TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #199
Pace 66.8 #235
Improvement +0.9 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #297 D- C- C C C
Defense #98 C+ C B+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 0.96 #357 -0.2 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #96 0.72 #231 +1.1 #120
Three Pointers 29% #357 0.94 #272 -7.1 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #342 -6.2 #342
Freethrows 0.34 #91 65% #353 0.22 #183
Second Chance 30.3% #196 0.98 #256 0.30 #215
Turnovers 16.7% #197
Total Offense -4.7 #297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.17 #201 -2.3 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.72 #114 +0.3 #165
Three Pointers 37% #279 0.90 #46 +4.0 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #119 +2.0 #119
Freethrows 0.38 #348 71% #112 0.27 #338
Second Chance 30.1% #158 1.06 #214 0.32 #186
Turnovers 19.9% #30
Total Defense +2.8 #98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #192 0.4% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.2% #348 -4.3% #99
Possession Length 18.5 #285 16.9 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.18 #205
Improvement +0.3 #161 +0.6 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.1% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 37.1% 42.4% 14.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 94.8% 77.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.7% 4.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Home) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 33 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 36 @SMU L 58 - 69 5% -2  0 - 1 +6 -8 F D- B +14 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 187 @Tarleton St. L 77 - 85 38% -13  0 - 2 -7 +6 D- C- B -13 F+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 17 @Kansas L 46 - 77 3% -19  0 - 3 -10 -17 F+ D- D +7 D- B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 63 @Oklahoma St. L 69 - 85 10% -9  0 - 4 -4 -7 F D C +4 C+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 79 @Xavier L 67 - 88 13% -12  0 - 5 -11 -5 F D A -4 C+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 207 @Lamar W 57 - 49 42% +1  1 - 5 1 - 0 +8 -5 D- C D- +15 B+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 69 20% -1  1 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 D C+ D -1 C- C+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 260 Nicholls St. L 71 - 76 73% -3  1 - 7 1 - 2 -13 +2 B- C D -16 F+ F B
 Wed, Dec 31 219 New Orleans W 83 - 69 67% +6  2 - 7 2 - 2 +8 +6 F A+ C+ +2 B B+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 63 - 59 39% +1  3 - 7 3 - 2 +5 -0 D- A- D+ +6 A+ B+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 300 @Houston Christian W 81 - 65 62% +8  4 - 7 4 - 2 +11 +5 D+ B+ C+ +6 B+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 267 @Northwestern St. L 78 - 79 54% +7  4 - 8 4 - 3 -4 +4 C- F+ A- -8 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 311 @East Texas A&M W 61 - 50 65% +5  5 - 8 5 - 3 +5 -9 F B- F +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 266 SE Louisiana W 68 - 56 75% +14  6 - 8 6 - 3 +3 -6 C- C+ F +9 C C+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 83 McNeese St. L 53 - 69 28% -6  6 - 9 6 - 4 -12 -9 D F A- -6 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Incarnate Word W 79 - 71 48% +10  7 - 9 7 - 4 +7 +7 B B F -0 F B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 55 - 64 62% -3  7 - 10 7 - 5 -14 -13 F F+ F+ -2 B+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 31 300 Houston Christian W 72 - 63 81%
 Mon, Feb 2 240 Incarnate Word W 70 - 65 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 260 @Nicholls St. W 71 - 70 51%
 Mon, Feb 9 219 @New Orleans L 73 - 74 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 207 Lamar W 68 - 64 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 107 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 68 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 83 @McNeese St. L 63 - 75 13%
 Mon, Feb 23 266 @SE Louisiana W 66 - 65 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 267 Northwestern St. W 72 - 65 74%
 Mon, Mar 2 311 East Texas A&M W 73 - 63 82%
Totals 13 - 14 13 - 9 -2 -5 D- C- C +3 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 7.3 17.5 18.2 9.1 2.3 0.1 55.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 10.5 5.6 1.1 0.0 21.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 2.8 0.4 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.8 6.2 13.8 21.4 23.5 19.5 9.9 3.1 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.3% 15.6% 15.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-6 3.1% 10.5% 10.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8
15-7 9.9% 7.6% 7.6% 13.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.2
14-8 19.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 18.5
13-9 23.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 22.6
12-10 21.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 21.0
11-11 13.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.6
10-12 6.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.1
9-13 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-14 0.5% 0.5
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.6 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%