jan 21 182 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 22% -6  19% 3 - 14 3 - 4 C- -2 C -0 D- B+ C C- -2 C A F
 Fri, Jan 23 165 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 8% -18  8% 3 - 15 3 - 5 F -26 F -14 F+ F B+ F -15 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 359 VMI W 80 - 56 76% +12  87% 4 - 15 4 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +2 A F B- B +5 C A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 297 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 45% +2  62% 5 - 15 5 - 5 D+ -6 F -11 D F A B +5 B D+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 207 @Samford L 64 - 78 11% -6  0% 5 - 16 5 - 6 D- -13 D- -8 D- B F+ D- -7 F A- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 295 @Chattanooga W 78 - 71 23% +2  81% 6 - 16 6 - 6 C+ +2 C +1 B- C+ C C+ +2 C+ F B
 Wed, Feb 11 225 @Western Carolina L 49 - 87 14% -26  0% 6 - 17 6 - 7 F -39 F -23 F D- F F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Feb 14 189 Mercer L 54 - 70 22% +1  54% 6 - 18 6 - 8 F -21 F -19 F B F+ D+ -4 F A B+
 Thu, Feb 19 207 Samford L 75 - 78 25% -5  20% 6 - 19 6 - 9 D -8 D -6 D D+ A C- -3 F B+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 295 Chattanooga L 72 - 93 44% -18  0% 6 - 20 6 - 10 F -32 F -13 F D- C+ F -19 F F+ A-
 Wed, Feb 25 182 @Furman L 51 - 72 10% -5  8% 6 - 21 6 - 11 F -19 F -14 F+ F B+ F+ -8 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 243 @Wofford W 93 - 90 OT 16% +3  71% 7 - 21 7 - 11 C +1 B+ +9 A- C C F+ -9 F F B+
 Fri, Mar 6 295 Chattanooga W 88 - 85 33% +1  44% 8 - 21 C- -5 A+ +16 A+ D- A- F -21 F D F
 Sat, Mar 7 165 East Tennessee St. L 76 - 83 12% -7  2% 8 - 22 D+ -7 B +6 C+ A+ A F -14 F F D
Totals 8 - 22 7 - 11 -13 D -5 F D C F+ -8 D F+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ D D 34% 31% 48% C D D+ D+ D C- D F+ D- F+ F+ C- F+ F 42% 14% 44% D- F D+ C- D+ D+ C+ B+ B-
1.02 53% 35% 31% -4 0 0.94 27% 1.0 .26 18% .26 66% .17 1.19 66% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.17 33% 1.1 .35 15% .28 69% .18
Nov
6		 Boston College F F F F F 40% 10% 50% A- F F+ C D D- A F C- D- F F A+ C+ 33% 16% 51% D- C D+ C C- F F B+ F
0.71 42% 0% 21% -20 +1 0.65 20% 0.9 .17 18% .37 50% .19 1.15 71% 63% 19% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 6% .45 61% .27
Nov
10		 Charleston Southern B- A A+ A+ A+ 35% 33% 33% D A+ F F F C+ A+ D- A- F D F F F 45% 7% 47% D- F F C- F F F+ F F
1.19 67% 53% 41% +11 -2 1.21 19% 0.7 .13 11% .47 67% .31 1.33 64% 50% 42% +9 +2 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 12% .33 76% .25
Nov
14		 West Georgia B C- A+ B+ B- 52% 14% 33% B- B- C- F D- A- D+ C- D+ F F C F F 48% 32% 20% F+ F F F F F F B F
1.21 58% 56% 38% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.7 .21 11% .31 71% .22 1.32 70% 39% 45% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.3 .48 12% .40 67% .27
Nov
24		 Bellarmine F C+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C- F A+ F C F C+ D- C C- D+ A+ F D 43% 13% 43% C D+ A F B- F C A+ A
0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23 1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Houston Christian D+ D+ F B+ D- 30% 15% 55% D+ D- C B- C+ B F+ A+ C- F F F C+ F 38% 13% 49% D- F F+ F F C- C+ A B-
1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20 1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16
Nov
30		 Presbyterian F F C F F 28% 25% 48% F F D D D- F C F F F C F F F 33% 19% 48% D+ F F+ F F D A+ A+ A+
0.76 18% 40% 26% -16 -1 0.68 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 46% .14 1.27 57% 50% 45% +10 0 1.21 38% 1.6 .58 17% .20 56% .11
Dec
4		 Davidson C- C+ A+ F B+ 33% 24% 43% C- B F+ C+ D- F D+ F F+ F+ A- F+ F+ C 35% 16% 49% D C- D D+ D- F F+ B- D
0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16 1.24 50% 50% 40% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22
Dec
13		 South Carolina F D+ C+ F F 42% 27% 31% C- F C- F F B A F C+ B D F+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% F A- D B C- C- D F F+
0.83 55% 38% 13% -11 -1 0.79 26% 0.6 .15 14% .35 55% .19 1.07 67% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 14% .37 86% .31
Dec
17		 College of Charleston C+ F+ D- A C+ 27% 17% 56% C+ B- D+ D D+ D D- F F+ D+ F D B- F 33% 12% 55% D- F A+ F A+ D+ F C- F
1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10 1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51
Dec
20		 Richmond F F A- C- D+ 31% 23% 46% C+ D+ D+ F F+ F F F F D- F F B F 24% 22% 55% C- F D A+ B+ D C- A C+
0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08 1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23
Dec
30		 East Tennessee St. F B- F F F 24% 11% 64% C- F C C+ C+ F D+ F F+ D- C- B+ D- D+ 51% 13% 36% F+ D F C F+ B- D F F
0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17 1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31
Jan
3		 Wofford B+ C F A+ B+ 43% 14% 43% C B+ A A+ A+ F C- A+ B- F C- B- F F 38% 6% 56% D- F F A+ B+ C D+ D- D
1.29 57% 29% 48% +7 +1 1.18 41% 1.7 .70 20% .30 88% .26 1.43 58% 33% 61% +22 +2 1.50 38% 0.5 .21 15% .35 75% .27
Jan
7		 Mercer F+ F A B+ C- 34% 10% 56% B C- C- A+ B F C- C- C- F D F F F 35% 12% 53% F+ F F F F C+ D+ F F
0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19 1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33
Jan
10		 Western Carolina C- D C D F+ 35% 20% 45% C- F+ A B+ A C- A+ A A+ C- D- B+ B C- 35% 15% 50% D+ C- A- A A F B A B+
1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39 1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
15		 UNC Greensboro F F D C+ F 28% 17% 56% C F+ F+ F F F+ F+ A+ D B+ F B- A+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C F A+ B D B A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16 1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15
Jan
17		 VMI C F A+ A+ C+ 47% 9% 44% A B- D- F F F+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ A+ D+ D- 47% 2% 51% F F+ A D+ B C F A- F
1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49 1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32
Jan
21		 Furman C A- F F F+ 37% 10% 53% B+ D- C+ A+ B+ C A+ A- A+ C- F C+ A+ C+ 44% 9% 47% D C C- A+ A F B- F D+
1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38 1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22
Jan
23		 East Tennessee St. F F F A+ F+ 31% 16% 53% D+ F+ F F+ F B+ D+ F F F F F D- F 37% 8% 55% D- F D+ F F F+ C+ B B-
0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11 1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21
Jan
29		 VMI C+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 15% 73% D A C F F B- C- F F B B- A+ C C 36% 14% 50% C- C A- A+ A- C+ A F B+
1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13 0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15
Jan
31		 UNC Greensboro F B D+ C+ C- 23% 26% 51% F+ D D F F A B+ F+ B- B F A+ A+ B+ 35% 17% 48% D- B D+ D+ D+ B D- A+ B-
1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21 0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Samford D- C A+ F D- 30% 34% 36% D D- A- D+ B F+ C- F F D- D+ F F F 30% 24% 46% B- F D A+ A- B- F C F
0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13 1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33
Feb
7		 Chattanooga C A+ B- F C+ 40% 10% 50% B B- F A+ C+ C F A+ F C+ D D A C+ 31% 20% 48% C C+ F D F B A+ C+ A+
1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19 1.04 65% 45% 27% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
11		 Western Carolina F F F F F 36% 16% 49% C+ F D- D- D- F D A+ B F D- A+ F F 53% 4% 43% F F D- F F F+ A A+ A+
0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26 1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11
Feb
14		 Mercer F F B F F 29% 24% 47% D- F D A+ B F+ C- A+ B- D+ C- A+ F F 42% 19% 40% D F A B+ A B+ C- A+ B
0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23 1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22
Feb
19		 Samford D C- F B- D- 29% 27% 44% C- D F A+ D+ A F C F C- F A- F F 39% 14% 47% F+ F D A+ B+ A B- A+ A-
1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09 1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19
Feb
21		 Chattanooga F D- F D- F 22% 11% 67% C- F B F D- C+ A+ F D F F F F F 30% 16% 54% D+ F D+ F F+ A- D+ C D+
1.00 50% 0% 31% -9 0 0.83 38% 0.8 .29 12% .51 44% .22 1.29 80% 63% 48% +22 0 1.46 23% 1.4 .32 19% .29 76% .22
Feb
25		 Furman F F A+ F F 36% 8% 56% B+ F+ F A F B+ F F F F+ B+ F A+ A+ 53% 5% 43% F A F C- F C- F F F
0.85 44% 75% 25% -9 +1 0.86 14% 1.2 .17 12% .15 25% .04 1.20 52% 50% 24% -9 +3 0.90 56% 1.0 .56 18% .51 76% .39
Feb
28		 Wofford B+ B D- A B+ 47% 6% 47% B+ A- D A C C A+ D+ A+ F+ F A+ F F 45% 5% 50% F F F F F B+ A+ C+ A+
1.26 63% 33% 42% +7 +3 1.22 26% 1.3 .34 15% .45 75% .33 1.22 68% 0% 39% +6 +2 1.20 38% 1.3 .50 18% .21 69% .15
Mar
6		 Chattanooga A+ C A+ A+ A+ 42% 8% 51% B+ A+ D- C- D- A- F D+ F F F F F F 38% 25% 38% C F D- C- D F A D A-
1.39 59% 75% 48% +14 +2 1.34 26% 1.1 .29 9% .23 69% .16 1.34 70% 54% 45% +15 -1 1.30 25% 1.1 .29 11% .18 80% .14
Mar
7		 East Tennessee St. B A+ B F C 42% 10% 48% B C+ B A+ A+ A B+ F D- F C- F F F 49% 4% 47% F F D- F F D D A+ B+
1.17 75% 40% 26% +2 +2 1.08 35% 1.3 .45 14% .36 50% .18 1.28 61% 100% 41% +9 +3 1.26 32% 1.6 .50 14% .36 55% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%