The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.9 #351
Expected Predictive Rating -13.1 #346
Pace 62.8 #332
Improvement +4.2 #27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 D+ D+ D D+ C
Defense #353 F+ C- D- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.03 #313 -4.1 #316
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.70 #276 -1.6 #266
Three Pointers 47% #59 0.96 #257 +1.7 #122
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #297 -4.0 #296
Freethrows 0.28 #245 69% #290 0.20 #266
Second Chance 27.9% #256 0.99 #248 0.28 #268
Turnovers 18.6% #310
Total Offense -5.4 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.33 #350 -4.7 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #347 0.84 #306 +1.8 #56
Three Pointers 45% #69 1.11 #298 -4.3 #331
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #355 -7.1 #356
Freethrows 0.29 #168 71% #116 0.21 #144
Second Chance 32.9% #282 1.05 #197 0.35 #254
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense -7.5 #353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 1.9% #334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #313 11.8% #354
Possession Length 19.7 #353 17.0 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #341 0.20 #279
Improvement -0.7 #215 +4.8 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 3.8% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 4.2% 34.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 45 - 126 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 130 @Boston College L 47 - 76 6% -11  0 - 1 -24 -17 F D- D- -9 C D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 230 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 29% -0  0 - 2 -17 +8 A+ F C -25 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 329 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 30% -8  0 - 3 -15 +8 C+ F+ A- -23 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 302 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 43% -5  0 - 4 -23 -17 F C F -9 D+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 300 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 43% -6  0 - 5 -18 -3 F+ C+ C+ -17 F F C
 Sun, Nov 30 268 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 25% -19  0 - 6 -34 -22 F D F -20 F F D
 Thu, Dec 4 133 @Davidson L 63 - 79 6% -9  0 - 7 -11 -1 B- D F -12 C D F
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 3% -5  0 - 8 -5 -10 F+ F+ B- +3 A C C-
 Wed, Dec 17 162 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 8% +2  0 - 9 -1 +4 B D+ F+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 121 @Richmond L 56 - 80 5% -11  0 - 10 -18 -10 C D- F -10 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 129 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 14% -13  0 - 11 0 - 1 -26 -19 F B- F -10 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 211 Wofford L 86 - 95 25% -8  0 - 12 0 - 2 -15 +12 A- A+ F -28 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 154 @Mercer L 63 - 101 7% -21  0 - 13 0 - 3 -35 -6 C- B F -31 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 273 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 36% -2  1 - 13 1 - 3 -7 -0 F+ A- C- -7 C B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 305 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 24% +4  1 - 14 1 - 4 -8 -11 D- F F +3 C B D
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @VMI W 82 - 68 40% +10  2 - 14 2 - 4 +4 +6 B F D -1 F A- C
 Wed, Jan 21 159 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 17% -6  3 - 14 3 - 4 -1 +3 D+ B- C+ -4 C A- F+
 Fri, Jan 23 129 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 6% -18  3 - 15 3 - 5 -24 -10 F+ F A- -17 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 353 VMI W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 305 UNC Greensboro L 74 - 75 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 239 @Samford L 67 - 79 13%
 Sat, Feb 7 257 @Chattanooga L 65 - 76 16%
 Wed, Feb 11 273 @Western Carolina L 70 - 80 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 154 Mercer L 71 - 81 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 239 Samford L 70 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 257 Chattanooga L 68 - 73 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 159 @Furman L 62 - 78 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 211 @Wofford L 67 - 80 12%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 12 -13 -5 D+ D+ D -8 F+ C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 6.6 1.4 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.2 5.1 12.6 4.4 0.1 22.4 8th
9th 2.8 15.7 21.6 8.7 0.6 0.0 49.4 9th
10th 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.3 10th
Total 5.6 18.7 27.5 24.4 14.7 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 24.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.4
5-13 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.5
4-14 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
3-15 5.6% 5.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.6%