Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 McNeese St. 55.0%   12   15 - 4 10 - 2 +7.1      +4.6 73 +2.5 105 66.1 260 +9.2 68 +4.7 2
107 Stephen F. Austin 32.4%   16 - 3 11 - 1 +4.0      +0.3 149 +3.6 75 66.6 241 +6.9 80 +11.3 1
188 TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.8%   7 - 10 7 - 5 -1.9      -4.7 297 +2.8 98 66.8 235 -1.9 199 -0.7 3
191 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2%   8 - 11 6 - 6 -2.0      -2.9 256 +0.9 135 68.0 211 -3.2 219 -3.4 5
207 Lamar 2.2%   9 - 10 6 - 6 -2.8      -2.8 247 -0.1 169 64.2 306 -3.7 223 -3.9 7
219 New Orleans 1.6%   8 - 13 6 - 6 -3.5      +1.1 135 -4.5 305 72.2 90 -2.2 207 -3.5 6
240 Incarnate Word 0.5%   6 - 12 4 - 8 -4.4      -2.0 223 -2.4 247 65.3 278 -6.9 272 -8.1 11
260 Nicholls St. 0.9%   7 - 13 7 - 5 -5.3      -3.0 257 -2.3 246 70.8 126 -4.4 230 -1.5 4
266 SE Louisiana 0.2%   5 - 15 3 - 9 -5.8      -6.4 328 +0.6 145 66.8 236 -8.8 310 -9.8 12
267 Northwestern St. 0.4%   4 - 14 4 - 7 -5.9      -1.2 194 -4.7 308 64.6 293 -8.1 295 -5.2 8
300 Houston Christian 0.0%   6 - 13 4 - 8 -8.2      -2.2 227 -6.0 338 62.7 333 -8.5 305 -7.8 10
311 East Texas A&M 0.0%   6 - 13 3 - 8 -8.9      -7.0 337 -1.8 234 71.5 107 -5.8 249 -7.3 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 207 Lamar 81 107 Stephen F. Austin 88   
Sat, Jan 24 260 Nicholls St. 61 266 SE Louisiana 67   
Sat, Jan 24 83 McNeese St. 82 219 New Orleans 63   
Sat, Jan 24 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi 79 240 Incarnate Word 71   
Sat, Jan 24 300 Houston Christian 51 191 UT Rio Grande Valley 68   
Sat, Jan 24 267 Northwestern St. 0 311 East Texas A&M 0   
Mon, Jan 26 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi 55 191 UT Rio Grande Valley 64   
Tue, Jan 27 83 McNeese St. 76 266 SE Louisiana 66   
Tue, Jan 27 267 Northwestern St. 67 107 Stephen F. Austin 69   
Tue, Jan 27 207 Lamar 82 311 East Texas A&M 61   
Tue, Jan 27 300 Houston Christian 81 240 Incarnate Word 75   
Tue, Jan 27 219 New Orleans 80 260 Nicholls St. 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 31 240 Incarnate Word 71 191 UT Rio Grande Valley 70 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 219 New Orleans 81 267 Northwestern St. 75 70%   
Sat, Jan 31 207 Lamar 66 83 McNeese St. 73 75%   
Sat, Jan 31 260 Nicholls St. 74 311 East Texas A&M 73 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 107 Stephen F. Austin 73 266 SE Louisiana 60 88%   
Sat, Jan 31 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi 73 300 Houston Christian 63 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 51.1 48.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 1.3 66.6 33.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.8 0.1 2.1 55.3 21.5 10.6 6.0 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8 0.0 0.4 23.4 26.6 19.2 13.8 9.2 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.0
Lamar 5.4 0.2 16.7 19.6 20.1 17.2 13.6 7.4 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
New Orleans 5.4 0.2 15.5 19.1 20.2 17.9 13.7 7.7 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
Incarnate Word 8.1 0.0 1.2 3.6 6.3 10.0 14.2 20.2 18.5 13.3 8.5 4.2
Nicholls St. 5.3 0.0 0.4 18.0 19.8 19.8 17.0 13.5 7.0 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
SE Louisiana 9.5 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.6 13.2 17.0 19.6 19.5 15.8
Northwestern St. 8.4 1.1 2.8 5.2 8.7 13.2 19.8 19.0 15.0 10.2 5.1
Houston Christian 9.7 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 5.9 10.8 17.2 21.9 22.3 16.6
East Texas A&M 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 8.7 13.7 18.6 23.4 29.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 23 - 6 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.3 17.4 29.2 29.2 13.7
Stephen F. Austin 19 - 3 24 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.9 13.6 23.8 27.0 20.2 7.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13 - 9 13 - 14 0.0 0.5 1.8 6.2 13.8 21.4 23.5 19.5 9.9 3.1 0.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 13 - 16 0.0 0.6 2.6 8.1 15.6 23.0 23.0 16.7 7.8 2.2 0.3
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 15 0.2 1.4 5.5 12.5 20.6 23.4 19.6 11.2 4.4 1.1 0.1
New Orleans 11 - 11 13 - 18 0.3 1.6 5.8 13.3 21.0 23.0 18.8 11.0 4.0 1.0 0.1
Incarnate Word 8 - 14 10 - 18 0.5 3.2 9.4 16.6 22.8 21.3 15.2 7.7 2.8 0.5 0.0
Nicholls St. 11 - 11 11 - 19 1.0 5.0 13.0 20.2 22.7 19.4 11.7 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
SE Louisiana 7 - 15 9 - 21 0.7 4.1 11.2 19.5 22.1 20.4 13.4 6.2 2.0 0.4 0.0
Northwestern St. 8 - 13 8 - 20 0.6 3.8 10.4 18.9 23.5 20.4 13.7 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.1
Houston Christian 7 - 15 9 - 20 3.8 12.5 22.6 24.7 19.5 10.7 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 6 - 15 9 - 20 1.9 8.1 18.2 24.4 23.0 14.9 6.9 2.2 0.4 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 51.1% 33.3 17.8 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 66.6% 48.8 17.8 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0
Lamar
New Orleans
Incarnate Word
Nicholls St. 0.0% 0.0
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Houston Christian
East Texas A&M


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.0% 55.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3 36.6 6.6 0.3 45.0 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 12.6 14.4 4.0 0.2 67.6 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 0.6 96.2 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.5 96.8 0.0%
Lamar 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 97.8 0.0%
New Orleans 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 98.4 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 99.3 0.0
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.0% 0.0% 55.0% 9.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 32.4% 0.0% 32.4% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%