Wofford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #211
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #154
Pace 68.7 #182
Improvement +1.7 #102

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #142 C- C- C+ B- B-
Defense #289 C- C- C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.01 #331 -2.1 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #308 0.71 #244 -2.6 #308
Three Pointers 46% #85 1.01 #196 +2.2 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #248 -2.5 #247
Freethrows 0.34 #93 72% #200 0.24 #106
Second Chance 29.5% #220 0.98 #261 0.29 #246
Turnovers 15.2% #104
Total Offense +0.7 #142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.12 #130 -3.3 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #248 0.81 #274 +0.5 #154
Three Pointers 36% #305 1.10 #295 +0.9 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #249 -2.0 #249
Freethrows 0.29 #152 78% #360 0.23 #214
Second Chance 31.2% #204 1.12 #283 0.35 #259
Turnovers 15.3% #248
Total Defense -3.7 #289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #66 1.7% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #291 2.3% #225
Possession Length 17.8 #222 16.6 #56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #300 0.16 #155
Improvement +4.7 #7 -2.9 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.2% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 98.6% 99.8% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 18.1% 26.1% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round9.7% 11.2% 8.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 416 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 87 @George Mason L 46 - 70 12% -9  0 - 1 -14 -20 F D F +4 B D+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 76 67% +12  1 - 1 +2 +3 F+ B+ C- -1 C+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 25 @Auburn L 62 - 93 3% -19  1 - 2 -13 -5 D- F+ C -7 C F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 302 @Bellarmine W 94 - 86 58% +8  2 - 2 +3 +12 A+ F D -9 C F F
 Wed, Nov 19 348 North Florida W 86 - 78 87% +1  3 - 2 -7 -4 F+ B C- -4 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 180 @Northern Kentucky L 83 - 93 33% -2  3 - 3 -8 +6 D- D A- -13 D- D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 77 47% +8  4 - 3 +4 +4 D- D A+ -0 A F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 268 Presbyterian W 63 - 56 72% +4  5 - 3 -2 -7 F D A+ +6 A D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 192 Elon L 52 - 73 58% -21  5 - 4 -26 -19 F F C+ -10 D A C+
 Mon, Dec 15 363 @Gardner-Webb W 83 - 57 87% +11  6 - 4 +11 +4 F+ A+ D+ +7 B- A- B
 Wed, Dec 17 100 @Wichita St. L 73 - 84 15% -7  6 - 5 -3 +9 C B+ B -12 F+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 31 273 @Western Carolina W 79 - 74 51% +3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +1 C C- D +0 B+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 351 @The Citadel W 95 - 86 75% +8  8 - 5 2 - 0 -1 +21 A+ F D -22 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 305 UNC Greensboro W 97 - 85 79% +11  9 - 5 3 - 0 +1 +17 D A+ A+ -16 F+ F D
 Sat, Jan 10 154 @Mercer L 97 - 109 27% -7  9 - 6 3 - 1 -9 +15 B- B C+ -23 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 257 Chattanooga L 67 - 76 69% +2  9 - 7 3 - 2 -17 -9 F+ F A -8 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 159 @Furman W 74 - 70 28% -3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +7 +11 B C B -3 A- F C
 Wed, Jan 21 239 Samford W 88 - 78 66% +1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +15 A+ C- B- -12 F+ F+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 154 Mercer W 80 - 77 48% +1  12 - 7 6 - 2 +0 +4 C A- B- -4 C A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 257 @Chattanooga L 75 - 76 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 129 East Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 353 @VMI W 80 - 73 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 273 Western Carolina W 83 - 77 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 239 @Samford L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 305 @UNC Greensboro W 80 - 78 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 353 VMI W 83 - 70 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 159 Furman L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 129 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 351 The Citadel W 80 - 67 88%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 -3 +1 C- C- C+ -4 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.8 3.7 0.6 18.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 10.1 11.5 3.6 0.1 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 10.8 11.6 2.9 0.1 27.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.0 7.7 1.8 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.4 2.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.2 12.3 21.0 24.4 19.6 11.5 3.8 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-3 96.7% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 67.8% 7.8    3.7 3.6 0.6
13-5 26.2% 5.1    1.0 2.4 1.5 0.2
12-6 3.8% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 8.4 6.9 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 26.1% 26.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 3.8% 17.4% 17.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.2
14-4 11.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 9.8
13-5 19.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.2 17.0
12-6 24.4% 9.7% 9.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 22.0
11-7 21.0% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 19.5
10-8 12.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 11.7
9-9 5.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
8-10 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 14.8 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.8 3.2 29.0 54.8 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%