Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
71 McNeese St. 59.8%   12   7 - 2 2 - 1 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7.9      +2.8 108 +5.1 47 67.3 244 +9.3 67 -1.9 5
140 Stephen F. Austin 16.7%   6 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.4      -0.3 175 +1.7 115 68.1 219 +2.9 132 +9.1 3
189 Incarnate Word 5.8%   2 - 5 1 - 2 14 - 14 12 - 10 -1.8      +2.1 116 -3.9 303 62.8 335 -3.5 227 -3.7 6
208 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6%   2 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.1      -3.3 255 +0.3 157 72.7 96 -5.3 247 -10.8 11
215 TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4%   1 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 15 12 - 10 -3.3      -4.7 297 +1.4 124 68.4 215 -2.0 198 +14.5 1
224 Lamar 3.0%   3 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 12 -3.7      -5.6 320 +1.9 107 64.3 312 -3.6 228 -21.5 12
245 New Orleans 1.5%   3 - 8 1 - 1 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4.8      -0.9 191 -3.9 304 72.6 97 -2.2 201 -6.9 10
256 SE Louisiana 1.3%   3 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 9 - 13 -5.3      -5.5 316 +0.2 161 67.5 240 -5.9 252 -5.9 9
258 Nicholls St. 1.5%   1 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 20 10 - 12 -5.4      -4.2 283 -1.2 208 69.9 171 -9.8 309 +10.4 2
274 Northwestern St. 1.1%   1 - 8 1 - 1 9 - 20 9 - 13 -5.9      -1.0 194 -4.9 331 63.4 323 -8.3 292 +4.3 4
275 Houston Christian 1.0%   3 - 5 1 - 1 11 - 18 9 - 13 -6.0      -1.4 206 -4.6 326 62.5 340 -8.3 293 -5.1 8
303 East Texas A&M 0.4%   3 - 5 0 - 1 10 - 20 7 - 15 -7.9      -6.2 334 -1.6 226 72.3 109 -3.4 222 -4.3 7




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 224 Lamar 71 52 San Diego St. 89   
Thu, Dec 11 177 Texas Arlington 58 208 UT Rio Grande Valley 50   
Fri, Dec 12 71 McNeese St. 102 303 East Texas A&M 66   
Sat, Dec 13 275 Houston Christian 71 256 SE Louisiana 74   
Sat, Dec 13 82 California 79 274 Northwestern St. 70   
Sat, Dec 13 8 Houston 99 245 New Orleans 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 15 45 TCU 79 189 Incarnate Word 64 92%   
Mon, Dec 15 256 SE Louisiana 72 303 East Texas A&M 66 71%   
Mon, Dec 15 275 Houston Christian 64 71 McNeese St. 75 85%   
Tue, Dec 16 224 Lamar 68 208 UT Rio Grande Valley 66 59%   
Wed, Dec 17 215 TX A&M Corpus Christi 65 140 Stephen F. Austin 72 77%   
Wed, Dec 17 275 Houston Christian 68 258 Nicholls St. 72 64%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.3 77.8 15.7 4.2 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0 20.5 34.9 17.5 9.8 6.3 4.0 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2
Incarnate Word 5.1 3.0 13.2 17.4 15.2 12.7 10.1 8.3 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.1 2.2 8.5 13.0 12.4 11.5 10.7 9.9 8.5 7.4 6.6 5.3 4.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.5 4.5 12.6 14.5 13.1 11.3 9.9 8.4 7.3 6.1 5.3 4.1 2.8
Lamar 6.7 1.4 6.2 9.4 10.4 11.0 10.4 10.4 9.6 8.9 8.3 7.8 6.2
New Orleans 7.2 0.7 3.8 6.9 8.7 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.2 8.8 6.2
SE Louisiana 7.5 0.7 3.3 6.4 8.0 9.5 9.7 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.1 7.8
Nicholls St. 7.0 1.1 4.9 8.0 9.6 10.3 10.5 10.9 10.2 10.0 9.2 8.3 6.9
Northwestern St. 7.3 0.7 4.0 7.0 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.6 9.4 7.7
Houston Christian 7.9 0.5 2.8 5.2 7.0 8.4 9.2 10.2 10.7 11.4 12.4 12.1 10.1
East Texas A&M 9.2 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.0 7.3 8.8 10.4 12.5 16.5 26.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.9 5.3 9.4 14.2 19.5 20.7 17.3 8.2
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 7.9 10.3 12.0 13.7 13.1 11.7 9.2 5.6 2.8 1.0 0.2
Incarnate Word 12 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.7 8.0 10.7 12.4 13.2 12.9 11.2 8.7 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.0 6.0 8.1 10.7 11.7 12.5 11.6 10.3 8.1 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.9 6.8 8.8 10.6 11.7 12.0 10.8 9.3 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lamar 10 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 6.0 8.0 9.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 10.4 8.5 6.2 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 6.8 9.3 12.3 13.5 13.6 11.9 9.5 7.1 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 9 - 13 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 5.1 7.4 10.7 12.4 13.7 12.7 10.9 8.8 6.3 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.9 11.1 12.5 12.6 11.7 9.7 7.5 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.4 10.3 11.9 13.0 12.7 10.8 9.4 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 9 - 13 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.2 11.4 13.3 12.7 12.1 10.1 7.6 5.2 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.5 8.2 10.9 12.6 12.4 12.5 10.4 8.2 6.0 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 77.8% 67.3 9.4 0.9 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 20.5% 13.2 6.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 3.0% 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.2% 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.5% 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lamar 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 1.1% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 59.8% 59.6% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 13.3 31.9 11.6 1.7 0.1 40.2 0.3%
Stephen F. Austin 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.0 5.5 2.0 0.2 83.3 0.0%
Incarnate Word 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.5 94.2 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.6 96.4 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.7 95.6 0.0%
Lamar 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 97.0 0.0%
New Orleans 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 98.5 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 98.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 98.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 99.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 59.8% 0.1% 59.7% 13.4% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 16.7% 0.0% 16.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 5.8% 0.2% 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.6% 0.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 0.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 98.9 0.1
2nd Round 15.5% 0.2 84.5 15.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0