The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.8#361
Expected Predictive Rating-20.2#362
Pace62.8#334
Improvement+0.9#120

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#317
First Shot-5.1#316
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#202
Layup/Dunks-1.6#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#193
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement-2.1#326

Defense
Total Defense-9.3#364
First Shot-7.2#360
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#307
Layups/Dunks-6.1#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#283
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+3.0#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 3.6% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.9% 58.4% 70.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 144 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 150 @Boston College L 47-76 5%     0 - 1 -25.3 -18.3 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 266 Charleston Southern L 86-96 28%     0 - 2 -18.6 +7.7 -26.0
  Fri, Nov 14 315 @West Georgia L 92-100 20%     0 - 3 -14.0 +8.8 -22.2
  Mon, Nov 24 295 Bellarmine L 58-70 33%     0 - 4 -22.4 -13.9 -10.4
  Wed, Nov 26 275 Houston Christian L 65-72 29%     0 - 5 -16.0 -1.4 -15.9
  Sun, Nov 30 260 Presbyterian L 41-69 19%     0 - 6 -33.5 -20.9 -20.7
  Thu, Dec 4 128 @Davidson L 63-79 4%     0 - 7 -10.9 -1.2 -11.3
  Sat, Dec 13 87 @South Carolina L 55-71 2%     0 - 8 -7.0 -10.0 +2.1
  Wed, Dec 17 172 @College of Charleston L 62-79 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 102 @Richmond L 62-84 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 123 East Tennessee St. L 64-79 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 244 Wofford L 68-75 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 169 @Mercer L 67-84 6%    
  Sat, Jan 10 294 Western Carolina L 71-76 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 281 @UNC Greensboro L 67-78 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 330 @VMI L 69-76 25%    
  Wed, Jan 21 148 Furman L 65-78 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 123 @East Tennessee St. L 61-82 3%    
  Thu, Jan 29 330 VMI L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 281 UNC Greensboro L 70-75 32%    
  Thu, Feb 5 232 @Samford L 66-80 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 225 @Chattanooga L 65-79 11%    
  Wed, Feb 11 294 @Western Carolina L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Feb 14 169 Mercer L 70-81 17%    
  Thu, Feb 19 232 Samford L 69-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 225 Chattanooga L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 148 @Furman L 62-81 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 244 @Wofford L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 6.2 8.3 5.5 1.2 0.1 23.4 9th
10th 6.0 13.9 17.5 13.1 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 57.4 10th
Total 6.0 14.0 19.5 19.5 15.8 11.6 6.7 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 1.9% 1.9
7-11 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.5
2-16 19.5% 19.5
1-17 14.0% 14.0
0-18 6.0% 6.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%